1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of bulk commodities, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 19350 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 23333.33 yuan / ton in the middle of the month. The price increased by 20.59% in half a month.

2、 Market analysis

Since July, the price of yellow phosphorus has been in a high consolidation stage. Recently, affected by the power rationing in Yunnan, the price of yellow phosphorus has risen again, the operating rate of yellow phosphorus has declined, and the spot market is tight. The main manufacturers have issued early orders, and some manufacturers have temporarily stopped quoting. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 22000-25000 yuan / ton; The mainstream price in Sichuan is about 24000-25000 yuan / ton; The mainstream price in Guizhou is about 20000-22000 yuan / ton. Due to the rapid rise in prices, the market more wait-and-see, manufacturers send early orders, new orders are limited.

In terms of phosphate rock, in early July, China’s phosphate rock market as a whole was in a high level, and the supply of mines in Guizhou was tight. Phosphate rock manufacturers expected that the price of phosphate rock would continue to move towards the high end. On July 12, Guizhou phosphate rock enterprises took the lead in raising the initial and high-end grade price of phosphate rock by 20-50 yuan / ton. After the adjustment, the reference price of 30% grade in Guizhou is 490-510 yuan / ton, and that of 28% grade in Guizhou is 440-470 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of 30% grade phosphate rock is 550 yuan / ton, Compared with the previous working day, the one-day increase was 3.77%. At present, the spot supply of phosphorus ore market is still tight, some mining enterprises in Guizhou are in a state of shortage, and the overall market quotation is high and firm. As of July 12, the price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore ship plate in Hubei area is about 510-530 yuan / ton. Compared with early July, the market price of phosphorus ore in Guangxi has also been increased by 20-30 yuan / ton. At present, the quotation of 28% grade phosphate rock factory in Guangxi is around 430-470 yuan / ton, and that of 30% grade phosphate rock factory is around 470-510 yuan / ton. The overall phosphorus ore market is running at a high level.

In terms of coke, the coke market as a whole is weak, the expected scope of production limit of downstream steel plants is expanded, the purchasing enthusiasm is reduced, the coke supply is gradually relaxed, and the price mentality is strong. As of July 14, the mainstream price of Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) was 2950 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the previous trading day and flat compared with the same period last month.

Phosphoric acid and phosphate markets are mainly cautious and wait-and-see, phosphoric acid market rises sporadically, with good trading volume, and actual transaction is mainly through negotiation. Glyphosate was acceptable to high valence yellow phosphorus, and played a supporting role to high valence yellow phosphorus.

3、 Future forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from chemical branch of business society believe that the price of yellow phosphorus has gone up sharply at present. In Yunnan Province, power rationing, yellow phosphorus production reduction, spot yellow phosphorus market is basically out of stock, yellow phosphorus Market tension intensified. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will continue to rise in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of July 14, the average factory price reference of domestic butanone market was 9133 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on July 1 (reference price of butanone was 8100 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 1033 yuan / ton, or 12.76%.

Since the beginning of July, butanone factories in Shandong and Lanzhou have entered the period of maintenance. The domestic butanone market in East China is short of spot supply, and the supply pressure is low in the inventory area. The downstream is purchased on demand. The overall trading atmosphere is good, the confidence of the industry is increasing, and the industry is reluctant to sell. Therefore, the market price of butanone keeps rising in early July, As of July 14, the quotation of butanone market in Shandong area was high and firm, and the factory quotation of Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Company was 9200 yuan / ton. The market of butanone in Jiangsu is stable, and the factory reference price of butanone is about 9000-9200 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, on July 14, the average factory price of domestic butanone market was 9133 yuan / ton, up nearly 13% compared with the price at the beginning of the month.

On July 14, the civil LPG market in North China was generally stable, with a slight rise in some cases. The downstream just needed to enter the market, with general enthusiasm. The civil LPG market in Northeast China continued to be stable, with little change. The market transaction atmosphere was general. The mainstream price of civil gas was 4050-4250 yuan / ton. The civil LPG market in Shandong Province was generally stable, with an increase in some cases, The atmosphere of market transaction is mild. The manufacturer’s shipment is moderate. The reference price of civil gas in Dongying area is 4350-4430 yuan / ton, and the price is expected to be stable tomorrow.

Future market analysis of butanone

At present, after butanone rose to a high level, the downstream orders decreased, and the purchase of butanone just at the beginning of this month was gradually ended. Therefore, butanone analysts of business community believe that in the short term, the market price of butanone will continue to rise weakly, and most of them will be consolidated at a high level.

The recent trend of isooctanol price

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream factory quotation of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose from 15700.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 15833.33 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 0.85%, up 112.05% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the market of isooctanol rose slightly this week, with the isooctanol commodity index of 116.42 on July 9.

Downstream demand rose, isooctanol rose again

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory quotation of Shandong mainstream ISO octanol manufacturers this week increased: Jianlan Chemical Co., Ltd. has not quoted isooctanol this week; Lihuayi offered 16100 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, which was up 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualuhengsheng offered 16200 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, which was up 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the raw material market in the upstream of isooctanol fell slightly this week, with the quotation falling from 7804.91 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7796.73 yuan / ton at the weekend, down 0.10%, up 13.13% compared with the same period last year. The price of upstream raw materials market is high consolidation, which has a positive effect on the price of isooctanol due to the influence of supply and demand.

The downstream market of isooctanol, DOP factory prices rose slightly this week. DOP quotation rose from 13400.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 13550.00 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 1.12%, up 86.47% compared with the same period last year. The downstream DOP price increased slightly, the downstream customers’ enthusiasm for octanol procurement increased, and the demand for isooctanol was strengthened.

Demand is increasing and the market is bullish

In mid July, Shandong isooctanol market trend or a small fluctuation rose. Overall, the recent start-up of isooctanol units has led to an increase in the overall operating rate of the industry, sufficient spot supply of isooctanol, better downstream market and stronger demand. Therefore, analysts of isooctanol of business agency believe that the domestic market of isooctanol will rise slightly in mid July.

1、 Price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of diethylene glycol product)

According to the data of business news agency, on July 9, the average p value of diethylene glycol market price was 6066 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton from last Friday, down 0.16%.

On Tuesday, the price range of glycol fluctuated, Sinopec’s ex factory quotation in East China was temporarily stable, and Sinopec’s ex factory quotation in South China was increased by 100 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of July 8, the total inventory of diethylene glycol in East China’s main ports was 20000 tons, an increase of 0900 tons or 4.71% over last Wednesday. The total amount of diethylene glycol delivered in Zhangjiagang mainstream reservoir area was 1350 tons, 498 tons lower than the previous working day.

Sinopec’s South China unit runs smoothly. At present, the production line of diethylene glycol of PetroChina northeast Jilin Petrochemical Company is shut down for maintenance, and it is expected to restart in late July. It is mainly supplied to users in Northeast China, most of them are produced and used by themselves, and the export volume is small.

3、 Analysis and forecast

The downstream trading atmosphere is general, production and sales are light, and the inventory of products has not been effectively reduced. On the supply side of the market, the import volume and domestic volume of the terminal increased slowly, the daily delivery volume of the terminal decreased, and the inventory picked up slightly. The overall performance of the market demand side is weak. It is expected that the short-term diethylene glycol market will continue to run in a narrow range.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the PP market fluctuated and went down in early July, and the spot prices of various brands fell on the whole. As of July 9, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8516.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.97% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 5.58% compared with the same period last year.

Cause analysis

PP upstream propylene domestic (Shandong) market fell slightly in early July, with an average price of 7796 yuan / ton on the 9th, down 0.1% in the week. The recent propylene market performance is tepid, the price change is not big, individual manufacturers price adjustment. By the end of this week, the mainstream quotation in the domestic market was 7700-7800 yuan / ton, and the downstream purchased on demand. The market transaction was fair and the price was firm. Propylene analysts from chemical branch of business society think: long short game, uncertainty of crude oil market, pay close attention to the future market changes. If the cost side does not fluctuate significantly, and the downstream demand supports, propylene is expected to fluctuate upward in the near future.

Upstream propylene market narrow decline, PP cost side support slightly weakened. At present, the average operating rate of the industry has increased compared with the end of last month, and the market supply shows an increasing trend. At the same time, domestic drawing PP inventory also increased, two barrels of oil PP increased by more than 14% compared with last week. In terms of demand, the operating rate of terminal enterprises has decreased, the purchasing operation just needs to be followed up, and the actual orders are mostly low turnover. Part of the sellers make profit to ship, but there is support from the price rise of PP outside the market, and the sellers’ willingness to make profit is limited on the whole.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of July 9, the mainstream offer of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) was similar to that of wire drawing materials, with a price of about 8583.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.53% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 8.19% compared with the same period last year. At present, the demand of fiber PP is not large, and the profit of downstream enterprises is general. The consumption of diapers and other products in the domestic market has gradually returned to a stable level, and the manufacturers of spunbonded non-woven fabrics and Spunlaced non-woven fabrics in the direct downstream tend to follow up passively and take whatever they use. At the end of this week, domestic fiber PP production accounted for more than 11%, up from the previous.

Meltblown materials, meltblown PP market continued weak market in early July, spot prices softened. As of July 9, the average quotation of domestic pph-y1500 sample enterprises monitored by business society was about 9600 yuan / ton. The saturation of domestic melt blown fabric manufacturing market is high. In the medium term, the situation of melt blown PP production enterprises leaving the market is more prominent. At present, there are few devices that are still shipping. At present, the domestic epidemic situation is generally stable, and the situation of saturated demand for medical protective equipment is relatively stable. In terms of overseas epidemic situation, the epidemic situation in some neighboring countries in Asia Pacific region of China is deep and long-term, forming a certain epidemic prevention pressure on neighboring countries and regions. During this period, the demand of overseas epidemic prevention market for oxygen generator and other equipment related products increased, and the pulling effect on melt blown PP industry was not obvious. The demand for meltblown materials is difficult to expand, and it is expected that the price will continue to be weak.

Future forecast

Business community PP analysts believe that: in early July, the domestic polypropylene market overall narrow weakening. The operation rate of downstream enterprises is not high and the demand is short. Weak purchasing follow-up and poor response to high price supply. The upstream raw material propylene also fell slightly, and the support of PP cost side was not weakened. Polymerization plants and businesses are still willing to support the price. It is expected that PP price will fluctuate in the short term.