“in accordance with the traditional idea of the dollar and strong will generate pressure on emerging markets. But as we experienced in 2016, the traditional ideas may be wrong, if expected according to the traditional ideas, Trump was elected, the British won’t happen back in europe.

Over the past five years, emerging markets are a net outflow of capital, the market could fully reflect the expected. 2016 benefited from rising oil prices, emerging markets are good. I think the next emerging market will be short-term pressure, long-term, optimistic outlook.

From the perspective of long-term investors, because the fixed income outlook is not good, is expected to transfer will be long-term allocation of funds from fixed income to emerging markets.” UBS Global Asset Management Analyst in emerging markets and Asia Pacific Equity Fund Manager and Shi Bin in answer to a reporter’s question, said the twenty-first Century economic report.

“Although the Beijing haze rule every year in progress, but there is a certain distance

with the expectation of the public, Beijing in 2017 to achieve the” air pollution

prevention action plan “to determine the target great challenge.” The former vice

president of the Central Academy of China hair analysis for the twenty-first Century

economic report.

The afternoon of January 7th, Beijing mayor Cai Qi said that 2017 is the implementation

of national air ten last year of Beijing in greater scope to take measures, will take ten

key measures, iron fisted rule haze. Chen Jining said, environmental protection In 2017

the Ministry will release “13th Five-Year” air pollution prevention and control planning,

city air quality compliance deadline management and Deployment Guide, promote the

prevention and control of ozone pollution.

Chen Jining revealed in terms of water pollution, and in 2017 to implement the “ten

water” as the main line, the establishment of water pollution prevention and early

warning mechanism of comprehensive supervision, supervise the implementation of local

government responsibility, establish ecological environment protection planning and

implementation of key river basin water pollution prevention plan “13th Five-Year” and

the Yangtze River economic belt, pilot monitoring and evaluation of Yangtze River water

environment the economic belt carrying capacity. At the same time, environmental

protection The Department will also live Construction Department inspection City smelly

water remediation work before the end of 2017, the basic elimination of black odor water

district municipalities, municipalities, provincial capital city, investigation and

assessment of water environment in drinking water.

In November 2016, the domestic fertilizer market is generally stable, the main varieties of fertilizer on the whole price rose slightly. But the decrease in the urea market rising costs and output prices, a strong rebound. Market monitoring shows that the domestic urea market price reached 1400 yuan (ton price, the same below) for the year, the chain rose by 15.7%, representing a decrease of 5.4%; DAP price 2660 yuan, up 0.4%, representing a decrease of 3.6%; the average price of ammonium phosphate is 2050 yuan, down 0.5%, compared with 2.8% decline; domestic chloride k the average price of 1900 yuan, a record low, down 2.6%, representing a decrease of 17.4%; 45% of sulfur based compound fertilizer price 2130 yuan, a 1.4% year-on-year decline in the rebound, 6.6%.

According to customs data, in November the average export price (FOB price per ton of urea, the same below) of $205.7, a rise of 1.2%, the first time this year rose 23.8% year-on-year decline; TSP average export price of 248.6 U.S. dollars, a rebound in 1%, representing a decrease of 26.8%; DAP average export price of 320 dollars, down 0.9%, representing a decrease of 29.1%; three composite fertilizer export average price of $487.5, up 2.5% year-on-year decline of 20.9%.

At present, the domestic market supply and demand imbalance is still serious, export volatility, market competition, the overall price is still in the low volatility. Is expected in the short term fertilizer market overall downturn trend is difficult to have a big improvement, weak market will also continue. However, in the winter and raw material prices under the support, the domestic fertilizer market price in the short term will continue upward trend.

At the end of 2016, has just released the November economic operation of petroleum and chemical industry report shows that the first 11 months of the year in the fertilizer industry total output, exports, industry profits, apparent consumption growth has a different degree of decline, at present, the domestic market supply and demand imbalance is still serious, the overall downturn trend difficult to be improved.

The report shows that: in November 2016, the national output of chemical fertilizer (pure, the same below) 5 million 939 thousand tons, down 10.2%, a decline of 4.9 percentage points last month to expand. Among them, the urea production of 2 million 316 thousand tons, down 25.2%; phosphate fertilizer production 1 million 682 thousand tons, an increase of 4.5%; fertilizer production 714 thousand tons, an increase of 10.2%. in petroleum and chemical industry exports once again clear growth situation, in November exports of 2 million 332 thousand tons of chemical fertilizer (physical volume, the same below), a year-on-year decline of 30.3%; exports amounted to $560 million, the cumulative decline of 44.5%. the export of 24 million 936 thousand tons, down 20.6%; exports of $5 billion 980 million, a decline of 38.9%. at the same time, fertilizer consumption growth continued to fall.

From 1 to November, the apparent consumption of chemical fertilizer (pure, the same below) 60 million 766 thousand tons, an increase of 0.1%, the growth rate to new lows for the year. In November 2016, fertilizer manufacturing industry profits fell 50.7%, narrowed slightly than before October. Among them, nitrogen fertilizer made a net loss of 9 billion 380 million yuan, the amount of loss is still increasing.

The chemical industry this month significantly outperformed the broader market, agricultural supply side reform topics related to agricultural industry over prices strong performance of the plate, sub sectors with urea, phosphate fertilizer, pesticide as the representative to maintain good benefit, at the same time, all kinds of cycle industry with viscose, titanium dioxide was represented by maintaining a strong.

The first quarter of next year and the first half of the chemical sector should still focus on all kinds of periodic chemical sub sectors to improve supply and demand led boom upgrade brings investment opportunities, part of continuous fermentation recently proposed to pay more attention to the environmental protection events and needs significant recovery brought about by sub sector investment opportunities, including: all kinds of agricultural products, viscose staple fiber, silicone PVC, sodium carbonate and titanium dioxide, industrial chain and other sub sectors.

Golden State team recently based chemical view summary

December chemical products price rose to a certain extent exceeded the expectations of the market, from the level of supply and demand changes, such as short-term cost push, capacity constraints and other major cause of rising prices. In 2017 January to sub industry concern prices continued to rise and has a certain ability to deliver performance and related standard, focus on agricultural sector, viscose staple fiber, titanium dioxide and other investment opportunities in the industry, for part of the price rose too fast and the lack of fundamental support for the sub sector is to maintain a cautious attitude.

Recommendations concern the agricultural sector:

Pesticide industry:

At present, the mainstream price hike to glyphosate between 2.6-2.7 million, the product and raw material prices remain high glycine consolidation, it is recommended to focus on success group, and proposes a focus on Xin’an shares, the country shares; the recent price hike of glufosinate to around 170 thousand, short-term supply tensions have not eased, the proposals concern Lier Chemical; imidacloprid, acetamiprid continued tight supply, by the environmental impact of technical and important intermediate CCMP prices remain high, the proposals concern evergreen shares.

P:

The domestic fertilizer “6+2″ after a meeting of DAP prices remain strong, the industry is expected to bring short-term profitability is expected to improve under the trend of investment opportunities, the proposals concern the sky. All over the country: urea urea prices continued to rise since December, winter spring season needs improvement and superposition caused by short-term tension capacity mismatch, the industry boom is expected to continue to improve, the proposals concern Hubei Yihua, Luxi Chemical, Huaneng Power, Yang coal chemical industry etc..

Firmly optimistic about viscose staple fiber:

2017 Viscose staple fiber industry The boom continued to improve, the industry gradually clear, in recent years the production of steady demand growth under the background of environmental protection under the background of superimposed supply continued to tighten, the industry is expected to relay a strong market in 2016. The background of recent off-season price increase is also in this industry solid fundamentals, industry supply and demand have achieved a certain degree of marginal improvement. Recommendations concern related to listed companies, Sanyou chemical Aoyang technology, chemical and Thailand, Nanjing chemical fiber.

The main chemical products this month price and price changes in December N chemical price performance is better, the majority of product prices rose this month or the top five products were reduced (40%), fuel oil (39.35%), butadiene (35.66%), nylon POY (28.93%), MEG (27.18%); the decline in the top five are liquid chlorine (-40.00%), PVC (-17.43%), cotton (-11.43%), dichloromethane (-9.26%), TDI (-8.10%).

Spread performance chemicals:

This month, diammonium phosphate, ethylene ethylene glycol spread huge expansion, polyester staple fiber, soda ash, MDI, PTA spread to some extent expand. Viscose staple fiber, TDI spread to some extent reduced, while the coal head of urea and calcium carbide method PVC spreads shrink serious.

The price oversold chemicals summary:

102 kinds of key chemical product prices this month in gold tracking, there are 9 kinds of chemicals, the price is still in the bottom of the range (less than or equal to the lowest in history this month the average price of *10% operation). In the bottom row to run the first five months of the longest for varieties of butyl rubber (17 months), ammonium nitrate (industrial) (15 months), acrylic staple (14 months), acrylic top (14 months), potassium sulfate (November).