1、 Price trend
According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of caustic soda first fell and then rose in March, and overall declined. At the beginning of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was 916 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was around 866 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.46%, and a decrease of 31.13% compared to the same period last year. On March 30th, the caustic soda commodity index was 124.60, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 53.06% from the cycle’s highest point of 265.47 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 91.37% from the lowest point of 65.11 points on October 9th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)
2、 Market analysis
According to survey data from Business Society, the price of caustic soda rose first and then fell this month. In mid to early March, the price of caustic soda decreased, and the downstream alumina procurement was average. The trading atmosphere was relatively light. Some caustic soda units have reduced their load, but overall, the supply is still relatively sufficient. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and market caution is lingering. In late March, the price of caustic soda increased, and some regions have seen a decrease in caustic soda equipment recently. The inventory of caustic soda has decreased, and the overall supply is lower than in the previous period. Downstream demand is still mainly based on on-demand procurement, and the on-site trading atmosphere is average. Market transactions are relatively flat.
According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, in the 12th week of 2023 (3.20-3.24), there was one commodity that rose, two commodities that fell, and two commodities that rose or fell to zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities that have increased are: caustic soda (1.49%); The main commodities that fell were calcium carbide (-8.46%) and PVC (-1.49%). This week’s average rise and fall was -1.69%.
Analysts from Business Society believe that the caustic soda market has been operating well in the near future, and the market trading atmosphere is still good. The mainstream average price in the Shandong region is around 830-890 yuan/ton. Downstream demand is still high, and the market follow-up is average. However, due to the relatively concentrated maintenance of chlor alkali enterprises’ equipment in recent times, there is favorable support on the supply side. In the later stage, the supply of caustic soda will decrease, and the industry is optimistic about the future market. Overall, the short-term or upward trend of caustic soda prices depends on downstream market demand.
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