Aluminum prices fluctuate narrowly in May

Aluminum prices fluctuate narrowly in May
In May 2026, the overall price of aluminum ingots showed a fluctuating pattern of first falling, then rising, and then falling back. The price center within the range fluctuated around 24400 yuan/ton, with an overall amplitude of 2.28% (based on the price on May 1st), reaching a high of 24620 yuan/ton and a low of 24063.3 yuan/ton. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 22, 2026, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market was 24363.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16% from the market average price of 24403.33 yuan/ton on May 1; The market average price is 24620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.04% compared to the high point of the month (5.14); The average market price for the month’s double low (5.7&5.18) was 24063.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.25%,
The general logic of aluminum price operation in May is as follows:
The trend of aluminum prices this month is dominated by the differentiation of internal and external fundamentals, maintaining an overall range oscillation pattern. The overseas geopolitical situation continues to be disturbed, with limited production of aluminum plants in the Middle East region and obstructed sea transportation. Global aluminum raw material supply is tightening, and London aluminum inventory is at a low level for many years. The shortage premium in peripheral markets continues to provide bottom support for domestic aluminum prices.
The domestic market supply and demand performance is relatively stable, with strict control over electrolytic aluminum production capacity, a slight increase in monthly output, and limited supply side increment. The downstream industry is gradually entering the traditional off-season of consumption, with weak purchasing enthusiasm of end enterprises, insufficient follow-up of market transactions, obvious pressure on the high price range, and constrained upward space.
In terms of market rhythm, the market trading was light during the holiday at the beginning of the month, and prices remained stable; Affected by macro data after the holiday, aluminum prices quickly fell back and hit a monthly low; Subsequently, driven by the strengthening of the external market and the steady depletion of domestic inventory, prices rebounded and surged; At the end of the month, the market speculation sentiment cooled down, and funds profited and left. Coupled with the drag of off-season demand, aluminum prices gradually fell and maintained a narrow range of fluctuations.
At the macro level, fluctuations in the US dollar and expectations of overseas interest rate hikes have repeatedly disturbed the commodity market, further exacerbating short-term fluctuations in aluminum prices. At present, the long short game is relatively balanced, with positive supply side and negative demand side balancing each other. There is currently no clear unilateral breakthrough direction for aluminum prices in the short term.