On April 2, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 64.88, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.99% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), and up 33.99% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recent domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride has maintained a weak position, the market of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in eastern China has consolidated weakly, downstream factories have just needed to purchase, factory inventory pressure has continued, high-end transactions have been blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiations is 6500-6700 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations is 6400 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 6500-6700 yuan/ton, and the Main, the quotation trend of enterprises has slightly declined, downstream construction is not high, on-demand procurement is the main, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride plant operation is stable, phthalic anhydride spot supply is normal, the market is not good, phthalic anhydride prices remain low.

Recently, the executive price of the upstream product of phthalic anhydride, Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride, is 6800 yuan/ton. The actual market transaction price is 7100 yuan/ton. The quotation is stable and the port is out of stock. The upstream raw material mixed xylene price is stable, the turnover of phthalic anhydride is general, the stock of phthalic anhydride in port is low, the price of phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, the cost of imported phthalic anhydride is rising, the actual transaction price is discussed in detail, the upstream price trend is stable, and the market price of phthalic anhydride remains weak. DOP prices in the downstream are lower. Recently, in the DOP market in Zhejiang, the quotation of merchants has dropped to 8300-8400 yuan/ton, and the downstream price has slightly decreased. The demand for phthalic anhydride in the upstream is limited. The market price of phthalic anhydride has slightly decreased. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride in the later period will be around 6600 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

The propane Market oscillated upward in March. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of propane was 4067.5 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 497.5 yuan/ton. The average price of propane rose by 3.2% in the month, 8.55% higher than that of the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Propane prices fell first and then rose this month, the market atmosphere is general. As of March 29, propane from Dongming Petrochemical Company and Zhonghai Fine Chemical Company of Shandong Province were not quoted for the time being. The ex-factory price of propane in Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group Supply and Marketing Company is 4200 yuan/ton, Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group is 4230 yuan/ton, Shandong Huifeng Petrochemical Company is 4280 yuan/ton, Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Company is 4180 yuan/ton, Shandong Binzhou Dayou Group is 4250 yuan/ton, and Qingdao Petrochemical Company is the limited liability company of Sinopec. Propane ex-factory price is 402 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: In March, domestic liquefied petroleum gas market price first restrained and then increased, overall downward. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic liquefied gas market was 4100 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 3996.67 yuan/ton. The price fell by 2.52% in the month and increased by 10.21% compared with the same period last year. Domestic propylene (East China) prices fell sharply in March and then fell again. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic enterprises was 7290 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of domestic enterprises was 6965 yuan/ton. In the month, the price fell by 4.46%, which was 19.43% lower than that of the same period last year. In April, Saudi Arabia’s Amy CP: Propane 515 US dollars per ton, up 25% from last month. Butane is 535 dollars/ton, up 15% from last month.

In March, the propane Market showed a moderate performance, with price fluctuations rising. The trading atmosphere in the market is slightly better than last month. Influenced by the March CPC rise, prices rose slightly at the beginning of the month. But the good times are not long, the market demand is slow, and the price quickly returns to rationality. In addition, the market supply is abundant, the import gas is large, the manufacturer’s shipment is not long, and the price falls again. Price rebound since mid-term, supported by cost, and OPEC production reduction related news, provides a good atmosphere, the U.S. crude oil inventory continued to decline, the market mentality has also been supported, the manufacturers’mentality is strong, price rebound from mid-term, CPs expected to rise at the end of the month, prices continue to rise.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in March 2019, there were 19 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 8 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 11.4% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were formaldehyde (37%) (24.34%), hydrogen peroxide (24.29%) and trichloromethane (22.31%). There are 46 kinds of commodities falling in the ring ratio, and 20 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5% accounted for 28.6% of the monitored commodities in the plate. The products of the first three declines were isopropanol (-14.36%), acetone (-14.29%) and hydrochloric acid (-12.50%). This month’s average rise and fall was -1.12%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propane analysts at business associations believe that April’s rise in CPs has boosted the market and that prices may rise in the short term. However, the warming weather, market demand in the off-season, still holding prices up. The trend is expected to rise first and then fall in April.

On March 31, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 107.02, which was the same as yesterday. It was 9.63% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 38.32% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date)

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market has maintained a low level. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plants shut down more, and domestic ammonium nitrate plants started less. However, with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappeared. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles and the price trend in the field has declined. As of the 1st day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations in 1900-2100 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is weak.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, the market price is 1560 yuan/ton on the 1st day. The stable trend of nitric acid price has little effect on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate has slightly declined. The price trend of upstream raw material liquid ammonia is temporarily stable, and the market price of liquid ammonia is 3460 yuan/ton on the 1st day. The temporary stable trend of upstream raw material price has a certain positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market. Market price trends remained stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market has slightly declined due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the price of raw materials in the upstream market has risen slightly in the near future, but the demand in the downstream is not good, and the market price of ammonium nitrate in the later period is expected to be shocked.

Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of business associations, zinc prices rose sharply in March, rising by 5.40% in March, the biggest monthly increase in nearly a year. As of March 31, the price of zinc ingot was 23226.67 yuan/ton, which was 5.40% higher than that of 22036.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of March, and 6.49% lower than that of the same period last year. Overall, the market of zinc rose in March, and the market of zinc was good.

II. Market Trend Analysis

In terms of products:

As can be seen from the above chart, zinc prices rose sharply in March after changing the previous decline, and reached the biggest increase in one year. Zinc price rises, zinc trading activity increases, and the momentum for future market increases, which is good for future market.

Non-ferrous plate:

As can be seen from the K-line chart of the non-ferrous plate index, the overall fluctuation of the non-ferrous plate rose in 2019, and the market of the non-ferrous plate rose significantly in March, with the advantages outweighing the disadvantages. The industry as a whole rose, which was good for the market of zinc, and the overall motive force for the rise of zinc price was sufficient.

Data statistics:

According to the data released by the Statistical Commission of Kazakhstan, the output of zinc in Kazakhstan decreased by 4.0% from January to February, the output of zinc in Kazakhstan decreased, and the supply of zinc in Kazakhstan decreased, which is good for the price of zinc.

According to data from Peru’s Ministry of Energy and Mining, the output of zinc minerals in Las Bambas mine of MMG company dropped 7.8% in January from a year earlier to 10,1604 tons. The data show that the supply of zinc minerals in Peru fell in January, which has a positive impact on the future zinc market.

Vinneth Bajaj, a senior mining analyst at Global Data, points out that global zinc production has increased to 13.2 million tons in 2017 and 13.4 million tons in 2018, respectively, following a sharp decline in 2016. In 2018, Australia’s zinc production grew by 9.9%, Peru’s by 8.5%, India’s by 7.9% and the United States by 5.9%. In China, zinc production has declined by 1% due to environmental protection measures. As China is the world’s largest producer of zinc, global zinc production is 1.1 million tons less than the global total demand of 14.5 million tons. Demand for zinc in Belgium, China, Germany and the United States has been growing.

Overseas enterprises:

Glencore said Friday it had suspended mining and development operations at the McArthur River zinc mine in northern Australia in preparation for the coming hurricane. The approaching hurricane will restrict the opening and transportation of mines in Australia, which will affect the supply of zinc ingots for a period of time in the future. The shortage of zinc supply in the near future will bring about significant benefits to zinc prices in the future.

Empire State Mine, which sent a possible layoff notice to 87 miners, said it would continue to invest in mine development and exploration after layoffs and match its staffing with planned mining activities. But layoffs will inevitably affect mining, zinc supply will be affected by the decline, the overall supply of zinc will have a favorable impact on the price of zinc.

Noranda Income Fund said that in March, international traders and miners Glencore had signed a zinc processing fee agreement with them for the next year, but did not disclose the specific costs. Meanwhile, Noranda said in a statement: “Processing fees have rebounded in the past few months, but the pricing environment may continue to fluctuate.” The trend of spot processing fees is the best example of the increase in zinc concentrate supply. Processing fees for zinc concentrates in the spot market have risen above $200, to $30 per ton at the beginning of last year. Increasing processing cost of zinc concentrate is beneficial to zinc price in the future market.

Laws and regulations:

Yunnan Provincial Department of Ecology and Environment issued the “Yunnan Province Solid Waste Pollution Control Implementation Plan” clearly, by 2020, Yunnan Province will achieve the whole process of solid waste supervision. By 2020, the discharge of heavy metals from key industries in Yunnan Province will be 12% lower than that in 2013, and the comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste will strive to reach more than 56%. The key areas of solid waste pollution control in Yunnan Province include 11 key areas of heavy metal pollution prevention and control in countries, and areas with prominent problems of heavy metal pollution in cultivated land. The key industries include: heavy non-ferrous metal ore (including associated ore) mining and processing industry (copper, lead-zinc, nickel-cobalt, tin, antimony, gold and mercury mining and processing industry), heavy non-ferrous metal smelting industry (copper, lead-zinc, nickel-cobalt, tin, antimony, gold and mercury smelting, etc.). The government has strengthened the governance of heavy metal industry, which is bound to restrict the supply of non-ferrous metals industry. The price of non-ferrous metals has risen, and the market of zinc is good.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business associations, believes that the recent good news of zinc market both at home and abroad continues, although it can not fundamentally change the relationship between supply and demand in zinc city, but it still increases the speed and momentum of future market growth in zinc city. In the international market, Australia’s suspension of zinc mining and transportation due to hurricanes, the reduction of zinc supply in Kazakhstan, the layoffs of Empire Mining Company of the United States, and the increase of zinc concentrate processing fees have all had a positive impact on the rise of zinc prices; Looking back at the domestic market, the state has intensified efforts to prevent and control heavy metal pollution, and environmental protection measures have affected the start-up of zinc mining enterprises, which has a greater impact on zinc production in the city Likon, China is the world’s largest zinc producer. The decline in China’s zinc production has led to insufficient international zinc supply, which has a significant positive impact on the rise of zinc prices. In 2019, the international economic environment warmed up and the demand for zinc increased. The supply of zinc in the city was still in short supply. The future zinc market had sufficient momentum to rise. The overall international and domestic positive news has a strong impact on zinc prices in the future, which is expected to be volatile in the future.

Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of business associations, DOP prices have suddenly increased slightly this week after changing the previous downward trend. As of March 28, the price of DOP in East China was 8366.67 yuan/ton, up 2.24% from 8183.33 yuan/ton last weekend. DOP prices recovered slightly this week.

II. Market Analysis

Product analysis

DOP market demand is strong this week, but the start-up rate of DOP equipment in plasticizer enterprises remains high. Overall market demand and supply are booming, market demand is still acceptable, but at the same time, supply is sufficient, overall plasticizer DOP market is maintained, DOP price has no driving force to support.

Analysis of Industrial Chain

As can be seen from the chart above, the price of octanol has suddenly risen this week, which has led to the rise of DOP prices. Owing to the overhaul of sudden equipment failure in octanol enterprises last weekend, the supply of octanol was tight, the price of octanol was rising, and the price of upstream octanol was good for DOP. The price of octanol rose by 1.29% this week, which had a significant impact on the plasticizer DOP. Trading in the market is good, but the rise in raw material prices and DOP costs has led to an urgent price increase for DOP enterprises, and overall future plasticizer DOP is good.

3. Future Market Forecast

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business association, thinks that the DOP market demand is good at present, but the DOP equipment of plasticizer manufacturer keeps high start-up rate, sufficient supply and stable DOP market; the price of raw material octanol rises, and the cost of DOP rises, but because the equipment overhaul capacity of octanol enterprise has little effect on the overall market, the shortage price rises in the short term, but the price of octanol rises not. Can continue, future octanol prices are still mainly stable, overall future DOP cost is stable, future plasticizer DOP market performance is still booming supply and demand, DOP market is stable, DOP future price is stable.