Price trend

The ABS market in China rose slightly in January. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the average price on January 16 was 11850 yuan/ton,+0.85% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: ABS upstream three materials have been relatively strong in recent years. Among them, the market price of acrylonitrile rose slightly, and the price of raw material propylene rose. In addition, the manufacturer’s listing price rose in January, and the merchant’s offer rose.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has continued to rise, the prices of mainstream suppliers have risen strongly, and the inventory of East China tank farm has declined, supporting the firm intention of some merchants to offer. However, some of the high prices still need to be followed up. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will run at a high level in the short term.

The mainstream price of styrene in Shandong rebounded after falling last week, and the overall price rose. The international oil price rebounded, the pure benzene market rose slightly, and the downstream remained just in need of bargain-hunting and replenishment, while the styrene market rose supported by costs. As the Spring Festival approaches, the preparation of goods before the holiday is superimposed on the export pickup, and the styrene market is expected to rise in the short term.

On the supply side: the load of ABS industry remained high last week, the current plant operation was stable, and the supply of goods on the site continued to be abundant. As a result of the enterprise’s inventory reduction and decompression operation, the inventory position fell back, and the ex-factory price increased steadily.

In terms of demand: at present, the downstream factories including the main terminal appliance industry are in order to prepare goods, and the early stage of goods preparation in the field before the festival is basically completed. In the near future, the demand tends to be stable, and the goods are normally transported in the field. Buyers and merchants followed the market and performed steadily.

Aftermarket forecast

In the middle of January, the trend of the upstream three materials of ABS was relatively strong, which supported the cost side of ABS moderately. The petrochemical plant started at a high level and the supply was stable. Before the end of the demand period, the stock support was general, the seller’s offer was firm, and the market was firm. It is expected that the ABS market will be dominated by shock consolidation and operation in the short term.

The crude oil continued to rise, and the PTA price continued to rise driven by the cost. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic PTA market continued to rise. As of January 13, the average price of the East China market was 5535 yuan/ton, up 2.96% from the previous day, up 6.18% year on year.

Recently, the number of PTA devices restarted has increased, and the supply of PTA has increased. At present, the domestic PTA operating rate has risen to 68%. The 1 million ton unit of Chuaneng Chemical started to restart on January 9. In addition, the 2 million ton unit of Yisheng Ningbo is under shutdown, and it is planned to restart at the end of January.

Influenced by the optimistic expectation of China’s demand outlook and the unexpected drop in consumer prices in the United States in December, the Federal Reserve’s tightening monetary policy slowed down and oil prices gained support. As of January 12, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $78.39/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $84.03/barrel.

With the approaching of the Lunar New Year, the downstream terminal weaving was centralized for holiday, and the start of work fell significantly into the shutdown stage, and the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms fell below 10%. Textile enterprises are not willing to prepare goods before the festival, and weaving orders are expected to remain weak after the year.

Analysts from the Business Agency believe that the current PTA multiple sets of maintenance devices have restarted and the operating rate has rebounded, and the supply has increased. Under the traditional off-season, demand is sluggish, accelerating the accumulation of inventory. The cost center is rising, but the supply and demand are not driven. It is expected that the short-term PTA price rise will be limited.

On January 11, the mainstream quotation range of 1 # tin ingot in the spot market in East China was 207500-209500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 208500 yuan/ton, up 4750 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.

On the night of the 10th, the US dollar fluctuated in a narrow range at the lowest level in the past seven months, up 0.1%, while Lunxi rose 0.22% and Shanghaitin rose 0.82%. As of the 11th, the closing settlement price of the main Shanghai-tin 2302 contract was 208960 yuan/ton, up 3.96%.

Tin prices have risen continuously in the past two days, mainly boosted by positive macro factors. Basically, the current operating rate has risen slightly, and the overall performance is a loose supply pattern. In terms of downstream demand, the pre-season stock preparation has basically come to an end, some enterprises have made holiday arrangements, solder enterprises have started to decline, tin ingot inventory has recently rebounded, terminal electronic goods and other goods have performed poorly in January, and demand support is limited. In the future, the business agency believes that the tin price will be dominated by negative in the long run, and it is expected that the overall weak operation will prevail. In the short term, it is still affected by many macro factors, maintaining a broad volatility trend.

1、 Price trend

Take the rutile titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid process, which has a large volume of goods in the domestic market, as an example. According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the market price of titanium dioxide was basically stable this week. The average price of domestic titanium dioxide is 15933.33 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of titanium dioxide was basically stable this week. The domestic titanium dioxide market has a general trading situation, and the downstream market will purchase as needed near the Spring Festival, with a small amount of stock. The raw material market is at a high level, and titanium dioxide manufacturers are under great pressure, and some manufacturers have been shut down for maintenance. The market as a whole is mainly about maintaining stability. Up to now, most domestic rutile titanium dioxide quotations are between 15000-17500 yuan/ton; The quotation of anatase titanium dioxide is about 14000-14500 yuan/ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region kept stable operation. At present, the overall trading volume of the market is acceptable. Downstream titanium dioxide is purchased according to demand, and Panzhihua Mine is limited in operation. The supply of titanium ore in the market is not large, and the overall market is temporarily stable. Up to now, the tax-free quotation of 38-42 grade titanium concentrate is about 1420-1450 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation of 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate is about 2080-2150 yuan/ton, and the quotation of 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is about 2300-2400 yuan/ton. In the short term, the transaction of the titanium concentrate market is fair, and the overall market is strong, and the actual transaction price is single.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price fell this week. The price of sulfuric acid decreased from 286.67 yuan/ton on Monday to 280 yuan/ton on Friday, with a decrease of 2.33%. The upstream sulfur market has fallen slightly recently, and the cost support is insufficient. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market fell slightly, the titanium dioxide market was low and consolidated, and the downstream customers were generally motivated to purchase sulfuric acid.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the titanium dioxide analyst of the Business Agency, the market price of sulfuric acid was reduced this week, and the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi was stable. The cost of titanium dioxide is generally supported. At present, the domestic titanium dioxide market demand is still weak. There is a small amount of replenishment in the downstream near the Spring Festival holiday, and the manufacturer’s quotation is more firm. It is expected that the price of titanium dioxide will be stable in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiated.

Futures market: this week (1.3-1.6), staple fiber futures fell in shock. The main contract of short-fiber PF futures closed at 6954 on Friday, down 3.84% from last week’s closing price. The settlement price is 6936 yuan. This week, the main domestic staple fiber upstream raw material PTA futures fell 3.86% to 5326, and the main ethylene glycol futures fell 2.00% to 4106.

Spot price: The spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber rose slightly this week. According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber was about 7332 yuan/ton on January 6, up 0.41% from Monday and 2.52% from the same period last year.

The market is worried that the weak global economic outlook may reduce the demand for crude oil. The crude oil inventory data to be released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday shows that the US crude oil inventory increased last week. In addition, there is news in the spot market that Saudi Arabia may reduce the price of crude oil sold to Asia to the lowest level in 15 months. This week, international oil prices fell sharply, and WTI crude oil futures in the United States fell by 8.40%, the lowest closing price in three weeks, and the largest one-day decline since September 23. The sharp drop in oil price dragged down the price of the whole polyester industry chain. This week, the crude oil price at the cost end of PTA was under pressure, the unit operation was slightly reduced, the downstream polyester load was slightly reduced, and the supply and demand sides were weakened. The supply pressure of ethylene glycol has been alleviated due to the centralized maintenance of some enterprises’ devices recently, but the demand for ethylene glycol has weakened near the Spring Festival, and the port inventory is relatively high.

Short fiber was relatively resistant to decline in December under the support of macro benefits and relatively strong costs. In the middle of January, the load of the expansion staple fiber plant was increased, and the plan to restart the long spinning staple fiber plant increased, and the pressure on the accumulation of staple fiber increased. Influenced by the traditional off-season and the rising number of people infected by the epidemic, the cotton mills and weaving factories are seriously short of workers. They have been on holiday before the Spring Festival, and the operating rate has declined rapidly. The support for staple fiber is limited.

Short-term staple fiber prices are expected to be weak and volatile. In the future, we will focus on the trend of crude oil price, the national epidemic situation and the holiday of the industrial chain.