According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of September 3, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 8266 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on August 30 (the average price was reduced by 9233 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 967 yuan / ton, a decrease of 10.47% during the week.

Since late August, the domestic butanone market has been weak as a whole. On the 25th and 26th, the butanone market began to decline in South China due to the restriction of high price transactions.

In this week, the decline of butanone opened in most parts of China on the 30th and 31st of the week, and the price of butanone decreased significantly. The cumulative decline for two consecutive days is referred to as 500-800 yuan / ton. From the middle of the week to the weekend, the decline of butanone price tightened, and the price stability mood of the operators is high, but the downstream demand boost is not obvious. The wait-and-see mood continues, and the market transaction is general, Shandong butanone factory continued to reduce the ex factory price of butanone by 200 yuan / ton. As of September 3, the ex factory price of butanone in Shandong was around 8100-8400 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of butanone in Jiangsu was around 8000-8300 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business society, the average ex factory price of butanone was 8266 yuan / ton as of September 3, down 967 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week, The weekly decline was 10.47%.

Upstream, Shandong civil gas market fluctuated and rose this week, with frequent but limited fluctuations during the week. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 4733.33 yuan / ton on August 29 and 4743.33 yuan / ton on September 3, with an increase of 0.21% during the week and 4.25% compared with the same period last year. This week, the trend of Shandong civil gas market showed a down up down trend. Although the price was adjusted frequently during the week, the range was small, and the overall narrow consolidation was the main trend. At the beginning of the week, that is, at the end of August, due to weak terminal demand, cautious downstream mentality and general enthusiasm for entering the market, the manufacturer’s shipment was not smooth, and the profit was mainly delivered. In the middle of the week, the CP price was introduced in September, and both propylene and butane rose, which gave a certain boost to the market. In addition, the volatile rise of international crude oil brought phased benefits to the civil gas market, the market supply was low, and the downstream market replenished, and the price increased. At the weekend, most of the civil gas market in Shandong maintained stability, and individual manufacturers adjusted according to their own conditions, and fell sporadically.

Future analysis of butanone

This week, the domestic butanone price decreased significantly and the market trading atmosphere was general, but the operators had sufficient confidence in keeping the price, and the downward range continued to be limited in the later stage. Therefore, butanone analysts of business society believe that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mainly maintain a narrow consolidation and operation.

Zinc prices rebounded slightly on September 2

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc price on September 2 was 22620.00 yuan / ton, which rebounded and warmed up compared with the zinc price of 22613.33 yuan / ton on the previous trading day (August 31), an increase of 0.03%. In September, the zinc price fluctuated and adjusted slightly, and the zinc market fluctuated and stabilized.

The discount increase in the spot market is relatively stable

On September 2, Shanghai 0# zinc ingot reported 22430 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton, and Shanghai 1# zinc ingot reported 22360 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton. The quotation of mainstream brands focuses on the next month’s premium of 160-180 yuan, which is 150-170 yuan / ton compared with yesterday’s premium, which is relatively stable. On September 2, Nanchu Foshan 0# zinc ingot (high price) reported 22410 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton, and 1# zinc ingot reported 22340 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton. Premium price (for the next month): the premium is 150 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton, and the premium rises slightly. In the overall market, shippers actively inquired and shipped, the brand circulation was stable, some shipholders were willing to support the price, and the trading atmosphere was general.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business society, believes that the supply and demand fundamentals of zinc city were relatively stable in September, and there was no decisive force to intervene to break the market supply and demand balance in the short term. The zinc city continued to maintain the weak balance between supply and demand, and the zinc price remained in the shock range for adjustment in the future. In the future, attention was paid to power rationing, downstream construction, inventory, import and export, smelting construction, etc.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, mixed xylene rose first and then fell in the first ten days of this month, remained stable in the middle of this month, and fluctuated and fell in the second ten days of this month. On August 1, the price of mixed xylene was 5900 yuan / ton; On August 31, the price was 5730 yuan / ton, down 2.88% from the beginning of the month; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 63.25%.

2、 Analysis and review

At the beginning of the month, the price of mixed xylene increased slightly due to tight supply, but the downstream continued demand was weak and stable, and the rising power of mixed xylene was insufficient. With the broad decline of crude oil, the weak stability of the market was broken, the bearish psychology increased, and the mixed benzene and toluene followed the decline of crude oil. The rebound of crude oil led to a slight recovery of mixed xylene mentality, but the downstream demand shrank again, and the price fell again at the end of the month.

In terms of crude oil, the trend of crude oil fluctuated and rose after falling in August. The market is still concerned about the impact of delta mutation virus on demand recovery. Compared with July 30, Brent fell by US $3.34/barrel, or 4.38%; WTI fell $4.45/barrel, or 7.37%.

In terms of external market, as of August 31, the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was US $770.5/t, down US $42 / T or 5.17% from July 30; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 792 US dollars / ton, down 41 US dollars / ton or 4.92% from July 30.

In the downstream PX market, the domestic PX market stabilized after rising at the beginning of this month. The price at the end of the month was 7300 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.82% over the beginning of the month and 58.7% over the same period last year.

In terms of PTA market, PTA prices in East China fluctuated downward this month. At the end of the month, the price was 4926.36 yuan / ton, down 11.11% from the beginning of the month and up 37.62% from the same period last year.

In terms of ox market, ox in East China stabilized after rising at the beginning of the month and rose again at the end of the month. The price at the end of the month was 6360 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.58% over the beginning of the month and 44.55% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

On the raw material side, the trend of crude oil is full of uncertainty. The spread of delta virus still restricts the recovery of demand, and international oil prices are under short-term pressure. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of crude oil and refined oil in the United States, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

The short-term weak demand side is difficult to change, and mixed xylene is expected to continue the weak trend. In September, pay attention to whether the downstream demand has improved. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external market, maintenance and inventory dynamics of mixed xylene unit and the impact of downstream demand on its price.

Commodity index: on August 31, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 90.12, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up% from the lowest point. It hit a record low in the cycle, down% from the highest point（ Note: period refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

According to the data of business agency, in August, the domestic mainstream price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) was 14380 yuan / ton for 1 daily report and 14750 yuan / ton for 31 daily report, with a monthly increase of 2.57%.

Upstream raw materials: acrylic acid is an important raw material for the production of anionic and non-ionic polyacrylamide, and acrylonitrile is the most important raw material for polyacrylamide.

Acrylic acid:

According to the data monitoring of business society, as shown in the above two figures, the acrylic acid market first rose and then fell in August, and the overall trend rose; As of August 31, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 15266.67 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 5.77%, which was larger than that of polyacrylamide.

Acrylonitrile:

Data monitoring shows that in August, the price decreased first and then increased. In the first half of the month, it has been adjusted for many times and increased by 150-200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation in the market is about 14800 yuan / ton; In the second half of the month, the price increased by 100 yuan / ton on the 25th, and the mainstream quotation was about 14900 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 250-300 yuan / ton.

LNG is used in the production process. On August 31, the average price of domestic LNG was 6076.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 930 yuan compared with 5146.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, an increase of 18.07% in the month and 150.07% compared with the same period last year. The price rise this month is still a commonplace cost rise, the low inventory of liquid plant, the increase of urban fuel replenishment demand and other favorable factors continue to increase, and the price of domestic LNG market continues to rise in the off-season. According to the analysis of the business society, the domestic LNG market fluctuated higher in the off-season in August, and the prices in many places have exceeded the 6000 mark. At present, the favorable factors have not been reduced, and the costs continue to be high. The off-season factors may be difficult to contain the upward trend of liquid prices. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will continue to rise, and it is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the future..

Downstream demand: in July and August, the water treatment industry experienced too much. The weather and epidemic disasters affected the production, raw material supply and shipment to a certain extent, Limited Logistics and transportation, and it was difficult to find one vehicle. The price of some raw materials was high due to shutdown and tight supply; In the second half of this month, Gongyi region suffered another rainstorm disaster, and the local response to the rainstorm disaster was strengthened, but some enterprises also had to stop production and business for a few days. It is reported that the demand improved slightly this month, especially under the influence of Rainstorm in the early stage, the influence of Rainstorm in the later stage gradually subsided, the demand became lighter, and the purchase price returned to normal.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of business society, the rise of raw material cost has a certain impact on polyacrylamide in the first half of August, especially the sharp rise of acrylic acid price. In the second half of the month, the external influence gradually subsided, the price of acrylic acid slightly corrected, acrylonitrile only rose slightly, the downstream demand was stable, and the market had little impact on the market with sufficient spot. When it comes to the future, if the demand in the “golden nine silver ten” traditional consumption peak season will improve to a certain extent, the market will continue to be strong; On the contrary, it is mainly stable.

Commodity index: on August 29, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 95.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.67% from the highest point 109.01 in the cycle (2019-08-28), and up 12.90% from the lowest point 84.32 on August 18, 2020（ Note: period refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

According to the monitoring of business society, the mainstream market of polyaluminium chloride in China showed a steady upward trend in the fourth week of August 2021. On the 23rd, the domestic mainstream price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride was 1741.11 yuan / ton, and on the 29th, the mainstream price was stable at 1761.11 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.15%.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, hydrochloric acid: as can be seen from the above figure, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong this week was temporarily stable, with a quotation of 280.00 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 7.44% compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the recent market of upstream liquid chlorine is general, the cost support is general, the market of downstream ammonium chloride is high, and the downstream purchase intention is not strong. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid is mainly subject to a slight shock in the near future.

LNG is used in the production process. Last week, the domestic LNG market fluctuated and rose. On August 23, the mainstream quotation was 5593.33 yuan / ton to 5703.33 yuan / ton. According to the analysis of business society, at present, the cost is supported, the price is not easy to fall sharply, mainly fluctuates in a narrow range, and the LNG market continues to operate at a high level.

Downstream demand: due to the impact of Rainstorm in the early stage, the logistics transportation is limited, and the downstream demand is blocked. According to the introduction of enterprises in the main production area, the impact is gradually decreasing in the later stage. Except that the price of some raw materials is high due to the tension of shutdown, the road continues to recover. It is reported that at the end of the third week, Gongyi suffered another rainstorm disaster, but the local response to the rainstorm disaster was strengthened. Some areas were shut down for a few days, the degree of disaster was greatly reduced, and the production of local enterprises was not greatly affected. In Shandong and other parts of China, the weather this week has little impact on water treatment enterprises. It is reported that the current demand has not changed significantly, and the purchase price has not changed much.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of business society, in the future, the current market of water treatment industry is greatly affected by the price of raw materials, especially hydrochloric acid and bauxite in some main production areas. When the local high price of raw materials and slightly better downstream demand support polyaluminium chloride well, polyaluminium chloride will continue to rise steadily, otherwise, it will be mainly stable.