In addition, the first half of this year, in addition to Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, the three largest rubber producing countries are at a stop cutting period, and producers in Indonesia has already formed the raw material cost is higher than the cost of the finished product sales will not hoard goods selling practice, not only can’t expect Indonesia glue to replace Thailand and Malaysia rubber, this wave of global production in the low period under the condition of the first half of 2017, the market supply will inevitably cause the shortage.

The situation is worse, the main component of rubber to natural rubber and synthetic rubber, rubber and tire as the main consumption areas, occupy the whole rubber consumer market 70% high proportion, and is mainly based on natural rubber as raw material, the tapping days plummeted, plus trees long submerged in water, may cause fine root tip, with necrosis or speed up the leaves and other phenomena, various factors are fully display the downstream tire factory for raw materials demand will gradually tight, the second season tire industry will face renewed fear because of the risk of rising raw materials, for the transfer of consumers and increase the price again.

Our country from Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia imports of natural rubber in the proportion of 75%, due to the small and medium-sized enterprises in market size, product competitiveness is insufficient and therefore can only attack the Dachang, low-cost market, but now the import of raw materials is high, already at the end of last year, will not be able to bear the price pressure, can not be passed on to consumers under the pressure, there is almost no the living space, so many small and medium China tire factory operating rate or production is facing the dilemma, however, it may also the government wants, is expected to trend toward integration, the bigger the fight against foreign enterprises.

It is foreseeable that in the tight supply of natural rubber, homeopathy also pushed up the upstream raw material butadiene ferocious rally, and butadiene rubber (BR) and styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) also continued to rise, so the synthetic rubber factory, it must follow the upstream price quotation to the downstream tire factory, this price trend is established next, whether domestic enterprises, foreign enterprises or domestic firms have been unable to load, have to rise to relieve the pressure of cost increases.

floods in Thailand in recent months, the subsequent impact is still spreading. The first half of this year, the increasingly tight supply of natural rubber, pushing up the tire manufacturing raw material – butadiene (BD) price skyrocketing close $3000 per metric ton mark, turns off the global tire manufacturers prices surge, whether foreign or domestic firms have been unable to load. The industry more rumors, foreign investment in the second quarter of this year will again raise price.

Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia as the three major natural rubber producing countries, in October last year when chanting to reduce exports, then the market rumors drop point in time is wrong, because in November, December and January is to produce more of the season, but the yield and export restrictions facing dilemma, although the market price rises, for the self-employed farmers concerned but will not stand, resulting in prices again back again, but in Thailand since last December has occurred in the first flood, then in January of this year is due to heavy rains floods, due to two consecutive floods are in the south of Thailand rubber producing areas, thus quickly push up the natural rubber price.

Natural rubber synthetic rubber tire mad angry outburst

According to the Thailand rubber Bureau data show that torrential rains and floods have hit southern Thailand since December 5th last year, there are about 6.5% of the rubber plantation was destroyed. In addition, the southern Thailand daily output of 10 thousand tons of calculation tapping in December last year to January this year, the cumulative loss of output has nearly 200 thousand tons.

Now, the proportion of consumption of crude oil, reduce the game under the bright prospects of copper consumption, Dr copper can shake the leading position of crude oil? Investment, after copper abandoned oil is desirable?

Replace the oil position? Not so simple

The decline in crude oil consumption appears, the current world economic situation, whether the actual demand will decline? While the demand for copper promotion space and how many?

In July 14th this year, Chinese Petroleum Economic and Technology Research Institute released a report, “2050 world energy outlook and Chinese” (hereinafter referred to as the “Outlook”), again for oil consumption mouthing. “Outlook” pointed out that global oil consumption will reach the peak in 2030 ~2040 years, then began to decline.

The report believes that the main purpose of the current oil is used as fuel for transportation. Oil consumption cap was mainly due to the refined oil (especially diesel) influence consumption reduced. The reason is that the fuel utilization rate can be improved and the development of alternative energy sources. In the industrialization of mature countries, oil consumption growth is very difficult to have a big breakthrough.

Oil consumption growth is mainly in developing countries. The economic development and population growth is the main driving force of growth of energy consumption. GDP growth in India will become a major country in the fastest-growing country population will exceed China in 2030. Although the China aging trend is obvious, but the service industry and the development of urbanization is faster than the global average, so the increase of energy consumption still has potential. Under this background, considering the possible future economic and technological breakthroughs and many other uncertain factors, “Outlook” the 4 prediction — policy scenario, extensive scenario, low-carbon scenario, strong constraint scenarios. But no matter what kind of situation, “consumption outlook” predicted oil will decline in the next 35 years.

In spite of this, but Huang Xiaojun believes that whether short-term or long-term, just because the consumption of crude oil will abandon bearish investment reasons Poxian thin. International oil production regional monopoly, due to the impact of oil price changes on the supply side of the price can not be ignored, do not rule out the consumption decline while prices rose. On the leading role of the commodity, the price is still an important indicator of inflation, will also continue to maintain its leading position in a long period of time.

According to the analysis, this means that the power consumption of the world oil China will gradually reduce the consumption in the end that the petrochemical energy consumption ratio, including oil and coal. “Planning”, “13th Five-Year” period also adhere to conservation priority policy, efforts to promote the related fields of oil consumption reduction alternatives, focus on improving the automobile fuel economy standards, vigorously promote new energy vehicles, and vigorously promote the port and airport transportation using electricity instead of oil “,” gas instead of oil”. Representative is the development of new energy vehicles, the trend of the one hand means that the power consumption of the blowout (charging infrastructure construction), on the other hand that oil fuel lost a big consumer “position”.

In addition, in the “non fossil energy development plan” advocated by the solar and wind energy, hydropower, nuclear power development was included in the list, the planning of solar power by 2020 to reach more than 110 million kilowatts scale. Analysts said the new energy into electricity in the process almost to cannot do without a raw materials such as copper, every 100 megawatts of wind energy conversion power output to use 3.6 tons of copper.

Not only have the whole world in view, Chinese, irreversible energy revolution trend. Since the 2014 collapse of oil prices, global oil prices continued to slump, although the 2016 back to $50 / barrel, but its high of $120 / barrel glory has not mentioned in the same breath. The United States shale oil operation efficiency and technology level rising, the production cost decreased gradually. This is the heart of heavy oil bulls.

Analysts believe that for a long time, after the two oil crisis, crude oil is affected by demand side become more and more obvious, the macroeconomic thermometer, and a copper with the economic cycle fluctuations, the correlation between the two in recent years continue to strengthen.

A brokerage for senior macroeconomic researcher Huang Xiaojun (a pseudonym) explained that the history of the relationship between the price of oil and copper have experienced two stages. The first stage is the last century in 70s, the first time after the outbreak of the oil crisis, large-scale oil market supply reduction, soaring oil prices, inflation, prices to rise. The second stage is the last century in 80s to the beginning of this century, supply factors (the Gulf War) influence oil prices lead to changes in the price of copper, with the rise is not obvious, and the demand factor prices become dominant, dominant and synchronous copper. Overall, the first phase of copper and oil prices is more direct relationship between lead and follow, and the second stage is also the correlation produced by economic factors. “Since then, the oil market supply side calmed down, change of copper and oil prices changes mainly depends on the demand rather than the supply side, while globalization has led to various regions of the world economic cycle trend is consistent, so this period of copper and oil prices change almost fit world economic ups and downs, and a strong consistency.”

China Securities newspaper reporter contrast after 2004 Brent crude oil and LME copper historical trend found that before 2011, the two movements are very high similarity. But after 2011, oil prices relatively resilient while copper prices decline is relatively smooth, and since 2011 the Middle East geo political events continue on. In 2016, two have to force, but the price is relatively weak in many.

Avariety of commodities in the arena’s position depends largely on its real economy in the world in the role and influence.

Right now, the old goods between the “leading” oil and metal “lead the eldest brother” Dr copper running is quietly kicked off. In the path of energy revolution, the original stable commodity structure will probably start to shake, Dr. copper can overcome the entrenched not resigned to playing second fiddle “leading” status for crude oil, worthy of attention.

The new energy power back into the oil press”

The new energy vehicles as the representative of the new life of the tools and methods, from the demand side is leveraging commodity pattern.

Many experts predict that the new energy vehicles and renewable energy development in the field of copper consumption, is open blue ocean.

The day before, the NDRC Energy Bureau and the state issued “energy development” 13th Five-Year “plan” (hereinafter referred to as the “plan”). “Planning” proposed, “13th Five-Year” period, the proportion of non fossil energy consumption increased to more than 15%, the proportion of natural gas consumption and strive to reach 10%, the proportion of coal consumption is reduced to below 58%.