The supply-demand game saw the acrylonitrile market rise first and then fall this week. As of May 23rd, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup at East China ports remains at 8500-8700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week’s high-end price; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market remains at around 8400-8500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week’s low-end price.
In the first half of this week, spot resources were limited and factory inventory was not under pressure. Despite continuous losses, manufacturers continued to raise prices at high levels. Coupled with expectations of a gradual increase in acrylic fiber load, market sentiment was supported, and domestic acrylonitrile market prices fluctuated upwards. As the weekend approaches, although factory inventory is still not under pressure, overall supply is abundant, and in the long run, new production capacity will continue to be put into operation. However, downstream demand growth space is limited, so the market is fluctuating downwards.
Supply side: Since May, the capacity utilization rate of the acrylonitrile industry has gradually decreased to below 75%, with reduced production but overall supply remaining abundant, with only a slight shortage of spot resources in certain markets. From the perspective of the northern market, the external sales volume has also significantly decreased since May; Although the new production capacity of Sinochem Quanzhou in the East China market has been released, it is reported that most of it is flowing to the South China market and underground contract factories in Zhejiang. At the same time, the restart process of Anqing Petrochemical’s 80000 ton plant is slow, and shipments are not as expected.
On the demand side, the consumption of acrylonitrile in the main downstream industries has also shown an increase, especially in the production of acrylic fiber enterprises, which has gradually increased from less than 30% to over 40%. It is expected that the Jilin chemical fiber plant will gradually recover in the middle and late stages, and the overall load of acrylic fiber may recover to above 60% by then; The ABS industry has maintained a production rate of below 70%, but the total production capacity of the industry has gradually increased to 9.765 million tons per year, resulting in an increase in acrylonitrile consumption.
However, although the consumption of the main downstream industries has shown growth, there are also many stocks in the early stage, so there is no significant gap in contract supply. Moreover, with the restart of the Haijiang plant in the future, new production capacity will gradually be released, and the tight situation of spot resources will gradually ease. Therefore, the market lacks the driving force to continue to rise. In addition, in the long run, the 400000 ton acrylonitrile new unit of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical is planned to start production in early June, and the 260000 ton expansion unit of Jilin Petrochemical is planned to start production in late June. At that time, the situation of oversupply will worsen again, and the existing units will still face passive production reduction pressure.
Overall, the current overall supply is abundant, and in the long run, new production capacity will continue to be put into operation. However, there is limited room for downstream demand growth, so it is expected that the market will experience fluctuations and decline.

Recently (5.12~5.20), the butadiene rubber market has seen a significant upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 20th, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 12670 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.41% from 12020 yuan/ton on May 12th. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted upwards; Shunding rubber production has increased, but supply pressure still exists; Downstream tire production has increased, providing essential support for butadiene rubber. As of May 20th, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were 12550-13000 yuan/ton.
Recently (5.12~5.20), the price of butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted upwards. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 20th, the price of butadiene was 11233 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.36% from 9333 yuan/ton on May 12th.
Recently (5.12~5.20), the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants has slightly increased, with the overall construction rate rising to around 7.9%. The supply of butadiene rubber still exists.
Demand side: The recent increase in downstream tire production (5.12~5.20) continues to support the butadiene rubber market. As of May 16th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 7.8%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 6.5%.
Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of butadiene will remain high in the short term, and the cost support of butadiene rubber will be strong; The increase in downstream construction has a greater impact on the market of butadiene rubber. Overall, it is expected that the butadiene rubber market will fluctuate and consolidate in the later stage.

1、 Price trend
Taking the sulfuric acid method gold red stone titanium dioxide, which has a large volume of goods in the domestic market, as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the price of titanium dioxide in the domestic market decreased in mid May. On May 11th, the average price of titanium dioxide was 15200 yuan/ton, and on May 20th, the average price of titanium dioxide was 15080 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 0.79%.
2、 Market analysis
In mid May, the domestic titanium dioxide market prices were lowered. The upstream titanium concentrate market is operating weakly, and sulfuric acid prices are fluctuating downwards at a low level. Insufficient cost support. Downstream market demand is weak, with limited new orders and weak demand. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 14000-15600 yuan/ton; Sharp titanium type costs around 12700-13000 yuan/ton; The actual transaction price is negotiable.
In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate has been weak this week. Downstream demand for titanium dioxide is poor, with light new orders and cautious procurement of raw materials. The main focus is on observing and observing, with mining companies facing significant shipping pressure and overall market prices remaining weak and stable. As of now, the transaction price of 46,10 titanium ore for small and medium-sized manufacturers is between 1870-2100 yuan/ton; The price of 47,20 ore ranges from 2200-2280 yuan/ton; The price of 38 titanium ore excluding tax is around 1150-1120 yuan/ton. It is expected that the mainstream titanium mines in the Panxi region will operate weakly and steadily in the short term.
3、 Future forecast
Business Society’s titanium dioxide analyst believes that the domestic titanium dioxide market price will decrease in mid May. The downstream market still hasn’t shown much improvement, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, light trading volume, and cautious actual orders. It is expected that in the short term, the market situation of titanium dioxide will be mainly wait-and-see, and the actual transaction price will be subject to negotiation.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 7428 yuan/ton on May 12th and 7566 yuan/ton on May 16th, with a rise of 1.86% during this period. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9116 yuan/ton on May 12th and 9350 yuan/ton on May 16th, with a 2.56% increase during this period. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8112 yuan/ton on May 12th and 8137 yuan/ton on May 16th, with a 0.31% increase during this period.
This week (5.12-5.16), the polyethylene market rebounded. The favorable tariff policies between China and the United States have led to an increase in cost side oil prices, which is favorable for the rebound of the polyethylene market. The maintenance of the supply side equipment has eased the supply pressure on site, and the inventory of rising petrochemical enterprises and intermediaries has been reduced. Agricultural film is in the off-season of demand, and the operating rate has declined compared to the previous period, with insufficient support from the demand side. In terms of exports, some enterprises have seen an improvement in their export orders. As the weekend approaches, the rise in polyethylene prices has weakened, and the willingness of end-users to accept high priced goods has decreased, resulting in a slowdown in transactions. The market is mainly digesting the previous gains. The supply and demand of polyethylene face limited market support. Macro environment preference, polyethylene is expected to have a strong trend in the short term.

The domestic acrylonitrile price began to consolidate horizontally at the end of April, and on May 13th, this stalemate was finally broken. Manufacturers’ quoted prices showed a slight increase. As of May 16th, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup at East China ports remained at 8500-8600 yuan/ton, an increase of 300-400 yuan/ton from last week; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market remains at around 8350-8500 yuan/ton, up 400-450 yuan/ton from last week.
Before and after the May Day holiday, the acrylonitrile market was in a state of weak supply-demand balance, with some equipment maintenance leading to tight supply. However, the inventory of acrylonitrile factories was controllable, and coupled with no significant improvement in downstream demand, the operating rate of the main downstream ABS industry was only 69%. Manufacturers’ willingness to raise prices and weak demand balanced each other, and the transaction center of East China ports remained in the range of 8100-8300 yuan/ton. Entering this week, local spot supply has tightened, and factories have shown a clear willingness to raise prices under low profits, thus driving the spot market up to 8500-8600 yuan/ton.
At the same time, the price of raw material propylene continues to rise, with the mainstream price in Shandong region ranging from 6500-6700 yuan/ton, and cost pressure is transmitted to the acrylonitrile production end.
At present, the profit situation of the acrylonitrile industry is not optimistic. On the one hand, the demand for terminal home appliances and the automotive market appears weak, and the resistance to high priced raw materials continues to rise. Downstream industries such as ABS and acrylic continue to have low operating rates. On the other hand, the supply of acrylonitrile is increasing. Due to multiple factors, the upward potential of acrylonitrile prices is limited, and profit margins are squeezed. Since March, acrylonitrile factories have been in a loss making state, and their willingness to repair profits is very strong.
It is worth noting that the suspension of tariffs between China and the United States is limited to 90 days. If no consensus is reached in subsequent negotiations, companies may face a second round of “export competition” pressure, leading to increased supply chain fluctuations. In terms of terminals, export orders in small household appliances, consumer electronics and other fields have rebounded rapidly, and enterprises have locked in profits by stocking up in advance. The demand for some nitrile gloves will also increase significantly.
However, Zhenhai Refining and Chemical has a start-up plan in June, and coupled with the successful trial production of the 260000 ton/year unit of Sinochem Quanzhou Petrochemical in April, the total domestic acrylonitrile production capacity will be greatly increased, and the supply increment will enter an accelerated release stage. The increment brought by the new unit’s commissioning far exceeds the periodic shutdown loss, and the supply side pressure is enormous. On the other hand, downstream industries such as acrylic fiber and acrylamide only maintain rigid demand, making it difficult to absorb new production capacity.
Overall, factories have reacted quickly to the recent increase in acrylonitrile prices, and the spot market has mostly followed the factory’s upward trend. However, due to limited downstream substantial demand, although the acrylonitrile market price will increase significantly in the short term, the sustainability of the upward trend is not stable, and caution should be exercised in the operation process.