1、 Price trend
According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the price of mixed xylene rose slightly this week. On April 4, the price of mixed xylene was 5460 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (April 11), the price was 5490 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton or 0.55% from last week.
2、 Analysis and comment
This week, Sinopec’s mixed xylene price adjustment range is + 50 / + 100 (yuan / ton). Xylene stocks at ports in East and South China fluctuated slightly this week. In the week, boosted by the increase of downstream PX inquiry, xylene mixed with xylene rose slightly. In terms of external market, as of April 9, the price of South Korea’s imported mixed xylene was 725 US dollars / ton, up 11 US dollars / ton or 1.54% on April 2, and the reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 745 US dollars / ton, up 15 US dollars / ton or 2.05% on April 2.
Crude oil, this week’s crude oil long short game, price shocks. Good news: US commercial crude oil inventory fell, China and US economic data were strong; bad news: OPEC + decided to gradually increase crude oil production, and the epidemic situation in Europe and other places was severe. On April 1, Brent rose 0.08 USD / barrel, or 0.13%; WTI fell 2.13 USD / barrel, or 3.46%.
Downstream, PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week was more stable than last week, the price was 6400 yuan / ton, up 48.84% year on year. The operation of domestic p-xylene units is stable as a whole, Sinopec and private enterprises are in normal operation, the on-site operation rate is more than 90%, the on-site supply is normal, and the goods are in good condition. As of April 9, closing prices in Asia were 786-788 USD / T FOB Korea and 804-806 USD / T CFR China.
In terms of PTA market, PTA prices in East China rose first and then fell this week, slightly lower than last week. On Sunday (April 11), the price was 4398.5 yuan / ton, 0.71% lower than last week, and 27.37% higher than the same period last year. As of April 9, PTA operation rate was 79%, slightly lower than last week. PTA processing is at a relatively low level, and the maintenance of the plant is increasing. At present, the start-up of PTA plant is below 80%, and the supply side will continue to shrink in April.
In the ox market, the price of ox this week was flat compared with last week. On Sunday, the price of ox in East China was 5400 yuan / ton, up 42.11% compared with the same period last year. Domestic supply of o-benzene is sufficient; the cost side is adjusted in a volatile way; the downstream market is adjusted in a volatile way, and the demand is just demand-oriented, so the transaction enthusiasm of o-benzene is general.
3、 Future forecast
Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.
Although the downstream inquiry increased, the overall demand has not improved substantially. In April, some refineries entered the spring inspection, and the market supply of unit maintenance decreased, which is expected to benefit the price of mixed xylene. However, the follow-up of downstream demand is still weak, and the wait-and-see sentiment of cargo holders is strong. It is expected that the short-term mixed xylene will still follow the fluctuation of crude oil. Focus on the impact of crude oil, gasoline blending price trend, xylene plant spring maintenance dynamic, port inventory and downstream demand changes on xylene price.
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