Market trend of magnesium market in 2020

On September 24, 2020, the price of magnesium ingot (99.9%, no pickling, simple packaging) in the main production areas of China will run weakly and stably, with the overall range of 12250-12550 yuan / ton, and the actual order negotiation is mainly discussed.

The specific price ranges of each region are as follows:

The ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu district is 12250-12400 yuan / ton; Taiyuan is 12400-12450 yuan / ton; Wenxi district is 12400-12550 yuan / ton; Ningxia area is 12350-12400 yuan / ton.

The magnesium ingot is the original magnesium ingot of national standard (GB / t3499-2011); it is not pickled, has no wooden pallet and does not pay the acceptance price, and the actual order negotiation is the main one.

 
According to the data of the business agency, the average price of the domestic market on the 24th was 12350 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.76% compared with the average price of 12700 yuan / ton at the beginning of September (9.1) and 14166.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of September (1.1), a decrease of 12.82%. Yesterday, the price of magnesium ingot began to stabilize, showing signs of rebound at the bottom.

The price of magnesium ingot will rebound to the bottom

At present, the market trading is slightly improved, and the downstream just needs to prepare goods for purchase. On the one hand, as the end of the month is approaching and the national day meets the Mid Autumn Festival, the double festival effect leads to an increase in the demand for goods preparation of downstream processing enterprises; on the other hand, due to the fact that the prices of some magnesium factories have been falling for a long time due to the consideration of cost factors, the willingness to support prices has increased.

Although the export side shipment is not good, relying on the supply and demand of the domestic market, the support for magnesium price is not strong. At present, the price is relatively low, the downward adjustment space of magnesium enterprises is narrowed, the influence of supply-demand factors on price is weakened, the influence factors of cost side are gradually enlarged, and the market expectation of magnesium ingot price bottoming is rising.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of September 23, the average price of domestic rubber grade silica was 4700 yuan / ton, and the domestic silica market rose slightly, up 1.44% compared with the beginning of the month.

The domestic rubber grade silica market has a small upward trend. At present, the shipment is smooth, the negotiation atmosphere is fair, and the demand is not general. The downstream just needs to purchase, and the merchants take the goods carefully, and the shipment is slow. At present, the gas phase silica price is about 22000 yuan / ton. The domestic supply and demand of fumed silica are balanced, and the shipment is slow. The Changtai micro nano factory in Shouguang City, Shandong Province, 5300 yuan / ton, Shandong Province Huaxin Materials Co., Ltd. 4600 yuan / ton, Boai Xiangsheng silicon powder Co., Ltd. 4000 yuan / ton.

The quotation of upstream hydrochloric acid market manufacturers is stable temporarily, the trading atmosphere is maintained at the early stage level, and the domestic hydrochloric acid market mainly operates stably.

The chemical index on September 22 was 731, up 1 point compared with yesterday, 28.05% lower than 1016 (2012-03-13), and 22.24% higher than 598, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Business agency silica analysts believe that: in the short term, the silica market continues to operate stably, and the overall focus is stable. (the above prices are provided by major silica manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by business silica analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

September has passed two-thirds, the three varieties of PE spot market are quite interesting, the overall trend is first up and then down. The main reason for the price increase in the first ten days is the shortage of LDPE goods. Petrochemical enterprises have raised the ex factory prices by a large margin, and the high-pressure varieties have risen rapidly, which is the peak since 2020. The other two major varieties of LLDPE and HDPE market are dominated by this positive. But after the middle of September, the high price of PE spot market is difficult to keep, the price is loose, and the three varieties have different degrees of decline.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 9837.50 yuan / ton on September 1 and 10187.50 yuan / ton on September 21, with an increase of 3.56% and 17.95% compared with August 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 7533.3 yuan / ton on September 1 and 7500.00 yuan / ton on September 21, with a decrease of 0.44% and an increase of 4.65% compared with August 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 8600.00 yuan / ton on September 1 and 8566.67 yuan / ton on September 21, a decrease of 0.39% and an increase of 5.76% over August 1.

Regional variety manufacturers rose and fell from September 1 to September 21

East China LLDPE 7042 Jilin Petrochemical Company 7500 yuan / ton 7500 yuan / ton 0

East China LLDPE 7042 Daqing Petrochemical Company 7500 yuan / ton 7500 yuan / ton 0

East China LLDPE 7042 Dushanzi Petrochemical Company 7500 yuan / ton 7500 yuan / ton 0

East China LDPE 2426h Daqing Petrochemical 9800 yuan / ton 10150 yuan / ton + 250 yuan

East China LDPE 2426h Lanzhou Petrochemical 9800 yuan / ton 10150 yuan / ton + 250 yuan

East China HDPE 5000S Daqing Petrochemical Company 8600 yuan / ton 8600 yuan / ton

East China HDPE 5000S Lanzhou Petrochemical Company 8600 yuan / ton 8600 yuan / ton

In early September, PE market continued to rise and LDPE returned to the era of 10000 yuan

The PE market rose sharply in late August, mainly due to the high-voltage market. Due to the large number of domestic equipment maintenance, and the import source can not be unloaded at the port, the supply of goods is tight. Large petrochemical plants have continuously raised the ex factory prices, and LDPE has risen rapidly. In September, LDPE, LLDPE and HDPE in East China showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with different ranges. Among them, the range of high-voltage products is the most prominent.

At the beginning of September, the PE spot market continued the upward trend in August and continued to take the lead. Among them, the high-pressure market is still the most obvious one, with a continuous price increase of 9.34% in the first five days of the month. LLDPE and HDPE market continued to follow the rise, but the range was not as prominent as LDPE. Subsequently, due to the negative factors in the market, the rise of PE market was limited, and the high price stable mode was opened. High pressure market for nearly 8 consecutive days, until September 13 loose. However, it is not easy for LLDPE and HDPE market to remain stable, and the decline is earlier than that of high pressure.

It’s not easy to keep stable, PE market has declined after the middle of the year

Since the end of last ten days, the PE market has declined to varying degrees. As can be seen from the above trend chart, LDPE prices are relatively strong, but LLDPE and HDPE have fallen to the prices before September 1. Due to the early high-pressure wire drawing rising too fast, this fall has become inevitable. Before the PE market fell, international crude oil has been in a continuous decline state, bringing obvious pressure on the market. And the futures market shocks downward, affecting the market mentality. Under the sufficient supply of domestic market, it is difficult for PE spot market to keep stable, and the offer fell.

At present, the market is still good. In terms of demand, September ushered in the peak season, with the increase of manufacturers’ orders, and the overall trading atmosphere of spot markets around the spot was improved, and the demand increased. Most traders are preparing for the coming National Day holiday, and the external price keeps rising, and the import price is supported to some extent. The operator’s mentality is good, the ability to receive goods is fair.

International crude oil rebounds sharply, good news for PE market

On September 16, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market rose sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at $40.16/barrel, up $1.88 or 4.90%. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, the main contract settlement price to 42.22 US dollars / barrel, up 1.69 US dollars or 4.16%. The sharp rise in oil prices was mainly due to the sharp decline in US crude oil and gasoline stocks, and the superposition of Hurricane “Sally” forced a large number of us oil production to be blocked.

Upstream ethylene external market has a strong recent rise

Due to the rebound of international crude oil, ethylene market ushered in a sharp rise, which brought certain support to the PE market. Asian ethylene market prices rose, as of the 17th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at $805-815 / T, CFR Southeast Asia closed at $755-765 / T. The European ethylene market price fluctuated and consolidated. As of the 17th, the European ethylene market price was FD, northwest Europe closed at 687-698 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe closed at 673-685 US dollars / ton. Ethylene prices in the U.S. rose to $523-535 per ton as of the 17th. Generally speaking, the ethylene market in Europe and the United States is on an upward trend. The demand for ethylene in the whole market is good, and the market continues to rise.

Futures market shock down mainly to the spot support is limited

On September 21, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2101 was 7375, the highest price was 7470, the lowest price was 7330, the closing price was 7425, the previous settlement price was 7365, the settlement price was 7410, up 60, or 0.81%, the trading volume was 267189, the position was 251755, and the daily increase was – 3565. (unit: yuan / ton)

PE market is easy to rise but difficult to fall

Although there are few maintenance enterprises in the market and the supply continues to grow slightly, most of the PE market stops falling and stabilizes. With the arrival of the traditional peak season of “gold, silver and ten”, the greenhouse film industry in the North has entered the peak season. The operating rate of downstream factories is gradually increasing, and the demand is still expected to increase. Moreover, the futures market and international crude oil rebounded, bringing certain benefits to the market. PE market is expected to continue the horizontal adjustment in the short term. In the long run, the market is easy to rise but difficult to fall.

International crude oil prices rebounded after the overall bottom stabilized, but the upward range was limited. However, the traditional demand peak season of “golden nine silver ten” asphalt market does not support the asphalt price. The price of domestic asphalt is rising steadily. According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, the asphalt price was reported to be 2405 yuan / ton on September 18, which was 0.42% higher than that at the beginning of the month.

Affected by the hurricane, crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico region declined for a short time. EIA data showed that the U.S. crude oil inventory decreased significantly, stimulating the rebound of international crude oil prices. However, Saudi Arabia lowered the official price of crude oil and faced the risk of a second outbreak in the world, resulting in weak market demand and limited increase in international oil prices.

The recent rainfall in Northeast, southwest and other regions has limited the rigid demand for asphalt; the weather in North China, central China and Northwest China is sunny, and the demand for asphalt driven by some projects is relatively stable. Although the market has entered the “golden nine silver ten” traditional demand peak season, due to the excessive supply, the market continues to be in a state of oversupply. At the same time, the international oil price rebound is not strong enough, the market bullish confidence support is insufficient, and the downstream stock is cautious.

This week, the domestic asphalt plant operating rate was 67%, a slight increase of 2% compared with last week. The asphalt plant operating rate continued to maintain a high level, and the refinery asphalt supply was sufficient.

According to the analysts of business agency, the rebound of international crude oil market is limited, and the upward trend of crude oil price is weak. However, in the peak season of “golden nine silver ten” asphalt traditional demand, the asphalt price is supported, and it is expected that the asphalt price will rise steadily.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China on September 14 was 533 yuan / ton, and that on September 18 was 536 yuan / ton. The price rose by 0.63% this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic price of ammonium sulfate is stable and small. The main ex factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 550-650 yuan / ton, that of Henan Province is 530-580 yuan / ton, that of Hebei Province is 470-530 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Province is 520-570 yuan / ton, that of East China is 550-650 yuan / ton, that of North China is 500-650 yuan / ton The main ex factory quotation of ammonium sulfate is 520-630 yuan / T.

This week, the downstream compound fertilizer market operating rate is low, the market is not good. Due to the support of raw material price, the price of compound fertilizer is firm. Compound fertilizer enterprises have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the overall operation is weak.

3、 Future forecast

Business agency ammonium sulfate analysts believe that the current domestic demand for coking grade ammonium sulfate Market is weak, and the market is mainly small shocks. The export of inner grade ammonium sulfate is stable and more orders are executed. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will fluctuate slightly in the short term.