Price Trend
The propane Market oscillated upward in March. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of propane was 4067.5 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 497.5 yuan/ton. The average price of propane rose by 3.2% in the month, 8.55% higher than that of the same period last year.
II. Analysis of Influencing Factors
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Products: Propane prices fell first and then rose this month, the market atmosphere is general. As of March 29, propane from Dongming Petrochemical Company and Zhonghai Fine Chemical Company of Shandong Province were not quoted for the time being. The ex-factory price of propane in Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group Supply and Marketing Company is 4200 yuan/ton, Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group is 4230 yuan/ton, Shandong Huifeng Petrochemical Company is 4280 yuan/ton, Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Company is 4180 yuan/ton, Shandong Binzhou Dayou Group is 4250 yuan/ton, and Qingdao Petrochemical Company is the limited liability company of Sinopec. Propane ex-factory price is 402 yuan/ton.
Industry chain: In March, domestic liquefied petroleum gas market price first restrained and then increased, overall downward. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic liquefied gas market was 4100 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 3996.67 yuan/ton. The price fell by 2.52% in the month and increased by 10.21% compared with the same period last year. Domestic propylene (East China) prices fell sharply in March and then fell again. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic enterprises was 7290 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of domestic enterprises was 6965 yuan/ton. In the month, the price fell by 4.46%, which was 19.43% lower than that of the same period last year. In April, Saudi Arabia’s Amy CP: Propane 515 US dollars per ton, up 25% from last month. Butane is 535 dollars/ton, up 15% from last month.
In March, the propane Market showed a moderate performance, with price fluctuations rising. The trading atmosphere in the market is slightly better than last month. Influenced by the March CPC rise, prices rose slightly at the beginning of the month. But the good times are not long, the market demand is slow, and the price quickly returns to rationality. In addition, the market supply is abundant, the import gas is large, the manufacturer’s shipment is not long, and the price falls again. Price rebound since mid-term, supported by cost, and OPEC production reduction related news, provides a good atmosphere, the U.S. crude oil inventory continued to decline, the market mentality has also been supported, the manufacturers’mentality is strong, price rebound from mid-term, CPs expected to rise at the end of the month, prices continue to rise.
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Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in March 2019, there were 19 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 8 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 11.4% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were formaldehyde (37%) (24.34%), hydrogen peroxide (24.29%) and trichloromethane (22.31%). There are 46 kinds of commodities falling in the ring ratio, and 20 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5% accounted for 28.6% of the monitored commodities in the plate. The products of the first three declines were isopropanol (-14.36%), acetone (-14.29%) and hydrochloric acid (-12.50%). This month’s average rise and fall was -1.12%.
3. Future Market Forecast
Propane analysts at business associations believe that April’s rise in CPs has boosted the market and that prices may rise in the short term. However, the warming weather, market demand in the off-season, still holding prices up. The trend is expected to rise first and then fall in April.
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