According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from May 6th to 11th, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market increased from 9662 yuan/ton to 9681 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.19% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 0.39%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.69%. The domestic price of cyclohexanone has been consolidating and running, with high fluctuations in pure benzene after the holiday, and the cost pressure remains unchanged. Downstream chemical fibers and solvents are mostly purchased on demand, with stable and abundant spot supply in the market. High priced shipments are hindered, and the market is undergoing consolidation and operation.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The pure benzene market fluctuates at a high level. As of May 11th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 8758.83 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 7.14 million tons, and the current operating load is close to 70%, which is at a relatively low level. The operating load of cyclohexanone is 67.46%, with a weekly production of 105100 tons, which has increased compared to the previous week. The supply of cyclohexanone is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The price of caprolactam has risen, and there has been good demand in the downstream PA6 chip market recently. The prices of polymerization factory chips have risen and production has remained high, providing support for the demand for caprolactam. And currently, the difference between benzene and caprolactam is relatively low, and cost pressure still exists for caprolactam enterprises, leading to an increase in product prices. The demand for cyclohexanone is temporarily positive.

In the future market forecast, there will be significant cost pressure and average downstream demand. There is a slight expectation of a decrease in spot supply in the market. The cyclohexanone analyst from Shengyishe predicts that the domestic cyclohexanone market will be strong in the short term.

The domestic titanium tetrachloride market remained stable this week. According to the monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of May 9th, the benchmark price of titanium tetrachloride in Shengyishe was 10825.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.

Raw material side: The price of titanium concentrate is running at a high level, which puts pressure on the cost of high titanium slag enterprises. In addition, with the increase in electricity prices in Liaoning region, most production enterprises are losing money, and the market price of high titanium slag is under pressure and rising.

The downstream titanium dioxide market prices are weak and weak, and the current market trading situation is average.

Business Society’s titanium tetrachloride analyst believes that the high cost side of titanium tetrachloride is under pressure, and downstream titanium dioxide market prices are weak and weak, resulting in a cold trading atmosphere in the market. Recently, the titanium tetrachloride market has mainly stabilized and consolidated temporarily.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong has recently increased. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4825.00 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4850.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.52%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.20%.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is mainly experiencing a narrow upward trend. In recent times, there has been little contradiction in the fundamentals of methanol. The inventory of mainland sample enterprises is relatively low, and there is not much pressure on their shipments. In addition, some enterprises are outsourcing, resulting in a relatively high market atmosphere. The overall market is mainly strong. Downstream MTBE: After Yuhuang starts construction, it will affect next week’s production, leading to an increase in MTBE demand; Downstream chloride: After the shutdown and maintenance of mainstream factories in Shandong, the equipment returned to normal, and the demand for chloride increased; The short-term domestic methanol market is mainly characterized by strong performance.

In recent times, the methanol market has shown an upward trend, and cost support is still acceptable. Downstream demand for procurement is maintained, and polyformaldehyde enterprises are arranging orders for shipment. Polyformaldehyde analysts from Business Society predict that prices may slightly increase.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 7th, the price of sodium acetate trihydrate was 2218 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.85% compared to April 30th at 2283 yuan/ton.

On the cost side:

In early May, the raw material acetic acid maintained a pre holiday fluctuation trend. With the restart of shutdown facilities in early April, the supply of acetic acid in the market gradually recovered. Downstream purchasing willingness was not strong, and prices continued to decline, weakening support for sodium acetate.

Market analysis: Although the support for raw material acetic acid has weakened, the recent trend of raw material soda ash is relatively strong, which provides some support for sodium acetate. It is expected that sodium acetate will operate in a volatile manner in the future.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, in April, the domestic organic silicon DMC market showed a continuous weak downward trend, with the center of gravity of organic silicon DMC continuously declining. On April 1st, the price of organic silicon DMC participated in 15260 yuan/ton, and on April 30th, the price of organic silicon DMC referenced 13500 yuan/ton. In April, the decline of organic silicon DMC reached 11.53%.

According to the market analysis system of Shengyishe Organic Silicon DMC from the beginning of the year to the present, it can be seen that the domestic organic silicon DMC market experienced an upward trend from January to March in the first quarter, but the good times did not last long. Starting from mid to late March, the high market price of organic silicon DMC began to decline, and throughout April, the market price of organic silicon DMC continued to approach the low level. On April 30th, the price of organic silicon DMC was at its lowest level in 2024, which had already swallowed up the market surge of organic silicon DMC in the first quarter. From the annual comparison chart of organic silicon DMC, it can be seen that the current market price of organic silicon DMC has dropped to the lowest level in nearly four years.

The influencing factors of the decline in the organic silicon DMC market in April:

In April, downstream demand for organic silicon DMC was weak, with downstream users mainly digesting early raw materials. New orders on the market were weak, and the market inquiry atmosphere was insufficient, making it difficult for the demand side to provide effective support for organic silicon DMC. In late April, although some organic silicon DMC devices were shut down for maintenance, the overall operating rate of the organic silicon DMC site decreased. However, due to slow demand transmission, the overall on-site supply of organic silicon DMC remained loose, and there was overall supply pressure in the market. The support provided by the supply side to the market also showed signs of fatigue.

Can the organic silicon DMC market see a turning point in May?

After Labor Day, the silicone DMC market also entered May. Firstly, let’s take a look at the market performance of organic silicon DMC on the first day of operation after Labor Day. On the first day of operation, Shandong’s large organic silicon DMC maintained a stable pre holiday quotation, with a price reference of around 13200 yuan/ton. Other factories also closely followed in the footsteps of large factories, maintaining a stable pre holiday quotation. On May 6th, the market price of organic silicon DMC was set at 13200-14000 yuan/ton.

In terms of commencement: In April, some organic silicon DMC shutdown and maintenance facilities will gradually resume and restart in May. It is expected that the decline in organic silicon DMC production in May will be lower than expected, and coupled with the input of some new production capacity, the operating rate of organic silicon DMC plants is likely to increase instead of decrease in May. The increase in operating rate will also increase the supply pressure on organic silicon DMC factories, so the game between supply and demand of organic silicon DMC still exists in May.

In terms of demand: At the end of April, there was a small-scale bottoming and stocking of organic silicon DMC downstream, but the overall wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream remained, and the overall pre holiday stocking was lower than expected. After entering May, the overall pre order volume of the organic silicon DMC factory is limited. Due to the potential growth impact from the supply side, organic silicon DMC operators are concerned about the continued intensification of supply and demand contradictions, and the downstream bottom buying sentiment of organic silicon DMC is poor. Therefore, currently, there has been no significant boost in downstream demand for organic silicon DMC, and factories actively shipping to drive downstream demand will still dominate.

In terms of supply: Affected by the increase in production, the overall supply pressure of organic silicon DMC will still exist in May. However, although the supply pressure does not decrease, the current market price of organic silicon DMC has dropped to a low point, with some regions having low prices close to 13000 yuan/ton. Therefore, factories are not willing to continue adjusting prices downwards. It is expected that in May, the control of supply side inventory and timely regulation of production and load reduction in the organic silicon DMC market will be more important.

Technical aspect: Organic silicon DMC is at a low level, and there is still a narrow downward risk in May

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the current market price of organic silicon DMC is at a one-year low, a two-year low, and a three-year low.

Starting from April, the organic silicon DMC 7-day moving average and 30 day moving average started a downward trend at the same time. At the end of April, although the organic silicon DMC 7-day moving average performed steadily, the 30 day moving average was still in a downward trend. Therefore, according to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, the probability of a change in the operating trend (i.e. the 7-day moving average crossing the 30 day moving average) in the next 7 days is not high.

In summary, the organic silicon DMC data analyst from Business Society believes that as we enter May, the overall supply-demand contradiction in the organic silicon DMC market still exists, and the pressure on the supply side remains unchanged. The boosting of the demand side is unknown, and the regulation between supply and demand needs to be observed. Therefore, there is still a downward risk in the organic silicon DMC market in May. However, facing the current almost bottoming out price, the probability of a significant decline in organic silicon DMC is small, and the market focus is likely to narrow downward adjustment, with an estimated adjustment range of around 100-200 yuan/ton.