On March 10, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 98.53, which was the same as yesterday. It was 29.84% lower than the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and 83.86% higher than the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the recent domestic hydrofluoric acid market price trend is temporarily stable, up to 11 days, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price is 10858.33 yuan/ton, the domestic hydrofluoric acid start-up rate is more than 60%, enterprises reflect that the current spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal, the recent situation of on-site goods is general, some enterprises have increased hydrofluoric acid inventory, factory prices remain low, due to recent price shocks in the raw material market. The market price of hydrofluoric acid is stable for the time being. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 10,000-11,000 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 10,500-11,000 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices remain low, spot supply is sufficient, due to the recent upward trend in the raw material market, fluorite price trend is temporarily stable, for hydrofluoric acid has some favorable support, hydrofluoric acid market price trend is temporarily stable.

Recent downstream refrigerant product units started to rise, upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand has increased, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product prices temporarily stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 70%, R22 refrigerant facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise’s bulk water ex-factory offer price rises to 18500-19000 yuan/ton, but there is no bulk water spot in the production enterprise, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has risen, and the delivery market has risen. The domestic market price of R134a has risen slightly, the start-up rate of production enterprises has remained low, the refrigerant market demand is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price has not changed much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the improvement of the goods, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable.

Refrigerant on-site transactions have risen, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate has increased, for the upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand may increase, coupled with the upstream fluorite price has an upward trend, March is the peak season of air conditioning production, the downstream refrigeration industry is expected to rise, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may be slightly higher.

According to Hart Energy News, the latest analysis by Stratas Advisors shows that despite the slowdown in global gasoline sales growth, global gasoline demand is expected to continue to grow by 2020.

The number of newly registered vehicles is larger than that of scrapped vehicles. Stratas Advisors predicts that gasoline production will continue to grow as new gasoline production comes online in the next few years and as global refining capacity continues to invest and expand.

Christopher Brown, manager of Stratas Advisors Global Automotive Services, said: “In the short term, new registrations in the automotive industry are closely related to macroeconomic indicators. We have seen a slight decrease in the number of new car registrations in the world, and their economies have stabilized or begun to retreat.

He added: “Vehicle growth, power system changes and economic prospects will all affect gasoline demand across the country. Globally, vehicle dynamic changes tend to be slower than new vehicle registration, so slowing down new vehicle registration does not necessarily mean that the country’s total demand for gasoline is declining.

According to Dow Jones Sao Paulo, Brazil’s oil production declined in January compared with last month as two production platforms were shut down for maintenance reasons.

Brazil’s National Petroleum Administration (ANP) said Thursday that daily oil production fell by 2.2% to 2.6 million barrels in January and natural gas production dropped by 0.4% to 113 million cubic meters. According to ANP, oil production increased by 0.6% compared with January 2018, and natural gas production increased by 0.7% over the same period.

According to ANP, the offshore production platforms of P-74 and FPSO Cidade So Paulo in Buzios and Sapiinhoa oilfields closed for maintenance in January this year.

In January this year, Brazil’s daily production of the subsalt oil field dropped 2.7% from December last year to 1.8 million barrels.

Price Trend

According to data from business associations, the average price of n-butanol as of March 6 was 7016.67 yuan/ton (including tax). At present, the mainstream domestic price of n-butanol is 6900-7100 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Downstream start high, n-butanol market stable operation, low-end price smooth transaction, the recent overall supply and demand balance.

3. Future Market Forecast

Forecast: In the short term, the stability of n-butanol market is dominant.

The big import contract of potassium chloride in 2018 has many “conditions” in itself, which makes it more difficult to forecast the big import contract in 2019. First, the big contract of 2018 is not only signed in the second half of the year, but also two months later than the previous two years; secondly, not only later than India, but also the price is equal to India; thirdly, unlike other suppliers, the supply time of potassium and black potassium is only signed until the end of 2018. It can be seen that the big contract of 2018 has a bit of confusing flavor. The author has limited ability. In fact, I don’t want to think too much about the big contract of 2019 too early. But recently, there are rumors that foreign businessmen are going to raise us another 60 dollars. Think about it, I’d better simply say that.

Firstly, there is no official report on this matter, so it is likely to be just a false or misinformed news! ___________ It’s false news, maybe it’s the recent fall of potassium chloride, so some shippers put out this news to disturb the market’s eyes, hoping to stabilize the decline; it’s a misinformation, who mentioned that the big contract in 2018 rose by 60 dollars, but somebody thought it was the big contract in 2019, after all, it’s now 2019, or maybe someone mentioned our country. C.I.F. prices are 50 to 60 dollars lower than the high-end prices in the international market, and then the people who hear think foreigners are going to give us another raise. In short, no matter what the misinformation is, it is likely to be false in the end.

Second, even if we have to talk about it, why is it up by $60? At the time of signing the big contract in 2018, the price of $290 was equivalent to the apparent cost of 62% of white potassium in the port, which was about 2,370 yuan, while the market price at that time was close to 2,500 yuan, which had risen all the way from a slightly lower level of 2,200 yuan in May. But now the price of 62% white potassium in the port has fallen to about 2400 yuan, from December to now, and it is still possible to continue. How can the price of white potassium increase by 60 dollars in this case?

Moreover, the price of the international potash fertilizer market as a whole has been quiet for a whole quarter, and there were some signs of a slight decline last week. How can we possibly increase another $60 even if they don’t fall in the face of the $350 of Brazilian Granules and the $300-305 of Southeast Asian Standard Potassium?

Third, domestic competition is fierce, but international competition is not ambiguous! At present, the international potash fertilizer market is still oversupply after all, and the previous price increases have made the producers taste sweet, and have accelerated the construction of new projects. It is said that in 2019, many domestic traders want to “promote” to the front line, even if they lose a little, they may have to do a large share. A similar situation is bound to emerge in the international market. In the big contract negotiations in 2019, foreign businessmen are not necessarily monolithic!

In fact, there are some details that I did not mention, such as the domestic potassium production plan, apparent consumption changes, etc., but at least for now, the negotiation of the large potassium chloride contract in 2019 has neither reached the time of the talks nor can it be a rise of $60. For potassium chloride, which has fallen more than expected after the Spring Festival, it is unrealistic to expect big contract negotiations to rescue the market at this time, and it is unrealistic to expect an outbreak of demand. It’s warm this spring, but it’s cold this spring. Only when everyone sweats and digests the excess pressure, can potassium chloride regain its fitness.