According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on January 21, in December 2018, the value added of industries above the scale increased by 5.7% compared with the year before, and by 0.54% annually. Among them, the manufacturing of chemical raw materials and chemicals increased by 1.8%.

In three categories, in December, the value-added of mining industry increased by 3.6% year-on-year, 1.3 percentage points faster than in November; the manufacturing industry increased by 5.5% and fell by 0.1 percentage points; and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water increased by 9.6% and fell by 0.2 percentage points.

In terms of economic types, in December, the added value of state-owned holding enterprises increased by 3.6%, collective enterprises decreased by 1.4%, joint-stock enterprises increased by 7.0%, and foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan-invested enterprises increased by 1.7%. In December, 37 of the 41 major industries maintained year-on-year growth in value added. Among them, agricultural and sideline food processing industry grew by 5.9%, textile industry by 0.2%, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry by 1.8%, non-metallic mineral products industry by 8.8%, ferrous metal smelting and calendering industry by 9.2%, non-ferrous metal smelting and calendering industry by 13.2%, general equipment manufacturing industry by 6.5%, special equipment manufacturing industry by 11.7%, automobile manufacturing industry by 4.1%. Railway, ship, aerospace and other transport equipment manufacturing industry grew by 13.8%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry by 10.1%, computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry by 10.5%, and power, thermal production and supply industry by 8.3%.

Regionally, in December, the added value of the eastern region increased by 5.0%, the central region by 8.3%, the western region by 7.7%, and the northeastern region by 7.5%.

In December, 330 of 596 products increased year-on-year. Among them, 93.65 million tons of steel, an increase of 9.1%; 18.89 million tons of cement, an increase of 4.3%; 5.08 million tons of ten non-ferrous metals, an increase of 10.0%; 1.6 million tons of ethylene, a decrease of 0.1%; 25.26 million cars, a decrease of 14.9%, of which 103 million cars, a decrease of 17.1%; 620 billion kWh of electricity generation, an increase of 6.2%; 51.17 million tons of crude oil processing, an increase of 44%.

In December, the product sales rate of industrial enterprises was 98.5%, down 0.3 percentage points from the same month last year. Industrial enterprises realized export delivery value of 1174.9 billion yuan, an increase of 4.1% over the same period last year.

In the whole year of 2018, the value-added of industries above scale increased by 6.2% year on year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.1 percentage points from January to November.

The Trump government’s continued permission to export Iranian oil may be another catalyst for this year’s decline in oil prices.

Brian Hook, the Trump administration’s special representative for Iran, refused to make clear over the weekend whether the White House would impose stricter sanctions on Iranian oil exports.

“We do not intend to grant any exemptions or exceptions to Iranian crude oil imports,” Hook said at the Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum 2019 in Abu Dhabi last weekend. But when asked by CNBC whether the government would extend the exemption, he said he could not answer the question:

“I can only say that we believe that when we have a better oil market, it will put us in a much better environment, thus speeding up the realization of zero Iranian crude oil exports.”

Market analysis points out that Hook’s comments indicate that the U.S. government’s decision to impose sanctions will depend to some extent on the price of crude oil.

Michael Cohen, head of energy market research at Barclays, said: “I think this administration has made it clear to some of us that there has been a relationship between oil prices and the implementation of sanctions for some time.”

Cohen had previously pointed out that crude oil prices below $60 a barrel would encourage the Trump government to impose more stringent sanctions to force buyers to cut off imports from Iran, while a rebound in oil prices above $80 a barrel could force the government to allow large quantities of Iranian crude oil to enter the market.

However, some analyses point out that the link between oil prices and exemptions from sanctions is to some extent a smokescreen.

Amos Hochstein, a former international energy envoy, said the real reason Trump’s government approved the exemption was that it could not reach an agreement with some of Iran’s biggest customers to stop buying oil from the Islamic Republic. Hochstein was responsible for sanctions against Iran under former US President Barack Obama.

According to Hochstein, this increases the possibility that the United States will be forced to sanction Chinese or Indian companies:

The reason is that if you don’t grant immunity and someone is importing, then you have to sanction them, and you may not want to sanction them.

Hook had previously stressed that the exemption was intended to allow countries to continue buying Iranian crude oil as long as they proved they were reducing their purchases.

But Hochstein argues that these so-called exemptions actually encourage countries to continue buying Iranian oil:

If a country reduces its crude oil imports to zero, it will not be able to import Iranian crude oil again until sanctions are lifted.

The real question is not how much exemption you give, but how many countries continue to import.

China, India, Turkey and South Korea have imported crude oil from Iran since the resumption of sanctions on November 5, according to data from ClipperData, an oil tanker tracking company.

ClipperData said China accounted for the largest share, with crude oil imports of 576,000 barrels a day in December. South Korea resumed its crude oil purchases this month, with recent imports of 300,000 barrels a day.

Japanese economic news had previously reported that Japan intended to resume oil imports from Iran as early as this month.

Nevertheless, Reuters reports that Iran’s daily oil production has dropped sharply from 2.5 million barrels before sanctions began last year to less than 1 million barrels.

According to foreign news on January 16, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) released a report on Wednesday showing that:

Copper:

From January to November 2018, the global copper market had an excess supply of 54,000 tons, and in 2017, 120,200 tons.

Global copper stocks fell by 165,000 tons in November from December 2017, of which LME copper stocks decreased by 2,500 tons.

From January to November 2018, global copper production in mines was 18.94 million tons, an increase of 2.6% over the same period last year.

From January to November 2018, the global refined copper output was 21.15 million tons, an increase of 1.0% over the same period last year. Among them, copper production in Zambia and Chile increased by 9,700 tons and 4,500 tons respectively.

Global copper consumption in January-November was 21.45 million tons, higher than that in the same period of last year, which was 21.26 million tons.

China’s apparent copper consumption from January to November 2018 was 11.311 million tons, an increase of 6.5% over the same period last year.

Copper production in the 28 EU countries fell by 1.4% year on year, while copper demand increased by 0.2% to 3.08 million tons over the same period.

In November 2018, the global output of refined copper was 1.988 million tons, while the consumption was 1.974 million tons.

Aluminum:

From January to October 2018, the global supply shortage of raw aluminium was 561,600 tons. In 2017, there was a shortage of 1.21 million tons in the raw material market.

China’s demand for raw aluminium in January-November was 54.918 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons over the same period last year.

Primary aluminium production increased by 675,000 tons from January to November 2018.

No more producer inventory data will be released in the future. Total inventory will be reduced by 104,000 tons in November, which is 102,000 tons less than December 2017.

LME primary aluminium stocks increased significantly in November this year as Malaysian stocks increased, while stocks of other registered warehouses in Asia decreased.

By the end of November, LME’s inventory of aluminium was 2.244 million tons, compared with 2.346 million tons by the end of 2017.

By the end of November 2018, the total inventory of the four major exchanges, London, Shanghai, the United States and Tokyo, was 1.786 million tons, down 157 million tons from the end of December 2017.

Global primary aluminium production increased by 1.3% from January to November 2018. China’s primary aluminium production is estimated to be 314.48 million tons, accounting for 58% of the world’s total production.

China’s apparent demand for primary aluminium increased by 6.6% from January to November 2018.

From January to November 2018, China exported 341,000 tons of unwrought aluminium, higher than 335,000 tons in the same period last year.

China’s net exports of semi-finished aluminium products in the first 11 months of this year were 4.252 million tons, up from 3.486 million tons in the same period last year.

The output of raw aluminium in the 28 EU countries decreased by 0.2% compared with the same period last year, while that in the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) fell by 3.8%.

Demand for raw aluminium in the 28 EU countries increased by 147,000 tons compared with the same period in 2017.

Global demand for primary aluminium was almost flat from January to November 2018.

In November 2018, global primary aluminium production was 4989,000 tons, while consumption was 501,999,000 tons in the same period.

Lead:

From January to November 2018, there was a shortage of 203,000 tons in the global lead market and 386,000 tons in the whole year of 2017.

Total inventory at the end of November was 67,000 tons lower than at the end of 2017.

From January to November 2018, the global production of refined lead (primary lead and recycled lead) was 10.053 million tons, an increase of 2.5% over the same period in 2017.

From January to November, China’s apparent demand was 4.541 million tons, an increase of 168,000 tons over the same period last year, equivalent to more than 42% of global demand.

Apparent demand in the United States from January to November decreased by 23,000 tons compared with the same period in 2017.

In November 2018, global refined lead production was 1019,100 tons and consumption was 106,191,000 tons.

Zinc:

From January to November 2018, there was an oversupply of 65,100 tons in the global zinc market, and a shortage of 438,000 tons in 2017.

From January to November, we reported a decrease of 146,000 tons compared with the same period last year, and a net decrease of 338,000 tons in Shanghai.

LME zinc stocks increased earlier this year, but fell by 31.6 million tons in November to 112.6 million tons, compared with 181,000 tons at the end of last year. LME zinc stocks account for 22% of global zinc stocks, most of which are registered warehouses in the United States.

From January to November 2018, global refined zinc production decreased by 2.6% and consumption decreased by 6.1%. Over the same period, Japan’s apparent consumption was 483,800 tons, an increase of 9.8% from January to November 2017.

Global demand for refined zinc decreased by 795,000 tons from January to November 2017. China’s apparent demand is 5.576 million tons, accounting for 46% of global demand.

In November 2018, the global output of flat zinc ingots was 1.172 million tons, and the consumption was 124.75 million tons.

Nickel:

From January to November 2018, there was a shortage of 0.65 million tons in the global nickel market. In 2017, there was a shortage of 413,000 tons.

By the end of November 2018, LME could report a reduction of 154,000 tons in nickel stocks from the end of 2017.

From January to November 2018, the global production of refined nickel was 2.279 million tons, and the demand was 2.085 million tons.

The global nickel production from January to November 2018 was 2.169 million tons, an increase of 289 million tons over the same period in 2017.

The nickel output of China’s smelters/refineries increased by 136,000 tons compared with the same period in 2017, and the apparent demand increased by 127,000 tons compared with the same period in 2017.

Apparent global demand increased by 168,000 tons over the same period last year.

In November 2018, the global production of nickel in smelters/refineries was 214,400 tons and consumption was 215,500 tons.

Tin:

From January to November 2018, there was a shortage of 134,000 tons in the world tin market.

Reportable inventory increased by 1500 tons compared with the end of 2017.

Global refined tin production decreased by 2,900 tons from January to November 2018 compared with the same period in 2017. Among them, Asia’s output decreased by 1,900 tons compared with the same period last year. China’s apparent demand decreased by 9.3% over the same period last year.

In January-November 2018, global tin demand was 345,000 tons, down 1.7% from the same period last year. Japan’s consumption is 259,000 tons, 700 tons less than in January-October 2017.

In November 2018, the global output of refined tin was 304,000 tons and consumption was 32,500 tons.

According to the report of Japan Economic News on January 15, it is estimated that the U.S. crude oil production in 2018 leaped to the top in the world after 45 years. Driven by shale oil, U.S. crude oil production has more than doubled in 10 years, while dependence on imports has fallen to its lowest level in 30 years. The United States had previously relied on the Middle East in terms of crude oil supply, but as its production increased, its active participation in Middle East affairs might also decline. On the contrary, the “U.S. priority” foreign and security policies would be strengthened. The transformation of the United States into a net exporter of crude oil that exports more than imports is also imminent, and the world’s energy geopolitics may change.

Estimates from the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) and industry show that crude oil production in the United States averaged about 10.9 million barrels a day in 2018, an increase of about 20% over the previous year. The United States ranked third in 2017, but Saudi Arabia, which surpassed second in September 2018, and Russia, which ranked first, changed their power structure completely. Shale oil is still profitable below $50 a barrel because of the lower cost of technological innovation.

The structure of the U.S. dependence on foreign oil is changing as production increases. Net imports minus exports of crude oil account for less than 30% of U.S. domestic consumption in 2018, which is likely to reach the lowest level since 1988. This proportion hovered between 4 and 50% after the mid-1990s, when demand expanded significantly.

On the one hand, U.S. imports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) fell to about 50% of its recent peak (2008), the lowest level in 31 years. “The importance of the Middle East has declined and will no longer interfere in Middle East affairs at any cost,” said Takeshi Ueno, a senior economist at Japan’s Hiroshi Foundation Research Institute.

One of the reasons why the United States has long played the role of “world police” is to ensure a stable supply of energy. The fourth Middle East War in 1973, when the decline in domestic oil resources became evident, led to the oil crisis, which struck the world economy as prices rose rapidly.

To this end, in the Middle East, which is heavily dependent on crude oil, the United States led actions to maintain regional order, such as the 1991 Gulf War. But in December 2018, the United States announced its withdrawal from Syria, where the civil war is still ongoing. From the point of view of energy security, the active participation of the United States in Middle East affairs has significantly weakened.

On the other hand, the United States banned crude oil exports because of lessons learned from the oil crisis, but lifted the ban in 2015. After that, the export of crude oil expanded rapidly. By the last week of November 2018, its exports expanded to the fourth largest in the world after Saudi Arabia and Russia.

There are many opinions in the market that the sense of existence in the United States will be a factor to pull down the market. Lotte Securities commodity analyst Jeshi Yoshida said, “OPEC’s”magic power”of raising prices through production cuts will be weakened”.

The world crude oil market is hovering around $50 a barrel. If the United States maintains its output growth at a faster than expected rate, it will restrain the rise in oil prices (Takashi Noguchi, chief economist of Japan’s Petroleum, Natural Gas and Metal Mineral Resources Agency), which may shake the ruling foundations of Russia and the Middle East, which are financially dependent on crude oil revenues.

U.S. exports of crude oil and petroleum products exceeded imports once a week in November 2018, and net exports for the first time since 1991, which can be traced back to the same standards. Shale oil production fluctuates due to the financing environment, but Daniel Eugene, a well-known analyst, predicts that by the early 1920s, [the United States] will also become a net exporter throughout the year.

Trump’s political power struggles to gain new hegemony by taking the world’s energy supply as its source. U.S. crude oil import and export revenue and expenditure in 2017 was negative 110 billion U.S. dollars. It accounts for 14% of the overall trade deficit in goods. The United States is considering reducing the trade deficit by expanding energy exports. The United States has become a net exporter of natural gas in 2017. The United States has begun to move from a big energy consumer to a big exporter, or will bring about changes in the world political structure based on resources.

According to LME data, on January 14, 2019, the total stock of copper metal was 133,700 tonnes; the total stock of aluminum metal was 1,294,050 tonnes, an increase of 9,325 tonnes per day; and the total stock of aluminum alloy was 10,400 tonnes.