According to the data monitored by the business community, the domestic PP market was mainly consolidated in early February, and the spot prices of various brands were mixed. As of February 9, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) was about 8450 yuan / ton, up 0.40% from the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

PP upstream propylene, propylene prices began to decline at the end of last year, after the negative market began to change. At the end of last month, propylene prices fell rapidly again due to manufacturers’ heavy inventory pressure and poor delivery. At present, the crude oil price is good, the market is long and short mixed, the domestic propylene market lacks guidance direction, and the confidence in the market is insufficient. Future or shock consolidation based, do not rule out the possibility of a small increase.

The current propylene market is hard to say positive, PP cost side support is general. In January, Shijiazhuang closed petrochemical plants and downstream plants due to the epidemic situation. Meanwhile, logistics was also greatly affected, which had a negative impact on PP market. In February, it is reported that the inventory accumulation of the two oil and petrochemical companies is expected to start gradually before the festival. Downstream, due to the completion of stock preparation before the festival, the inventory position of plastic weaving and BOPP factories is relatively high. The stagflation adjustment of injection molding and wire drawing is also highly related to short-term oversupply, and new orders are mostly delivered after the festival. It is speculated that the mentality of downstream industry tends to wait-and-see and buy at bargain hunting after the festival. The external market remains firm, but due to transportation and other reasons affecting the import inflow, the impact on the domestic PP market may not be timely, and the medium and long term is still positive.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of February 9, the mainstream offer of Z30S (fiber) by domestic producers and traders had fallen slightly compared with the beginning of the month, with the price of about 8516.67 yuan / ton, a 1.16% drop compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. In terms of inventory, since the new year’s day, the inventory position of fiber PP production enterprises began to rise. In addition, the logistics and transportation were affected by holidays, the domestic fiber materials began to accumulate gradually, and the supply of goods was sufficient. In terms of operation rate, the number of maintenance units of domestic PP plants is decreasing, and affected by the increase of downstream orders, the general operation level is not low. Material PP fiber material after the festival or due to pre inventory and stagflation shock.

In early February, the trend of PP meltblown material continued to rise before, and the current meltblown PP price slightly recovered. As of February 9, the average quotation of pph-y1500 sample enterprises monitored by business society was 10866.67 yuan / ton. The overseas epidemic situation is complex. The rise at the end of last month was caused by the implementation of masks in some countries, resulting in large demand and the increase of domestic orders, which pushed up the price of meltblown materials. At present, the domestic epidemic prevention situation is generally stable except for a small-scale rebound in some areas, and the domestic supplies of masks and other epidemic prevention materials are abundant. The surplus of suppliers in the melt blown fabric manufacturing market has not improved, and the improvement of profit is limited. At the same time, the domestic melt blown PP is also affected by the Spring Festival holiday, and the logistics and production scheduling are mostly delayed. It is expected that the price trend of melt blown PP will be stable.

Future forecast

Business community PP analysts believe that: in early February domestic PP spot market consolidation. Upstream propylene market finishing operation, general support for PP cost side. About to enter the Spring Festival holiday, PP brand inventory has an upward trend, market stability is weak, market mentality is not strong. On the demand side, the downstream just needs to buy, and the enthusiasm is general. It is expected that the market of PP after the festival will be weak due to the bad effect of fundamentals.

From February 1, 2021 to February 5, 2021, the crude benzene market price was mainly downward, and the domestic ex factory price was 2976.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3317 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly rise of 11.45%.

On February 4, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan / ton compared with the previous day, and 5150 yuan / ton was implemented after the adjustment. Among them, Qilu Petrochemical Company implemented 4950 yuan / ton. It’s only five days since the last price adjustment on January 30, with a continuous rise of 350 yuan / ton within five days.

Driven by the sharp rise in the price of pure benzene, a product related to the industrial chain, the price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong rose sharply for two consecutive days from Wednesday, with a cumulative increase of 950 yuan / ton. On Thursday, the mainstream coking enterprises in Shandong increased the bidding price of crude benzene by 450 yuan / ton. In recent years, the profit of coking enterprises is high, the price of coke has reached the highest point in nearly 10 years, the enterprises are actively starting, and the crude benzene supply is sufficient. As a substitute for pure benzene, the trend of downstream hydrogenated benzene is basically consistent with that of pure benzene. Driven by the market price and the improvement of purchasing enthusiasm in East China, the market of hydrogenated benzene has been rising all the way. Although the price in Shandong rose late, it rose a lot. The profit of hydrogenated benzene rebounded, the recent start-up was good, and the demand for crude benzene was well supported.

The recent start-up of hydrobenzene unit is good, and some enterprises that reduced the load in the early stage started to improve this week. However, there are still some enterprises that shut down last year that have not started yet.

The business association thinks that the sharp rise of pure benzene this time is mainly due to the release of good news from the supply side, which caused the centralized purchase in the market in a short period of time, leading the concentrated rise of market price. However, this time, the rise is relatively large and the time is relatively concentrated, and some of the post Festival gains have been digested in advance. When the stock tide is over, the price will gradually return to rationality.

abstract

1。 Market review: in January, the price of raw coal in the upstream rose and fell, the cost side support weakened, and the epidemic prevention and control intensified in various places, resulting in the shortage of methanol logistics and the increase of freight. In addition, there was pressure to drain the warehouse before the Spring Festival holiday, and the methanol price in the main production areas gradually decreased. Under this influence, the main contract ma2105 of methanol futures also fluctuated downward.

2。 Price influencing factors: the overall supply of methanol increased in January, and the supply pressure will increase in the later period. However, it should be noted that the profit of methanol production unit will decline again. At the same time, with the arrival of the Spring Festival, some factories in the downstream areas of methanol will have a holiday ahead of schedule, and the resumption of work after the festival will also face uncertainty, and the demand will weaken. In addition, due to the impact of the Spring Festival and the epidemic situation, some enterprises in the main production areas took the initiative to go to the warehouse, and the inventory of methanol enterprises showed a low operating situation, and the import pressure decreased due to the expansion of the internal and external price difference. It is estimated that the port inventory will continue to go to the warehouse.

3。 Market outlook: on the whole, it is expected that the supply and demand will be weak in February, and the methanol market may continue to be weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the recovery progress of logistics and downstream demand after the festival. In terms of operation, it is suggested to deal with the interval shock, and the uncertainty is large after the festival, so it is better to light the warehouse for the festival.

One. Market Review

In January, the price of raw coal in the upstream rose and fell, the cost side support weakened, and the epidemic prevention and control intensified in various places, which led to the shortage of methanol logistics and the increase of freight. In addition, there was the pressure of warehouse discharge before the Spring Festival holiday, and the methanol price in the main production areas gradually decreased. Under this influence, the main contract ma2105 of methanol futures also fell. Due to the continuous reduction of inventory, the basis presents a backwardation structure, and the futures discount. In addition, due to the fact that some countries in the Middle East are still parking, the price difference between domestic and foreign equipment has been widened.

Two. Price factors

1。 Supply pressure is high, but profit declines again

In January, the methanol plant ran smoothly. As of January 29, the average start-up load of domestic methanol plant was 70.13%, down 1.08% from December. As the increase of domestic production in January was greater than the decrease of methanol import in December, the overall supply increased in January. However, the manufacturers’ strong willingness to discharge inventory led to the low inventory in the year. However, as the weather warms up, some of the methanol plants that have been shut down or overhauled may resume operation. This month, the new methanol production capacity is about 3.6 million tons. The market also has expectations for the later production. If there is no maintenance plan for the existing operating plants in the later period, the supply pressure of methanol in the later period will increase. However, it should be noted that the profit of methanol production unit is declining again.

2。 Low level operation of inventory and continuous de inventory

Affected by the Spring Festival and the epidemic situation, some enterprises in the main production areas took the initiative to go to the warehouse, and some new olefins were purchased stably, which led to the overall circulation of goods relatively stable. In January, the inventory of methanol enterprises showed a low operating situation, and the port also decreased due to the centralized delivery of goods downstream. For the coming February, the number of ships arriving in China from other regions of the Middle East will be significantly reduced, and the import pressure will be reduced due to the expansion of the internal and external price gap. It is estimated that the methanol import volume will be reduced to 810000-830000 tons in February, and the port inventory will continue to be depleted.

3。 Near the Spring Festival, downstream demand is weakening

With the arrival of the Spring Festival, some factories in the lower reaches of methanol have holidays ahead of schedule, and the demand for methanol is weakening. In addition, under the influence of the continuous weakening of methanol futures price, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the downstream, which is dominated by rigid demand procurement. In terms of downstream operation rate, there were mixed ups and downs in January. The traditional downstream operation rate of methanol declined as a whole. Although the consumption of methanol increased slightly this month, it is expected that the consumption of methanol will still fall in February.

As the main emerging downstream product of methanol, olefin, its operation rate rose and fell in January, with little change. In terms of unit operation, Ningbo Fude resumed operation at the end of the month, and Qinghai Salt Lake unit is scheduled to restart on February 8. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the upgrading of the national “plastic restriction order”. The olefin demand side may be affected, and it is expected that the olefin profit will not be greatly improved in the short term. Therefore, the possibility of sudden shutdown of the unit for maintenance cannot be ruled out.

Three. Prospects and suggestions

During the Spring Festival holiday in February, there is an early holiday in some downstream areas before the festival, and affected by public health events, the recovery time of terminal demand after the Spring Festival is uncertain, and the pre-sale situation in coastal areas is not optimistic. However, from February to March, foreign overhaul units are still relatively concentrated, but new units are still put into production in China in the first quarter, and it is expected that the internal and external supply differentiation will be serious. On the whole, the supply and demand are weak. The methanol market may continue to be weak in February. We need to pay attention to the progress of logistics and downstream demand recovery after the festival.

In terms of operation, it is suggested to deal with the interval shock, and the uncertainty is large after the festival, so it is better to light the warehouse for the festival.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of February 3, the quotation of pet water bottle manufacturers was 6066.67 yuan / ton, and the market price of PET bottle chips rose by 9.64% compared with the same period last month. Now the price range of mainstream manufacturers is around 6100-6200 yuan / ton. Near the Spring Festival, most manufacturers are on vacation, with insufficient operating rate, flat downstream demand and stable stock mentality.

The domestic PET bottle chip market negotiation center is relatively high, and the price has increased, with an increase of 100-200 yuan / ton. The downstream just needs to purchase, and the willingness to stock is not strong. The upstream dual raw materials present an upward trend, which still has support for pet cost. In the short term, the PET bottle chip market is relatively strong.

PTA in the upstream is running strongly, the market operation rate is stable, the rising trend of ethylene glycol is steady, the focus of discussion is on the high side, and the polyester bottle chip market has formed a good support.

On February 2, the rubber and plastic index was 720 points, up 3 points from yesterday, down 32.08% from 1060 points (2012-03-14), the highest point in the cycle, and up 36.36% from 528 points, the lowest point on April 6, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business community pet analysts believe that: in the short term, the pet market remains strong. (the above prices are provided by major pet manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by business pet analysts. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more details.)

From the trend chart, it can be seen that the domestic price of Dy 2.31 million yuan / ton, Dy 2.29 million yuan / ton, Dy 2.775 million yuan / ton, and TB 2.825 million yuan / ton in the domestic market.

There are several reasons for the sharp rise of domestic heavy rare earth market prices. First, Myanmar’s political situation is turbulent, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products. The import source has decreased significantly. The sharp contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic heavy rare earth market has led to a sharp rise in the price of heavy rare earth. Second, the domestic rare earth purchase and storage plan is a good support for domestic heavy rare earth prices. In the purchase and storage plan, medium and heavy rare earth accounts for a large proportion of annual output, which is expected to have a greater impact on the supply, demand and price of medium and heavy rare earth. Third, in recent years, the downstream demand has been rising, the application of new energy has been growing rapidly, and the demand for permanent magnet has increased significantly, which has brought the greatest positive support to the heavy rare earth market. The price of heavy rare earth market has been rising continuously. Due to the tight supply of terbium market and the imbalance between supply and demand, the price of terbium market has reached a high level.

According to the monitoring of the business society, the price index of the domestic rare earth market rose. According to the rare earth plate index of the business society, the rare earth index on February 1 was 473 points, which was the same as yesterday. Compared with the highest 1000 points in the cycle (2011-12-06), it decreased by 52.70%, and increased by 74.54% compared with the lowest 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The domestic rare earth index began to rise in November 2020. In the past three months, the rare earth index of business community has risen by about 100 points, and the price trend of domestic light rare earth market can not be ignored. Domestic sales of new energy vehicles have increased, and terminal industries such as wind power and electronic products have developed rapidly. As the epidemic situation slows down, the capacity utilization rate of downstream manufacturers continues, and demand is mainly based on demand procurement. The demand for NdFeB is still high. The high prosperity of new energy vehicles and consumer electronics industry also promotes the rise of rare earth prices. According to the data, the global demand for high-performance NdFeB is mainly concentrated in the automotive sector (nearly 40% for traditional vehicles and 12% for new energy vehicles), while the rest, such as wind power, consumer electronics, variable frequency air conditioning and energy-saving electrical appliances, account for 8% – 10%. Downstream demand rose, and domestic light rare earth market prices continued to rise. Recently, the price of terbium Series in domestic heavy rare earth market has reached a 10-year high, and the price of its own series continues to rise.

On January 15, 2021, the Ministry of industry and information technology openly solicited opinions on the rare earth management regulations (Draft), releasing the signal of standardizing the management of the rare earth industry and promoting the high-quality development of the industry. There are 29 pieces in the draft, which clarify the division of responsibilities of rare earth management, the approval system of rare earth mining and smelting separation investment projects, and the total amount index management system. It also emphasizes strengthening the management of the whole industry chain of rare earth, strengthening supervision and management. The state has made corresponding adjustments to the development of rare earth industry. The rare earth industry is developing towards high quality, and the policies are favorable to support the development of rare earth industry The local market price rose sharply.

With the continuous volume of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, the demand for rare earth will continue to increase, which is expected to drive the further growth of demand. The global supply gap of rare earth is expected to continue to expand, the domestic demand for rare earth will remain high, the domestic supply of rare earth is still tight, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the rare earth market is sharp. Business analysts expect the price of rare earth market in the later period Or will continue to rise.