According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 31, 2026, the morning market price of gold spot was 1019.24 yuan/gram, a decrease of 10.97% from the gold spot market price of 1144.88 yuan/gram at the beginning of this month (March 1).
On the 31st, the gold price slightly rebounded within the day. In terms of spot trading:
On March 31, 2026, Shanghai Gold Exchange quoted a benchmark price of 1016.94 yuan/gram for Shanghai Gold (gold ingots with a standard weight of 1 kilogram and a purity of not less than 99.99%; pricing contract) at noon; Compared to the benchmark price of 999.56 yuan/gram in the early trading of the 30th, it has increased by 17.38 yuan/gram (1.74%).
In terms of futures:
The main contract of Shanghai Gold on March 31, 2026, opened at 1023.80 yuan/gram and closed at 1020.10 yuan/gram, up 1.46% from yesterday’s settlement price of 1005.42 yuan/gram.
Reasons for the rebound of precious metal gold on March 31, 2026
On March 31, 2026, the precious metal gold market experienced a significant rebound, with spot gold prices steadily rising, ending the previous phase of correction and becoming an important node for the recent recovery of gold market sentiment. The rebound of gold this time is not driven by a single factor, but the result of the resonance of multiple factors such as macro policy expectations, geopolitical situation evolution, market capital flow, and long-term allocation demand. The core revolves around the safe haven and financial attributes of gold. The specific reasons are analyzed in detail as follows:
1、 The shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations has laid the foundation for a short-term weakening of the US dollar. Since March, the market’s expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy have undergone multiple rounds of adjustment. In the early stage, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East pushed up international oil prices, causing concerns about inflation rebound. The market once raised expectations of interest rate hikes, leading to a downward pressure on gold prices. In late March, there were signs of partial easing in the situation in the Middle East, with international oil prices falling from high levels and marginal easing of upward pressure on inflation. Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates have once again risen. The opportunity cost of holding gold is positively correlated with the level of interest rates, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has reignited, significantly reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and attracting capital to flow back into the gold market. At the same time, the US dollar index experienced a short-term decline after rising on March 30th. Gold usually shows a negative correlation with the US dollar, and the weakening of the US dollar directly enhances the investment attractiveness of gold, becoming the core short-term driving factor for the recovery of gold on that day.
2、 The structural easing of the geopolitical situation has led to an orderly release of safe haven demand. Since March, the Middle East conflict has continued to escalate, and the confrontation between the United States, Israel, and Iran has led to the obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, causing global energy supply shortages and market panic. However, due to the suppression of “inflation rate hike” expectations in the early stage of gold prices, there has been a deviation between safe haven demand and price trends. On March 31st, both sides of the conflict released signals of partial easing, and the market panic sentiment marginally eased, gradually releasing the previously suppressed demand for safe haven; At the same time, there are still concerns in the market about the long-term uncertainty of geopolitical conflicts. Central banks, institutions, and individual investors around the world have allocated gold as the “ultimate safe haven asset”, further supporting the recovery of gold prices and forming a dual support of “short-term sentiment repair+long-term safe haven allocation”.
3、 The central bank continues to make efforts in purchasing gold, providing long-term rigid support. In 2025, the global central bank’s gold purchases will reach a historical peak, and this trend will continue in 2026. China has increased its gold reserves for 16 consecutive months, and emerging economies are accelerating their “de dollarization” process, optimizing their foreign exchange reserve structure and reducing their dependence on US dollar assets by increasing their gold holdings. This global increase in central bank reserves provides long-term “ballast” support for gold prices and enhances the market’s long-term confidence in gold. The rebound of gold on March 31st is a concrete manifestation of the resonance between long-term support and short-term market sentiment. Combined with the significant correction of gold prices in the early stage, institutional bottom fishing funds continued to flow in, further promoting the recovery of gold prices.
4、 The combination of market sentiment repair and capital return. On the week of March 23rd, gold prices experienced their largest weekly decline in 43 years, leading to excessive panic in the market and gradually entering a phase of emotional recovery. On March 25th, the gold price experienced a violent rebound, and the recovery on March 31st is a continuation of this emotional repair. The stampede risk caused by leveraged trading in the early stage gradually subsided, and investment sentiment tended to stabilize. At the same time, the global economy is facing downward pressure from fluctuations in energy prices, and the volatility of traditional assets such as stocks and bonds is intensifying. As a traditional asset that preserves value and resists inflation, gold’s asset allocation value is further highlighted. The demand for allocation from institutional and individual investors has increased, and funds continue to flow into the gold market, providing solid financial support for the recovery of gold prices.
5、 The US dollar credit system is under pressure, strengthening the value of gold allocation. The current total federal debt in the United States has exceeded $39 trillion, the pressure of fiscal deficit continues to increase, the share of US dollar reserves has dropped to a historical low, and the credit foundation of the US dollar is facing challenges. In this context, central banks and investment institutions around the world have reduced their holdings of US dollar assets and turned to gold, a non sovereign credit asset, further increasing the long-term demand for gold. This allocation behavior based on concerns about US dollar credit echoes short-term policy expectations and market sentiment, jointly driving the recovery of the gold market on March 31st.
In summary, the rebound of gold on March 31, 2026 is the result of a combination of short-term policy expectations reversal, market sentiment repair, long-term allocation demand, and geopolitical game. In the short term, gold prices are expected to maintain a recovery trend based on safe haven demand and capital inflows; In the long run, the global trend of central bank gold purchases, changes in US dollar credit, and geopolitical developments will continue to dominate the gold market.
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