price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market quickly rose in March, with most spot prices of various brands showing significant increases. As of March 31st, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16516.67 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of+26.79% compared to the beginning of the month.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: Since March, domestic PC aggregation enterprises have experienced a mutual restart and maintenance. The overall load variation within the interval is relatively narrow, with an average operating rate fluctuating around 87%. The average weekly output at the end of the month is over 70000 tons. Although the load is relatively high, there is still room for supply contraction in the future due to maintenance plans for Cangzhou Dahua and Cohen Chuang in early April. Overall, the supply side’s support for PC is still acceptable.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic bisphenol A market has seen significant growth since early March. Affected by the severe fluctuations in international crude oil, the prices of phenol and acetone fluctuate at the same frequency. Subsequently, it will drive the domestic spot price of bisphenol A. At the same time, the increase in bisphenol A supply during the month is limited. As the end of the month approaches, crude oil continues to rise, and there is still room for bisphenol A to rise in the future market. There is a positive trend in supporting the cost value of PC.
On the demand side: The improvement in profitability of terminal enterprises is limited, and the load position of PC downstream factories is still average. The current PC price has risen to a relatively high level, and buyers are cautious about stocking up. Their willingness to continue building warehouses is not strong, and they have entered a wait-and-see stage. And international crude oil continues to fluctuate, pushing up the petrochemical industry and logistics costs, while driving up the resonance of bulk commodity prices. Although the atmosphere of PC market speculation has cooled down in the early stage, the current mentality of merchants is strong and they are trying to overvalue. Overall, the demand side provides moderate support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
After the domestic PC market rose in March, it sorted out. Affected by the continued geopolitical situation, crude oil and related products in the petrochemical industry chain have fluctuated at high levels, and upstream bisphenol A prices have surged and adjusted, with cost values synchronously transmitted to PC. Domestic PC polymerization plants have large and stable loads with small fluctuations, and the industry will undergo centralized maintenance in the future, with expectations of further tightening of supply. On site trading is mainly driven by basic needs, and buyers have a cautious attitude, taking as they please. At the end of the month, transactions are mainly small orders. It is expected that in the short term, the PC market may be affected by the dual positive effects of remote upstream leading the rise and supply tightening, and there may still be a possibility of stable upward movement.
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