On March 17, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 66.50, unchanged from yesterday, down 44.64% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), and up 37.34% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, the market of phthalic anhydride in eastern China is weak and consolidated, downstream factories are just in need of purchasing, the inventory pressure of factories is persistent, high-end transactions are blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring method source negotiation is 6600-6900 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene method source negotiation is 6500-6600 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in northern China is 6500-6800 yuan/ton, and the Main, the quotation trend of enterprises has slightly declined, downstream construction is not high, purchase on demand is the main, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride plant operation is stable, phthalic anhydride spot supply is normal, the market is not good, phthalic anhydride price trend remains weak.

Recently, the executive price of the upstream product of phthalic anhydride, Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride, is 6800 yuan/ton. The actual market transaction price is 7100 yuan/ton. The quotation is stable and the port is out of stock. Upstream raw materials mixed xylene price shocks maintain stability, phthalic turnover is general, port phthalic inventory is low, phthalic external quotation rises, import phthalic cost rises, the actual transaction price talks in detail, upstream price trend is stable, phthalic anhydride market prices remain volatile. DOP price downstream shocks. Recently, in Zhejiang DOP market, merchants’quotations are maintained at 8650-8700 yuan/ton, while downstream prices are at a low level. Demand for upstream phthalic anhydride is limited, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is slightly lower. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will be around 6800 yuan/ton in the later period.

Recently, calls for the extension of OPEC and its allies’existing oil production cuts to the end of this year have intensified. The Joint Ministerial Production Reduction Supervisory Committee of OPEC and allies, which oversees the performance of oil-producing countries, is scheduled to meet in late March in Azerbaijani. Meanwhile, the major oil producers, led by OPEC, will meet in Vienna from April 17 to 18 to review the current production reduction plan. At present, the market generally believes that the joint production reduction measures of OPEC and non-OPEC countries will continue until the end of 2019, but because of the deterioration of the global economic environment will lead to the reduction of oil demand and other factors, oil prices will not rise significantly in the future.

Consider extending the cut-off agreement

Saudi Arabia proposes to extend the existing oil production reduction agreement until the end of 2019, according to a source close to OPEC quoted by the Russian Tass Agency and the International Telegraph Agency. The news pushed up international oil prices on the 12th. By the end of the day, light crude oil futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange had risen 0.14% to close at $56.87 a barrel, while London Brent crude oil futures for May delivery had risen 0.14% to close at $66.67 a barrel.

The Tass news agency reported that Saudi Arabia preferred to maintain existing provisions or “a more relaxed quota for production cuts”. The International Telegraph Agency revealed that the major oil producers, led by OPEC, will meet in Vienna from April 17 to 18 to consider whether to extend the cut-off agreement until the second half of this year, and that countries will meet again at the end of June to discuss production issues.

According to the confirmation of the Ministry of Energy of Azerbaijani, Russian Energy Minister Nowaka confirmed that he would attend the 13th Joint Ministerial Meeting of OPEC and Allied Countries in Baku, capital of Azerbaijani, from 17 to 18 March, which would discuss the current level of production reduction.

Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources, Khalid Falkh, said on November 11 that OPEC-led production cuts are unlikely to end by June. Another Saudi official also said the country planned to keep crude oil production well below 10 million barrels a day in April and cut exports to less than 7 million barrels a day to ease the problem of excess oil supply. Karsten Fritsch, an analyst at the German Commercial Bank, said this showed Saudi Arabia’s determination to maintain the balance of the oil market by keeping oil supplies tight.

On December 7, last year, OPEC reached an agreement with non-OPEC oil-producing countries to reduce the production of crude oil by an average of 1.2 million barrels per day from January 1, 2019, on the basis of last October’s production, with a preliminary set period of six months. Saudi Arabia’s target output is about 10.3 million barrels per day.

But according to foreign media reports, Saudi oil production in January was 10.24 million barrels per day, fell to 10.13 million barrels per day in February, and will further decline to 9.8 million barrels per day in March.

Previously published OPEC February report showed that from December last year to January this year, OPEC has achieved the largest reduction in output for two consecutive months, with Saudi Arabia leading the way. Falh promised to increase production cuts, suggesting that Saudi Arabia’s output would be nearly 500,000 barrels a day lower than the quota by March this year. According to a survey released last week by S&P Global Platz, OPEC output fell to its lowest level in nearly four years in February.

Falkh has been advocating an extension of the cut-off agreement from the beginning of this year to the end of the year. Farleh said on February 27 that before reaching a reduction agreement at the end of last year, “OPEC and its allies” experienced a significant increase in production, which directly led to the supply of crude oil did not decline, but the stock of crude oil increased sharply. “We are committed to balancing the market, and according to the market outlook, we must continue to control production in the second half of the year,” Fallich said. But at the same time, we will continue to be flexible and make decisions based on assessing market conditions.

Insufficient momentum for continued oil price rise

Since this year, the two major international oil prices have changed their declining trend in the fourth quarter of last year and both have risen by more than 20%. However, in a recent survey conducted by Reuters, respondents expected the average price of Brent crude oil futures in 2019 to be $66.44 per barrel, lower than the expected $67.32 a month ago. The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA), a statistical agency affiliated to the U.S. Department of Energy, released a short-term energy outlook report on December 12, predicting that the global average price of Brent crude oil in 2019 will be $63 per barrel, and will fall to $62 per barrel in 2020, much lower than the $71 per barrel in 2018. Some analysts believe that such expectations mean that oil prices will not rise much this year.

Market participants believe that the current level of international oil prices reflects the relationship between supply and demand in the market. Before the emergence of new stimulus factors, the possibility of a sharp rise in crude oil prices is minimal. Richard Gori, head of Asia operations at JBC Energy in Austria, believes that current oil prices are in a “pleasant” price range for both oil producers and consumers.

As far as the relationship between supply and demand is concerned, on the one hand, the supply of crude oil decreases and increases mutually; on the other hand, the growth rate of crude oil demand may slow down.

Over the past two months, OPEC’s output has declined sharply and the action of oil-producing countries to reduce production has been further strengthened, which is an important factor in maintaining stable oil prices. However, crude oil production in the United States and Canada is still rising.

On the demand side, the demand for international crude oil has decreased due to the expansion of new energy applications and other factors. Relevant agency data show that U.S. manufacturing data is weak, and crude oil demand in the U.S. market is now weak at the end of last year. In addition, international agencies’expectations for economic growth this year have been lowered, and global economic growth in 2019 will be slower than in 2018, which will reduce demand expectations for crude oil. OPEC forecasts that global economic growth will not exceed expectations this year and that global demand will fall to 30.59 million barrels per day in 2019. Gene McGillian, an analyst at Traditional Energy, said concerns about slowing economic growth and reduced oil demand had put pressure on international oil prices, which could offset the boost from OPEC’s crude oil supply cuts.

Overall pattern or change of international oil and gas industry

Later this year, the United States will surpass Saudi Arabia in exports of petroleum products such as oil, gas condensate and gasoline, CNN reported. Reported that, driven by the boom of shale industry, the United States will become the world’s major exporter of oil and gas condensate. Driven by the shale industry, U.S. oil production has more than doubled in the past 10 years, reaching its highest level ever.

EIA estimates that US crude oil production will average 12.3 million barrels per day throughout 2019 and increase to 13 million barrels by 2020. Meanwhile, EIA expects net imports of crude oil from the United States to fall to 1 million barrels per day in 2019 and further to fall to 100,000 barrels per day in 2020. EIA believes that in the fourth quarter of 2020, the United States is expected to become a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products.

On November 11, Fatih Birol, Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said at Cambridge Energy Week: “The second wave of the shale oil revolution in the United States is coming, which will affect the overall pattern of the international oil and gas industry.” Birol pointed out that since 2018, the United States has led the growth of global oil supply. By the end of 2024, U.S. oil exports are expected to increase to 9 million barrels a day, exceeding Russia’s, approaching Saudi Arabia’s level, and diversifying the global oil supply side.

Battery Terminal Market

On March 8, the official website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the 2nd batch of “Catalogue of Recommended Vehicle Types for Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles” in 2019. A total of 84 models were selected, including 83 pure electric products and only one plug-in hybrid product. According to the battery technology, there are 49 lithium iron phosphate batteries, accounting for 58%; 31 ternary batteries, accounting for 37%; 3 lithium manganate batteries, and 1 multi-component lithium battery. This time, the number of lithium iron phosphate batteries is double that of ternary batteries, which is also the reason for the high proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the catalogue.

Upstream raw material prices:

Cobalt: Spot price of cobalt sulfate declined rapidly, low-price supply increased, aggravating market panic, downstream wait-and-see sentiment became stronger. The factory quotes about 55,000 yuan, and the actual transaction sticks to the 50,000 yuan/ton pass. Recent inquiries in the cobalt market have increased, but the intended price is low. It is far from the producer’s offer. The trading center in the buyer’s market has gradually moved down.

Lithium: The market mentality is generally pessimistic about the price of lithium salts. The downstream cathode material manufacturers adopt a small number of modes to purchase lithium carbonate, even long orders are not locked in order to prevent price changes. NEWS: On March 13, Altura announced its entry into commercial production. Its lithium concentrate, with a capacity of 220,000 tons, was first shipped out in October 18. In recent weeks, the production capacity has climbed to 84% of the design capacity, and has reached 95% since March. Gravity separation and flotation have been gradually optimized, and the recovery rate has increased from 57% to 67%, gradually approaching the target of 80%.

Positive Material: The market of lithium iron phosphate is warmer than that of the same period last year. Whether the start-up rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode material manufacturers is increasing, or the demand for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials in battery factories is increasing. Compared with long orders, spot transactions are less. Although the subsidy policy was introduced, the lithium iron phosphate cathode material factory said it did not feel that there was a significant change in purchasing for downstream battery factories.

On March 12, the rare earth index was 342 points, down 1 point from yesterday, down 65.80% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 26.20% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of Neodymium in rare earth metals is 380,000 yuan per ton, dysprosium metal is 168,000 yuan per ton and praseodymium metal is 660,000 yuan per ton. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides is 292.5 million yuan per ton, dysprosium oxide is 1.33 million yuan per ton, praseodymium oxide is 397.5 million yuan per ton and neodymium oxide is 297.5 million yuan per ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 377.5 million yuan per ton, and the average price of dysprosium and iron alloys is 1.33 million yuan per ton.

In recent years, the market of rare earth has been rising and falling mutually, the domestic rare earth market is cold, the price of most commodities in the rare earth market is stable, dysprosium and terbium varieties will be affected by the expectation that the market will be limited after the import of Myanmar mines. Market participants are more optimistic about the price of heavy and heavy rare earth. Holders are reluctant to sell them. Businessmen have increased their inquiries for dysprosium and terbium series products, and dysprosium and ferroalloy prices have increased, but neodymium and terbium alloys prices have increased. Series of products are in poor market, there is sufficient supply on the market, and prices continue to fall. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to environmental protection supervision in the whole country. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazard of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision stricter. Under stringent environmental protection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a decline in the market of rare earth oxides, making the price of rare earth products firm. Especially for some mainstream rare earth oxides, the supply performance is tight, the price trend of some commodities in the rare earth market is stable, the willingness of large enterprise groups to limit production in the near future, the market of rare earth has improved, but for the pricing of products, major manufacturers are cautious to wait and see. Recent rare earth export market is general, resulting in normal import volume, but due to limited turnover, because rare earth has been at a low level for a long time.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department began to check strictly, which has a great impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a low start and the market is cold. Prior to this, six departments of Jiangxi Province, a major producer of rare earth, jointly issued a special action document on cracking down on rare earth blacks. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and the trading market of the rare earth industry has been cold.

Rare earth analysts of business associations expect that the recent domestic environmental stringent inspection efforts will not decrease, coupled with the domestic reorganization of the order of the inhalation industry, which will provide some favorable support for the rare earth industry, but the rare earth industry turnover is cool, praseodymium and neodymium products are down, and the market price of rare earth is expected to remain low.

On March 11, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 66.83, down 0.65 points from yesterday, down 44.37% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), and up 38.02% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has been slightly lower, the market of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in eastern China is weaker, downstream factories are in need of purchasing, factory inventory pressure continues, high-end transactions are blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiations is 6600-6900 yuan/ton, the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations is 6500-6600 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in northern China is 6500-6800 yuan/ton, the market is weak. The price of phthalic anhydride in China is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price of phthalic anhydride is declining.

Recently, the executive price of the upstream product of phthalic anhydride, Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride, is 6800 yuan/ton. The actual market transaction price is 7100 yuan/ton. The quotation is stable and the port is out of stock. Upstream raw materials mixed xylene price shocks maintain stability, phthalic turnover is general, port phthalic inventory is low, phthalic external quotation rises, import phthalic cost rises, the actual transaction price talks in detail, upstream price trend is stable, phthalic anhydride market prices remain volatile. DOP price downstream shocks. Recently, in Zhejiang DOP market, merchants’quotations are maintained at 8650-8700 yuan/ton, while downstream prices are at a low level. Demand for upstream phthalic anhydride is limited, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is slightly lower. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will be around 6800 yuan/ton in the later period.