In 2017 China economic trend analysis, there are many uncertainties facing 2017 Chinese economic environment, but is still expected to maintain a steady trend, and not a hard landing”.

Xu Shaoshi pointed out that the face of economic development in 2017 the internal and external environment remains complex and grave. Overall, the slow recovery of the world economy, but the uncertain and unstable factors increased significantly. Although the domestic economy is slow in stabilization, steady for the better, but still facing some prominent contradictions and problems.

“However, Chinese have the confidence, conditions and ability to ensure economic operation in a reasonable range.” Xu Shaoshi said, “Chinese said outside economic collapse”, “hard landing” inevitable decline, these predictions and anticipation will fail.

“China economic potential growth capacity is still very large, it is important to enhance the quality of growth.” Bank of Communications (601328, shares) chief economist Lian Ping said that if the 2017 external environment to improve the smooth operation of the real estate market, private investment rebound is expected in 2017 Chinese economic growth rate will be higher than 6.5%.

Cao Heping believes that the first half of 2017, the economy is likely to Chinese steady since the four quarter trend continues. This year, Chinese need to further promote the supply side structural reforms should focus on prevention of financial risks, at the same time, through tax cuts and other measures to reduce the negative boost the real economy, continue to enhance the stability of economic operation.

At present, some international organizations also said that the future economic Chinese bullish trend. The United Nations recently issued the “2017 world economic situation and prospects”, Chinese economic steady growth in 2016, easing the parties in the short term to its growth will slow sharply worries. In the promotion of robust domestic demand and supportive fiscal measures, China economic growth is expected to 6.5%. in 2017 and 2018 each year

reprint please indicate the source of the original] review: “2013-2017 China ammonia industry research and investment prospect evaluation report” is mainly used for the production of ammonia nitrate, urea and other chemical fertilizer, but also can be used as raw material of medicine and pesticide. In the defense industry, used in the manufacture of rocket and missile propellant. Can be used as organic chemical products of raw materials into ammonia ammonification, because ammonia gas in the gasification, can absorb a lot of heat, known as the “refrigerant” at the same time, ammonia has certain bactericidal effect, so in the poultry industry, is used for sterilization and cooling refrigeration.

The Spring Festival approaching, a review of recent ammonia market price trends, market zhangdiehuxian situation can never break. Nearly half the time, Shandong, Jiangsu and Anhui, two rivers and the Hubei market is also mixed.

The prospect of 2016-2021 Chinese ammonia industry market supply and demand forecast depth research report:

The recent market to reduce the amount of ammonia is largely affected by environmental pressures, Shandong, Anhui and Henan were significantly reduced, the market also has a significant boost for Hubei local temporary parking device and to reduce the amount of ammonia on mainstream manufacturers, the market supply is obviously reduced, supporting the local and surrounding markets.

It is reported that years ago, methanol market rose underpowered, although the port may have to rise, but because of weak demand, the mainland increases the probability is small, so the liquid ammonia, methanol plant construction does not appear obvious change. Although years ago fertilizer manufacturers are willing to purchase, but in view of the high price of urea, purchase mentality more cautious, and does not exclude manufacturers price may be single suction.

The upper anthracite market recently stabilized, and the chemical fertilizer procurement initiative is acceptable, coal prices coal sales have remained balanced state. At the same time, the coal price strong influence, coal price downside limited. While the market years ago with anthracite very price oriented, cost no significant fluctuations.

It is reported that in January 16th Hebei Kaiyue chemical Limited by Share Ltd top ammonia prices rose 30 yuan, the price rose to 2580 yuan / ton, the normal operation of equipment. Shandong Shuntian Chemical Group Co. Ltd. excellent ammonia factory price of 2700 yuan / ton, the normal operation of equipment. Jiangsu Huachang Chemical Limited by Share Ltd top ammonia rose 50 yuan, the price rose to 2900 yuan / ton, the normal operation of equipment.

January 17th Anhui Huaihua Limited by Share Ltd top ammonia factory price of 3200 yuan / ton, the normal operation of equipment. Jiangsu Huachang Chemical Limited by Share Ltd top ammonia factory price in the cash price of 2900 yuan / ton, the normal operation of equipment. Shandong Shuntian Chemical Group Co. Ltd. excellent ammonia factory price of 2700 yuan / ton, the normal operation of equipment.

Now, with the resumption of production and stop the Spring Festival approaching, the overall market of liquid ammonia downward trajectory of greater probability, north of the local market demand by the downstream weak and weak pinning down. As the Spring Festival approaching, the enterprise stock plus logistics holiday, is expected to remain relatively stable or liquid ammonia.

at present, Guoen upstream products of domestic ammonia producing areas of market supply is tight, companies continue to push up the price, the downstream rigid demand is stable, no pressure ammonia shipments, enterprise strong willingness very price.

The domestic market price of 85% formic acid in 4322.22 yuan / ton, the price unchanged from yesterday. Today, the domestic 85% formic acid overall market prices remain stable and experienced early surge after the formic acid market began to steady trend, the majority of enterprises prices remain high and stable, no significant price adjustment. It is understood that the domestic price of 85% formic acid generally maintained at 5000 yuan / ton. Device, Luxi Chemical acid device in normal operation, as Shandong have yet to reopen the market supply compared to before easing slightly. At present, Shanghai Lawton Fine Chemical Co., the price of 5300 yuan / ton; Zibo Pulis Chemical Co., offer 5000 yuan / ton; Jinzhou gold HTC Chemical Co., offer 5000 yuan / ton.

At present, the downstream leather, chemicals and other industries are indifferent to acid demand, is expected to domestic 85% formic acid Market in the short term to stabilize.

The fourth quarter of 2016, emerging markets how miserable? In November December, the U.S. presidential election pummeled the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, emerging markets suffered a strong capital outflow. According to the capital flows monitoring agency EPFR data show that all emerging market equity funds in the fourth quarter of last year suffered a $7 billion 945 million fund redemption. In terms of debt, Societe Generale Bank report shows that emerging markets in addition to Chinese outside the capital outflow of $25 billion in fourth quarter of last year.

From the historical data, the fourth quarter of 2016, when earnings in developed market can provide are generally low, many investors in emerging markets to chase yield, so the emerging market has attracted a lot of capital inflows, but the situation was reversed in the fourth quarter. According to the Institute of International Finance (hereinafter referred to as IIF) report released in January 3rd showed that poor performance in the fourth quarter, the annual investment in 2016 emerging market securities to attract foreign investment of only $28 billion, the weakest since 2008 for a year, less than the 2010-2014 average of 10%. from asset classes, 2016, emerging market stocks the performance is better than that of bonds, stocks and bonds net inflows of $61 billion 400 million, a net outflow of $33 billion 800 million.

The IIF report analysis pointed out that the reason why emerging market capital outflows intensified at the end of last year, including the U.S. presidential election, then bring inflation expectations and the Fed’s more hawkish stance. In addition, the market for the RMB exchange rate uncertainty is heating up again, also worried about Trump or the government will have a negative impact on global trade. The above factors, the emerging market in the fourth quarter of 2016 once again under pressure.

Correlation of emerging market trends and decrease the Fed rate hike

There are signs in the fourth quarter of 2016, emerging market’s poor performance, the recent signs of improvement. The size of the global market in the largest two emerging market fund, BlackRock’s iShares MSCI emerging markets ETF (Code: EEM) and the FTSE emerging markets (ETF Code: VWO), in December 19, 2016 by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates after the market hit, recently began to improve, the two funds since December 19th, both rose over 5%.

SG: stabilization of outflow of funds in emerging markets

Societe Generale Asia head of currency strategy Jason Daw in January 9th, the report pointed out that emerging markets in 2016 October (mainly bonds) and November (mainly in bonds and equities) experienced a massive outflow of foreign capital, the current data show that the outflow of funds began to stabilize in December and January.