1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring data of bulk commodities, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 19350 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 23333.33 yuan / ton in the middle of the month. The price increased by 20.59% in half a month.
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2、 Market analysis
Since July, the price of yellow phosphorus has been in a high consolidation stage. Recently, affected by the power rationing in Yunnan, the price of yellow phosphorus has risen again, the operating rate of yellow phosphorus has declined, and the spot market is tight. The main manufacturers have issued early orders, and some manufacturers have temporarily stopped quoting. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 22000-25000 yuan / ton; The mainstream price in Sichuan is about 24000-25000 yuan / ton; The mainstream price in Guizhou is about 20000-22000 yuan / ton. Due to the rapid rise in prices, the market more wait-and-see, manufacturers send early orders, new orders are limited.
In terms of phosphate rock, in early July, China’s phosphate rock market as a whole was in a high level, and the supply of mines in Guizhou was tight. Phosphate rock manufacturers expected that the price of phosphate rock would continue to move towards the high end. On July 12, Guizhou phosphate rock enterprises took the lead in raising the initial and high-end grade price of phosphate rock by 20-50 yuan / ton. After the adjustment, the reference price of 30% grade in Guizhou is 490-510 yuan / ton, and that of 28% grade in Guizhou is 440-470 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of 30% grade phosphate rock is 550 yuan / ton, Compared with the previous working day, the one-day increase was 3.77%. At present, the spot supply of phosphorus ore market is still tight, some mining enterprises in Guizhou are in a state of shortage, and the overall market quotation is high and firm. As of July 12, the price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore ship plate in Hubei area is about 510-530 yuan / ton. Compared with early July, the market price of phosphorus ore in Guangxi has also been increased by 20-30 yuan / ton. At present, the quotation of 28% grade phosphate rock factory in Guangxi is around 430-470 yuan / ton, and that of 30% grade phosphate rock factory is around 470-510 yuan / ton. The overall phosphorus ore market is running at a high level.
In terms of coke, the coke market as a whole is weak, the expected scope of production limit of downstream steel plants is expanded, the purchasing enthusiasm is reduced, the coke supply is gradually relaxed, and the price mentality is strong. As of July 14, the mainstream price of Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) was 2950 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the previous trading day and flat compared with the same period last month.
Phosphoric acid and phosphate markets are mainly cautious and wait-and-see, phosphoric acid market rises sporadically, with good trading volume, and actual transaction is mainly through negotiation. Glyphosate was acceptable to high valence yellow phosphorus, and played a supporting role to high valence yellow phosphorus.
3、 Future forecast
Yellow phosphorus analysts from chemical branch of business society believe that the price of yellow phosphorus has gone up sharply at present. In Yunnan Province, power rationing, yellow phosphorus production reduction, spot yellow phosphorus market is basically out of stock, yellow phosphorus Market tension intensified. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will continue to rise in the short term.
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