According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell and rose this week (5.26-5.30), with an average market price of 264520 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 251610 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 4.88%.
On the supply side, the overall supply situation of major tin ore supply areas such as Yunnan is becoming tight. As a result, some smelting enterprises may take measures to suspend production and maintenance in the future to cope with the shortage of raw materials. In terms of the market, there has been a particularly strong reaction to rumors that resuming production in the Wa region requires payment of relevant fees. At present, only a few enterprises have completed the payment procedures for mining certificates, and most enterprises are still adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Most top mining traders have not taken any action. In addition, the current review measures at the China Myanmar border are relatively strict, and the entry procedures for large equipment and related mining personnel are cumbersome and complex, which further affects the resumption of production in the Wa region and prevents it from meeting market expectations.
On the demand side, the trading activity in the spot market has significantly increased recently. After the tin price experienced a sharp decline, some companies seized the opportunity to launch procurement actions. With the further decline in prices, the purchasing willingness of downstream and end enterprises has significantly increased, and they have made essential purchases according to actual needs and appropriately replenished inventory.
comprehensive analysis
In the downstream application field of tin, the market performance of tinplate and tin chemical industry is relatively average, while the increase in demand mainly comes from the largest proportion of tin solder materials. However, there are still hidden concerns on the demand side, that is, in the context of global trade conflicts, the global economic growth rate is facing the risk of decline, which brings great uncertainty to the demand for tin. Although the resumption of production in the mining sector and trade conflicts between major countries have had a negative impact on tin prices, the strong performance of the current actual demand side and the shortage of tin ore supply can still provide some support for tin prices.

Price Trend Review
In early May, macro sentiment rebounded and fundamentals suppressed alternately, causing fluctuations in nickel prices. On May 16th, it reached a monthly high of 126258 yuan/ton; In late May, the favorable macroeconomic policies failed to offset the pressure of weak fundamentals, and the center of gravity of nickel prices shifted downwards.
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on May 29th, spot nickel was reported at 121758 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 2.73% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.63%.
Macro level: Policy boost has limited effect
Positive policies and short-term sentiment boost: China US trade breakthrough easing, significant tariff reduction (effective May 12th): Both sides cancel 91% tariffs, suspend 24%, and reduce remaining tariffs to 10%, directly easing cost pressures on export-oriented manufacturing. After the agreement came into effect, the booking volume of container transportation between China and the United States surged by 277% within 9 days, easing the export pressure of downstream nickel (stainless steel, battery materials) and improving market expectations for metal demand. Domestic financial policies are being strengthened: the central bank, the State Administration of Financial Supervision, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly released a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations, increase expectations of loose liquidity, and boost sentiment in the industrial products market.
Marginal diminishing policy effects: In late May, the market’s optimistic sentiment towards the reduction of tariffs between China and the United States was completely digested, lacking new drivers. The central bank announced interest rate cuts and lowered deposit rates, but the credit demand of enterprises and residents was sluggish, the willingness of real consumption and investment was weak, the expectation of metal demand did not improve significantly, and the rebound of nickel prices was weak.
Supply side: Continued excess pressure
Indonesia’s nickel ore supply is tight: The rainy season in May affected nickel ore mining, coupled with the addition of a 1.5% nickel product royalty fee, which pushed up costs in the short term and put pressure on nickel iron prices.
Rumors of a ban on nickel ore exports from the Philippines: Market rumors suggest that the Philippines plans to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025 (requiring congressional approval and a 5-year implementation cycle), which will stimulate bullish sentiment in the short term, but the actual supply impact is limited. At present, the rainy season in the Philippines has ended, shipping volume has rebounded, nickel ore prices have fallen, and the marginal cost support has weakened.
Excess inventory: LME nickel inventory decreased by 1176 tons per month (to 200142 tons); Domestic nickel inventory in Shanghai has decreased by 2138 tons per month (to 22170 tons), and the pressure on domestic and foreign spot prices has slightly eased. The global surplus is still under pressure.

Demand side: Stainless steel off-season+weak demand for new energy
The confidence in the stainless steel industry is low: steel mills are under pressure on profits, production schedules have decreased month on month, and the off-season effect is evident. The accumulation of steel mills’ inventory has suppressed their willingness to purchase, and nickel demand has only maintained basic demand. On May 29th, the spot price of stainless steel was reported at 13175 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.96% from the beginning of the month.
New energy demand differentiation: The installation volume of ternary batteries has declined, with a month on month decrease of 7.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.3% in April, and the proportion has shrunk to 17.2%; The dominant position of lithium iron phosphate has been strengthened, with its proportion increasing to 82.8%, further squeezing the application space of nickel in power batteries. Export drag, the export of ternary precursors in April decreased by 67% year-on-year, and weak overseas demand constrained nickel consumption.
Market forecast: The pattern of oversupply is difficult to change, there is a lack of bright spots in demand, the macro boost is weak, and there is no obvious upward driving force in fundamentals. The cost of nickel ore in Indonesia is rising, and support still exists. It is expected that nickel prices will remain within a range of fluctuations. Attention should be paid to Indonesia’s nickel ore export policy in June.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the styrene market has been operating with narrow fluctuations recently, and there have been no new maintenance or restarts in the supply side recently. The port inventory is in the middle, and the supply side support is relatively strong. The raw material pure benzene is affected by macro and internal supply and demand factors, and the price remains stable at a low level, with weak support on the raw material side. Looking at the future, the profit of styrene has been restored, and some maintenance facilities have plans to restart in advance, leading to an increase in supply expectations. At the same time, there is a high possibility that the raw material pure benzene will remain weak. It is expected that the styrene market will operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PP market was consolidating and operating at the end of May, with most brand products experiencing narrow price adjustments. As of May 27th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7426.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.74% compared to the price level at the beginning of May.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
The positive impact of many positive signals such as the suspension of tariffs released during the mid May US China talks still exists, coupled with the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, the risk of crude oil supply has increased, and prices have remained firm. At the same time, the decoupling of domestic propane trade is expected to gradually be lifted, and the cost pressure on PDH manufacturing enterprises may decrease in the future, but the differentiation of demand will hinder the growth rate. There is a certain degree of loose supply in the propylene sector, coupled with the basic end of pre holiday stocking, resulting in price fluctuations and downward adjustments. Overall, at the end of May, the prices of various PP raw materials fluctuated, providing moderate support for PP costs.
Supply side:
At the end of May, the load of domestic PP enterprises remained stable with small fluctuations, and the market supply remained generally abundant. Overall, the industry’s overall load level remains almost unchanged from the mid month level of 77%, with an average weekly total output of approximately 750000 tons also stabilizing. The new production capacity of 1.4 million tons in the next quarter is approaching, and there is a clear expectation of loose supply in the future. The total domestic inventory continues to decline to below 820000 tons, but remains at a high level. Overall, there is still some suppression on the spot price of PP by the supply side.
In terms of demand:
At the end of May, the demand side of PP continued to be weak, and on-site trading gradually entered the traditional off-season. The goods were basically ready before the Dragon Boat Festival, and the market remained weak and rigid. The consumption level of plastic weaving terminal enterprises has returned to the off-season level ahead of schedule. With the passing of the small peak in material usage, the release speed of PP demand in fields such as construction and agriculture has slowed down. The impact of the suspension of tariffs between China and the United States in the early stage has cooled down, and although the export resistance of downstream PP products in China has decreased, the export increment still needs time. At the same time, there is still supply pressure in the industry, and inventory still needs to be cleared, offsetting some positive factors. As the current holiday approaches, buyers are cautious in their purchasing operations to maintain production, leaning towards scattered small orders, and new market transactions are returning to a flat state. Overall, the performance of the PP demand side at the end of May was average.
Future forecast
At the end of May, the domestic PP market prices were consolidating and weak. Fundamentally speaking, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is average. The industry has abundant supply, inventory continues to be digested, and consumption has entered the off-season level. At present, the positive sentiment of macroeconomic policies is being digested, and the market is dominated by supply and demand, with businesses entering the end of month task completion and settlement range. It is expected that the PP market will continue to consolidate in the short term, and it is recommended to closely monitor the new production situation in the industry.

At the end of May, the domestic ABS market experienced a slight decline, with most grades experiencing a narrow downward adjustment in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 26th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10662.50 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -0.58% compared to early May.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: At the end of May, the load of the domestic ABS industry continued to decline, with the overall load level dropping from 67% in mid May to around 61% currently. The average weekly production has fallen back to 110000 tons, and although the inventory level of aggregation enterprises is still at a high level, it has been reduced to a certain extent, and the on-site supply is still at a relatively sufficient level. At the same time, the recent release of new equipment capacity by two companies still has a certain suppressive impact on the industry’s supply support, and there is still some supply pressure in the market. Overall, the supply side has shown some improvement in support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: At the end of May, the upstream three materials and one change of ABS showed strong performance in mid month, which began to weaken the support for ABS cost side. In terms of acrylonitrile, the initial spot resources are limited, and manufacturers continue to raise prices at high levels. However, as the domestic unit price continues to rise, the growth space of downstream demand limits the further increase of acrylonitrile. Although there is still no pressure on factory inventory, new production capacity will continue to be added in the long run, and overall supply is abundant, so the market is fluctuating downwards.
The domestic butadiene market price has significantly fallen recently. The downstream synthetic rubber futures market has weakened, with weak market demand, leading to a general weakening of the spot market mentality. In terms of supply and demand, the recent arrival of port cargo in the East China region has been good, and the overall market supply is relatively loose. Under the influence of multiple negative factors, the butadiene market has mainly operated weakly this week.
At the end of May, the domestic styrene market ended its upward trend, and prices fluctuated and fell back. The good news for raw material pure benzene has been exhausted, and the load of the equipment has increased. Coupled with the continuous high supply from South Korea, there is a greater pressure to reduce inventory, and the price center has shifted downwards. Secondly, the high inventory of styrene downstream and weak demand, coupled with the early completion of maintenance for some facilities, have further suppressed the rise in styrene prices due to increased supply. In the short term, the raw material pure benzene is weak and difficult to change, and it is expected that the styrene market will operate weakly in the short term.
On the demand side: In the early stage of the China US talks, both sides reached an agreement to reduce tariffs, which is beneficial for the commodity market and significantly boosts the export market in areas such as small household appliances and consumer electronics at the macro level. The export orders of ABS terminal factories rebounded rapidly, and the load also increased accordingly, leading to a surge in on-site trading volume. But with the gradual release of macroeconomic favorable factors, the liquidity of goods has cooled down, and the purchasing logic has shifted to stocking up on essential needs. In addition, the inventory position is relatively high in the middle of the month, and there is a large space for on-site disposal, so there is no tight situation on the supply side. Overall, the demand side has cooled down the support for the ABS market.
Future forecast
At the end of May, the domestic ABS market remained stagnant and decreased. The prices of upstream three materials have weakened, which has led to a decline in comprehensive support for ABS cost side. The production load of ABS polymerization plant continues to decrease, and the demand side heat is cooling down. Business analysts believe that the previous suspension of tariffs between China and the United States, as well as favorable export window periods, have contributed to a surge in spot prices in the middle of the month. However, as the market continues to heat up, businesses are returning to a cautious attitude. At the end of the month, under the dual pressure of cost and demand, it is expected that the ABS market will continue to consolidate and operate weakly.