International crude oil: The market is worried that the Sino-US trade war will escalate and the major oil-producing countries will increase production, and the international oil price will fall. However, the traditional US demand peak season and low stocks bring positive effects and restrain the decline. On Friday (August 3), WTI’s September 18 futures fell $0.47 per barrel at 68.49; Brent’s October 18 futures fell $0.24 per barrel at 73.21. China’s SC crude oil in September 18 futures rose by 6.7 yuan per barrel 507.7.

Pure benzene outer disk: FOB Korea rose 6.33 to 876 US dollars / ton, CFR China rose 9 to 883 US dollars / ton, FOB Southeast Asia rose 7 to 860 US dollars / ton, FOB Rotterdam rose 2 to 875.5 US dollars / ton, CIF ARA rose 2 to 872 USD/ton, FOB USG is stable at 296 cents/gal.

Pure benzene market: Although the crude oil fell, the external disk price rose, giving the pure benzene market a good support. It is expected that the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar will remain at current levels, and the subsequent import costs will be higher, which will help the domestic stocks continue to be digested. At present, the operating rate of Shandong refining is low, there is no pressure on shipment, there is no low-level supply, and the supporters are strong. It is expected that the price of pure benzene will remain strong at the high level today.

Brazilian resin supplier Brasco introduced an ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA plastic) copolymer extracted from sugar cane. The first application of this material was in a biomass plastic flip-flop product developed by Allbirds in San Francisco, called the Sugar Zeffer. The environmentally-friendly footwear company recently attracted the investment of Leonardo DiCaprio and Golden State Warriors basketball star Andre Iguodala.

The flip-flops based on bio-plastic materials use EVA foam extracted from sugar cane and other materials extracted and recycled from nature.

Allbirds refers to the carbon-free foamed EVA as SweetFoam. This flip-flop also features a replaceable strap made from recycled PET bottles, bio suede and castor oil-based thermoplastic polyurethane.

On August 2, 2018, there were 2 kinds of commodities that rose in the price list of the fluorine chemical industry. There were 2 kinds of commodities falling, and 1 product was changed to 0. The main commodities that have risen are: chloroform (0.63%) and aluminum fluoride (dry method) (0.41%); the main commodities falling are: cryolite (-0.43%) and fluorite (-0.19%).

On the 2nd, the market trend of fluorine chemical raw materials declined slightly. The price of raw fluorite was 2675 yuan/ton, the mainstream of fluorite market in northern China was 2600-2700 yuan/ton, and the price of southern fluorite market was 2600-2800 yuan/ton. The fluorite installation of the parking was not broken, the phoenix installation started to rise, the spot supply was relieved, and the fluorite price declined slightly, but the decline was limited. In addition, the recent downstream refrigerant industry has a price reduction demand, the price of hydrofluoric acid market has declined. As of the 2nd, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is 11033.33 yuan/ton. The market of hydrofluoric acid market has a downward trend. It is expected that the fluorine chemical industry will be slightly later. Go lower.

Boosted by the rebound in demand, the plastics market has rebounded recently. In the later period, plastic prices may oscillate in view of increased supply and falling costs.

Since July, the demand for shed film has increased, and the enthusiasm of low-end replenishment of traders and downstream enterprises has increased, and PE prices have risen. Technically, plastic prices are still in the downtrend channel, and whether the 1901 contract can stand at 9,560 yuan / ton is doubtful.

Demand is gradually picking up

In June, demand was not good and plastic prices continued to decline. However, after hitting a new low in the past year, the enthusiasm of the downstream companies for replenishment has rebounded, and the gradual improvement in the demand for shed film has further strengthened this replenishment behavior. At present, the downstream packaging film operating rate is stable; the shed film operating load is 23%, although it is low, but it continues to rise. Therefore, with the arrival of the greenhouse film consumption season, the demand for plastics is gradually increasing.

Demand is picking up, PE supply is tight, and stocks are falling. As of July 26, Huadong Petrochemical’s PE inventory was 50,265 tons, down 9535 tons from the high point in early July, a decrease of 15.94%; the inventory of Huadong warehouse was 126,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from the high point in early July. The decline was 13.70%; the social inventory was 217,965 tons, a decrease of 35,485 tons from the high point in early July, a decrease of 14%. Due to the low inventory, the willingness to replenish the market is further enhanced, thus stimulating the rise in methanol prices.

The maintenance device is restarted one after another.

In the early stage, the price of plastics was low, and the efficiency of enterprises was not good. In addition, consumption was in the off-season. Many PE manufacturers chose equipment maintenance at the end of June and early July, and the production capacity reached 6.26 million tons/year. However, after the consumption rebounded and the price rose, the maintenance device resumed production in a large area, and some of the remaining devices will resume production in early August. In August, only Daqing Petrochemical’s 760,000 tons/year plant was scheduled to be discontinued.

It should be noted that the recent depreciation of the Renminbi, the cost of imported ethylene and plastic products will rise, and the import volume may decline in the later period. In addition, China’s tariffs on the United States are counter-productive, ethylene and plastic products are among them, while domestic imports of ethylene and plastics from the United States account for a large proportion, which may affect imports, and the latter market will have domestic output. The degree of dependence will increase.

Crude oil and coal are easy to fall

In August, the consumption of refined oil products is coming to an end, and the support for demand for crude oil prices has weakened. In addition, the number of active drilling in the United States continues to increase, production continues to be high, and US crude oil prices are weak. In the Middle East, although sanctions against Iran have affected the country’s exports, other OPEC member states are working hard to increase production, and the crude oil operation has a high probability of moving down.

In terms of coal, the peak of summer electricity consumption is coming to an end, and the inventory of coal-fired power companies has begun to accumulate, and coal prices have fallen sharply.

Crude oil and coal are easy to fall and hard to rise, and PE costs are bound to fall.

Market outlook

In summary, the peak season of greenhouse film consumption is approaching, coupled with the buying up and not buying down the psychology to promote downstream goods, plastic demand is picking up. However, the early maintenance devices have resumed production, and the increase in supply will alleviate the current tight supply problem. At the same time, the prices of upstream crude oil and coal have weakened, and the support for the plastics market has weakened. Based on the above judgments, the price of plastics does not have a basis for a sharp rise, and the recent market should treat prices with a short-term rebound.

The Malaysian government said that the bauxite ban imposed since 2016 will continue to be delayed until the end of the year due to the accumulation of bauxite deposits.

Malaysia was previously the largest importer of bauxite in China, but unregulated mining caused severe damage to the bauxite mining site in eastern Pahang, causing the government to ban bauxite mining operations in early 2016.

At the end of 2015, neighboring country Indonesia banned the export of bauxite. Malaysia quickly filled the gap and once became the largest bauxite supplier in China with a monthly export volume of 3.5 million tons.

Former Minister of Natural Resources and Environment Wan Junaidi Tuanku Jaafar had estimated that 10 million tons of bauxite reserves would still be processed until March.