This week, the price of potassium chloride in neighbouring trade has fallen significantly, and other markets have also fallen steadily and quietly. The price of potassium sulfate has fallen slightly, but the market has not improved. Due to the restriction of logistics pressure, the price of potassium chloride pre-sale in border trade fell abnormally during the Spring Festival. At present, the price of 62% white potassium has fallen below 2200 yuan/ton. The price of potassium sulphate factory in Hebei area is lower than that of port supply. However, importers say that the pre-sale situation is still acceptable, and the pressure in the later period should not be very large. The price of port market has declined steadily and faintly, with 62% white potassium table. The mainstream of price quotation is still 2500-2550 yuan/ton, but the transaction price of large orders is basically lower than 2500 yuan/ton. It is rumored that the transaction price of some core customers is even lower. The price difference between 60% white potassium and 62% white potassium is larger than the 20 yuan/ton previously maintained for a long time, especially the local price of 62% Degabai has also fallen significantly to less than 2350 yuan/ton. To be Salt Lake Share, the company’s new price is being worked out in February. The rumored quotation remains unchanged, but some concessions may be offered to ensure holiday receipts. The return of 60% Dahong granular potassium Market ports is not obvious, the mainstream quotation is still around 2550 yuan/ton, and the preferential space is not very large, but the price of large granules squeezed by frontier trade and Northeast market has fallen in varying degrees, and overall is large. Granular potassium chloride is in a situation of no market, although it is short of goods. Some traders are worried about the future market. In addition, the international price of potash fertilizer has remained stable and has not increased significantly in the past three months. Generally speaking, the market stagnated during the Spring Festival, and the market psychological expectation was weak after the festival. The quantity of goods arrived was more than expected, and the cost space remained. It is expected that the price of potassium chloride will continue to decline.

Mannheim’s potassium sulfate start-up rate is low, but not particularly low. The pressure of the remaining stock of potassium sulfate is very big and difficult to ease. The overall market of potassium sulfate is not ideal. The price drop is not obvious for the time being, but the trend of weakness remains unchanged. With the continued decline of potassium chloride and the adjustment of each factory according to its own stock and by-product situation, it is expected that the high-end price of potassium sulfate will continue to fall, and the price gap between the high and low end of the market will gradually narrow. If demand is not strong after spring, the overall price of potassium sulfate will still have a greater downward possibility.

Liang Haihe, chief worker of China Meteorological Administration Meteorological Observation Center, said that global carbon dioxide concentration continued to rise in 2017.

At a press conference held by the China Meteorological Administration on the same day, he said that the China Meteorological Administration had recently issued the “China Greenhouse Gas Bulletin 2017 (No. 7)”, which corresponds to the “World Meteorological Organization 2017 WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin (No. 14)” issued by the United Nations on November 22, 2018.

Greenhouse gases mainly include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocarbons and so on.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued its annual communique in 2017, which said that the concentration of major greenhouse gases in the global atmosphere continued to break through the historical record since instruments were observed. The increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration in 2016-2017 was significantly lower than that in 2015-2016. Global atmospheric concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide reached new heights in 2017.

Liang Haihe said that in 1992, China Meteorological Administration first carried out background greenhouse gas concentration observation in China. At the end of 2016, China launched the first global carbon dioxide observation scientific experiment satellite (TanSat). At present, it has initially formed a three-dimensional observation capability of greenhouse gases, which integrates space, space and earth.

It is reported that at present, the China Meteorological Administration has seven ground-based greenhouse gas observation stations, namely, Wariguan in Qinghai, Shangdianzi in Beijing, Linan in Zhejiang, Longfeng Mountain in Heilongjiang, Jinsha in Hubei, Shangri-la in Yunnan and Akdara in Xinjiang. Wariguan Station in Qinghai Province is one of the 31 WMO/GAW atmospheric background stations in the world. In 2017, the concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide observed at Wariguan Station in Qinghai Province increased, which were higher than the global average in the same period, especially the methane concentration was significantly higher than the global average. In 2017, the greenhouse gas concentration of three regional background stations, Shangdianzi in Beijing, Linan in Zhejiang and Longfengshan in Heilongjiang, also increased.

On January 23, FOB Rotterdam was stable with prices ranging from $626 to $631 per ton.

On January 22, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 114.56, which was the same as yesterday. It was 18.42% lower than the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and 113.77% higher than the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has been lower recently. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 12625 yuan/ton as of the 23rd day, and the domestic start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid is about 60%. Enterprises reflect that the supply of hydrofluoric acid on the spot is sufficient at present, the situation of goods on the spot is getting worse recently. Some enterprises have increased their hydrofluoric acid stocks and slightly lowered their ex-factory prices, but due to the high expenditure of raw material market. The market price of hydrofluoric acid has fallen by a very limited margin. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 12,000-12,500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 12,000-13,000 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market price trend is slightly lower, spot supply is sufficient, due to the recent high prices of raw materials market, fluorite prices are in a high state, but the price of raw materials fluorite slightly declined, the market price of hydrofluoric acid slightly lower.

Recent downstream refrigerant product maintenance devices are more, the demand for upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid has weakened, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market has declined, and the price of hydrofluoric acid products has slightly decreased. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 70%, R22 refrigerant facility start-up rate declines, the main production enterprise bulk water out-of-factory offer price drops to 17500-18500 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot, mainly with a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has declined, and the shipment market trend is poor. The domestic market price of R134a is slightly lower, the start-up rate of production enterprises is lower, the market demand for refrigerants is weakened, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much, and the merchants purchase on demand. Recently, due to the impact of equipment maintenance, the upstream market demand for hydrofluoric acid has weakened.

Refrigerant on-site transaction prices slightly lower, refrigerant industry equipment overhaul increased, the upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand weakened, coupled with the upstream refrigerant industry to resist high prices of raw materials, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may continue to decline, hydrofluoric acid prices will be around 12,500 yuan/ton.

Price Trend
According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of January 22, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2218 yuan/ton. Overall, the domestic methanol market was mainly consolidated, and the price fell 33.70% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic methanol market operates differently. Driven by crude oil, macro and other peripheral information, the overall performance of the port is slightly better than that of the mainland market; the two major mainstream ports moved up 50-75 yuan/ton, while many mainland markets maintained the expected downward trend, falling by 30-70 yuan/ton. As far as the external driving factors are concerned, we need to continue to pay attention to the transmission of energy and chemicals caused by the explosion and fire of the Gulf of Mexico oil pipeline; and return to the basic level, with the influence of the Spring Festival atmosphere becoming stronger, local capacity gradually tightening, terminal demand slowing down and so on. In the short term, based on depot drainage drive, the probability of continuing shocks in the Mainland is obvious. In addition, Wen Wenzhejiang olefin enterprise ethylene glycol project plan to restart, pay attention to MTO start-up action. Domestic freight for methanol has been partially lowered in recent days. In some areas, freight has been lowered by 20-60 yuan/ton. It is known that the number of vehicles continues to decrease.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: raw material finishing is the main, formaldehyde in Shandong Province has been light in recent days, the market has not changed much, part of the construction began to decline. At present, Linyi is around 1080-1100 yuan/ton, Zibo and its surrounding areas are around 1200-1300 yuan/ton. Acetic acid: The domestic glacial acetic acid market is stable. Traders are cautious and wait-and-see. With the approaching of Spring Festival holidays, logistics holidays one after another, the market atmosphere gradually weakened. However, considering the decline in inventory, enterprises have a higher intention to push up their offer, and some enterprises plan to raise 50 yuan/ton. Dimethyl ether: End users’enthusiasm for entering the market continues to weaken, sellers’ sales are under pressure, dimethyl ether market prices are wide short, short-term sellers will continue to dominate the volume of warehouse drainage, and many continue to short expectations.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, olefins: At present, methanol prices are at a low level, and the economic recovery of olefins is still acceptable, focusing on domestic MTO stoppage and restart operations; crude oil: the crude oil market has risen, affecting the methanol futures market, providing some favorable support; futures: the futures market has risen substantially, which has a certain support for port methanol; macro-level: the State Council pushes for universal benefits. Sexual tax cuts reduce the burden of small and micro enterprises. On the negative side, raw materials: coal prices are relatively stable, but natural gas has not performed well in the near future, the upstream supply is sufficient, prices continue to fall, and cost support is insufficient; start-up: more than 70% of domestic methanol local start-up, the main areas start relatively stable, supply is sufficient; port: recent port arrival concentration, inventory accumulation is obvious; demand side: near the Spring Festival, the current downstream. Reserves are approaching the end one after another, and the intention of some upstream factories to drain warehouses is still obvious. Some of them continue to reduce prices to drain warehouses, affecting the surrounding markets. Methanol analysts at business associations predict that short-term domestic methanol market or narrow-band consolidation will dominate.