After the holiday, the price of plasticizer DOP has stopped falling and stabilized
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 13th, the DOP price was 7309.16 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.79% compared to the DOP price of 7367.50 yuan/ton on October 1st. After the holiday, the price of DOP slightly decreased and then stabilized. The operating load of DOP enterprises was weakly consolidated, the operating rate slightly decreased, and the supply of DOP decreased; The raw material isooctanol has stopped falling and rebounded, the price of phthalic anhydride has weakened and fallen, the cost of DOP has stabilized strongly, and the downward pressure on DOP has weakened; Downstream demand is unlikely to improve, with mediocre intentions for DOP procurement inquiries and weak DOP demand transactions. The cost support for both supply and demand is weak, and the price of plasticizers has stopped falling and stabilized after the holiday.
After the holiday, the price of raw material isooctanol stopped falling and rebounded
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 13th, the price of isooctanol was 6550 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.75% compared to the price of 6666.67 yuan/ton on October 1st, and a rebound of 1.03% compared to the price of 6483.33 yuan/ton on October 10th. Partial maintenance of isooctanol equipment in some enterprises resulted in a slight decrease in operating load and supply of isooctanol after the holiday; The profit of isooctanol is on the edge of the cost line, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices. The price of isooctanol has stopped falling and rebounded, and the cost of plasticizers has stopped falling and risen. The downward pressure on DOP has weakened, and the upward support has increased.
After the holiday, the price of raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 13th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 6216.67 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 1.22% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride at 6293.33 yuan/ton on October 1st. After the holiday, the price of ortho benzene fell, the price of industrial naphthalene fluctuated and fell, the cost support of phthalic anhydride decreased, the equipment load of phthalic anhydride slightly decreased after the holiday, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises decreased, the supply of phthalic anhydride was sufficient, the downstream plasticizer market fluctuated and fell, the equipment operating load of plasticizer enterprises decreased, and the demand support for phthalic anhydride weakened. The cost of plasticizers has decreased, and there is greater pressure to reduce the DOP of plasticizers after the holiday.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has rebounded and stopped falling, while the price of phthalic anhydride has weakly declined. The downward pressure on the cost of plasticizer DOP has weakened, and the upward support has increased; On the supply side, the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises has slightly decreased, the production of plasticizers has decreased, and the supply of plasticizers has decreased; In terms of demand, the overall economy is sluggish, coupled with anti competition and the elimination of outdated production capacity, resulting in weak downstream demand. In the future, with weak supply and demand and increased cost support, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will stabilize and stop falling.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market continued to decline in September. As of September 30th, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride was 5450 yuan/ton (including tax), a decrease of 2.77% from 5605 yuan/ton on September 1st.
Supply side: In early September, a total of 220000 tons of equipment in Shandong and Hebei underwent maintenance, and the main factories limited their shipments, resulting in a decrease in market supply and an increase in the price of maleic anhydride; In mid September, the market for maleic anhydride slightly declined, with poor bidding in Yantai in the early stage and continuous price drops. Recently, some manufacturers have limited sales operations, resulting in a slight increase in prices for maleic anhydride manufacturers, but overall supplier prices remain stable; In late September, the overall market for maleic anhydride fell. Prior to the holiday, maleic anhydride factories reduced their inventory, which provided limited support for the market. Downstream unsaturated resins of maleic anhydride had limited procurement, resulting in a poor stocking atmosphere; At the end of the month, the auction price of Wanhua continued to rise, and the factory price also increased, but the overall dealer quotation remained stable. As of September 30th, the factory price of solid anhydride in the maleic anhydride market in Shandong Province is around 5100 yuan/ton, while the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 4800 yuan/ton.
Upstream: In September, the pure benzene market in Shandong experienced ups and downs. In the first half of the year, the market price mainly fell, in the middle half, the market price mainly rose, and in the second half, the market price fell again. On September 1st, the price was 5975.33 yuan/ton; On September 30th, the price was 5848.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.12% from the beginning of the month.
The domestic n-butane market price fluctuated upward in August, and as of September 30th, the price in Shandong was around 4650 yuan/ton.
Downstream: The unsaturated resin market remained stable in mid to early September, with sufficient supply of unsaturated resin. Downstream transactions were average, with limited support for unsaturated resin; In late September, the unsaturated resin market was weak, and during the National Day holiday, most of them had short-term shutdowns or negative reduction plans. Downstream transactions were average, and support for unsaturated resin was limited, resulting in a weak market situation.
Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analyst believes that during the National Day holiday, the upstream n-butane market for maleic anhydride has fallen, and the cost support for maleic anhydride is limited; But the main downstream unsaturated resin production has gradually resumed, which provides certain support for the procurement of maleic anhydride; In addition, some maleic anhydride enterprises in Shandong have maintenance plans, and the parking facilities have not resumed production in the early stage. The available sources of goods in the main production areas are limited, which has a certain boosting effect on the maleic anhydride market. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will rise slightly in the near future.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke saw a slight increase at the end of September. As of September 30th, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 2383.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from 2357.50 yuan/ton on September 22nd.
The recent decline in crude oil prices is mainly due to OPEC+’s plan to continue increasing production in November, as well as the resumption of crude oil exports from the Kurdish region of Iraq, resulting in a decrease in international oil prices.
Recently, the petroleum coke market has seen a slight increase, with most refineries stabilizing prices and executing orders before the holiday. The price of petroleum coke has fluctuated in recent times. Recently, the shipment of petroleum coke from ports has been acceptable, while the price of sponge coke has slightly increased.
Recently, the market for calcined coke has risen, with new orders signed at the end of the month, and manufacturers showing a strong willingness to increase prices for new orders.
Market forecast: Currently, orders for manufacturers during the holiday period have basically been signed, and downstream purchases are mainly based on demand. After the holiday, there may be an increase in procurement demand, and it is expected that petroleum coke will rise slightly.

In early September, the market price of epichlorohydrin was rapidly pushed up due to the unexpected parking of a large factory. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 10th, the price of epichlorohydrin in Shandong has soared to 13000 yuan/ton, setting a new high for the year. Starting from mid month, the market price of epichlorohydrin entered a high and falling channel, and the price remained stable at the end of the month. As of September 30th, the benchmark price of epichlorohydrin in Shandong was 12200 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.17% from the beginning of the month.
Price influencing factors:
On the raw material side: In the first half of September, the glycerol market price showed a significant upward trend, mainly driven by factors such as tight supply, high external demand, and downstream demand recovery. Acrylic exhibits oscillatory operation. The trend of propylene has declined in the second half of the month. Overall, the raw material side briefly supported the cost of epichlorohydrin, and the price of epichlorohydrin fell from a high level in the second half of the month. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6598.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.98% compared to the beginning of this month (6663.25 yuan/ton).
Supply side: In early September, epoxy chloropropane was unexpectedly shut down by a large factory, which led to a more positive sentiment among suppliers. In addition, the 100000 tons/year glycerol process plant in Zibo will be shut down on August 31st, and the restart time will be notified separately; Hubei, Hebei, Zhejiang, Guangxi and other facilities are still in a parked state; The 100000 ton/year glycerol process plant in Quzhou will shut down in the morning of September 4th, and the restart time will be notified separately; In addition, some devices are parked for a long time. The tight supply side has affected the price increase of epichlorohydrin. Starting from mid month, the profit margins of epoxy chloropropane enterprises with different processes continued to expand, and production enthusiasm increased, leading to a rapid increase in market supply. In the second half of the month, the price of epoxy chloropropane fell from a high level.
On the demand side: In September, due to the unexpected shutdown of a large epoxy chloropropane factory, prices skyrocketed. Downstream epoxy resins showed strong resistance to high raw material costs, resulting in poor shipments for enterprises. Most companies were cautious and cautious, and the trading atmosphere was relatively average. The price of epichlorohydrin has fallen rapidly. It is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will remain stable in the later stage.
Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the prices of glycerol and propylene on the cost side have limited support for epichlorohydrin, and the tight situation on the supply side has also been alleviated to some extent. Downstream demand is limited in the short term due to the mentality of buying up instead of buying down. It is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will remain stable in the later stage, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.

Aluminum prices first strong and then weak in September
In September, aluminum prices first strengthened and then weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 30, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20733.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.47% compared to the market average price of 20636.67 yuan/ton on September 1.
The aluminum price has exceeded the 20000 mark and is at a relatively high level in the past 1-2 years. The price of raw material alumina has fallen from its high level, and the profit per ton of aluminum is currently in a relatively good position.
The decline in aluminum prices in September was mainly due to the weakening of the cost side. The trading logic of aluminum prices in October may continue, with an overall trend of “stabilizing first and then strengthening” with a strong oscillation. At the beginning of the month, it was suppressed by import supplements and demand wait-and-see measures. In the middle of the month, it may gradually rise with the acceleration of inventory depletion and cost increases, and the price center of gravity will further shift upward compared to September.
Fundamental forecast for October
Supply side:
The domestic operating capacity is above 44 million tons, approaching the policy ceiling of 45 million tons, and there was no significant release of new investment capacity in October. The electricity price for electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Yunnan region has been officially raised by 0.12 yuan/kWh. From the supply side, although the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production in Yunnan has been basically completed, with 545000 tons of the planned production capacity of 565000 tons restored, the increase in electricity prices still has a certain impact on enterprise production, which in turn affects the supply of aluminum ingots.
Import shock: The Shanghai London ratio fell to 7.1, opening the import window, and there are expectations of an increase in Russian aluminum imports in October.
Changes in aluminum structure: The proportion of aluminum water direct alloying has increased to 73.9%, and the proportion of aluminum ingot delivery products is less than 27%, highlighting the phenomenon of “shortage of ingots” in spot goods.
Demand side:
New energy vehicles: In the sprint stage of the peak production and sales season, Xiaomi and Huawei have increased the volume of new models, with a single vehicle using 220kg of aluminum, which is expected to bring more than 80000 tons of demand increment. This is a core positive for aluminum prices and effectively drives the demand for casting aluminum alloys.
Home appliances: The “trade in” policy will continue until the end of the year. Although the peak season for air conditioning domestic sales has ended, export growth has played a role in supporting basic demand, and aluminum profile procurement remains stable.
Power grid: Ultra high voltage projects have entered a construction peak, with an expected increase in aluminum demand in October compared to the previous month, providing mid-term support for aluminum prices, and the landing of orders is accelerating.
Real estate: The year-on-year decline in completed housing area has narrowed, and the construction of Baojiao buildings has driven the recovery of aluminum used in building materials, reducing the drag on aluminum prices and showing a marginal improvement trend.
Photovoltaics: The decline in installed capacity compared to the first half of the year has narrowed, and the rebound in module exports has driven demand for aluminum for frames. Overall, this has a neutral to bullish impact on aluminum prices, and the gap is gradually being repaired.
Cost side:
The environmental protection policies in the north restrict the release of production capacity in the roasting process, and the domestic centralized maintenance and production of new production capacity form a hedge. The pressure of oversupply may be weaker than previously expected, and the price of alumina support will operate at more than 2900 yuan/ton.
Macro factors:
Macro policies have a bottom line. Domestic planning is expected to strengthen confidence in infrastructure investment, and there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain stable interest rates in October. The rebound in risk appetite is favorable for non-ferrous metals.

Market observation indicators for the future
1. Weekly social inventory of aluminum ingots (pay attention to whether it falls below 600000 tons); ​
2. Weekly production of new energy vehicles (to determine the intensity of demand fulfillment);
3. The arrival volume of Guinea bauxite at the port (tracking changes on the cost side);
4. Shanghai London ratio and primary aluminum import profit (evaluating import impact). ​