According to the data monitored by the business community, the domestic PP market was mainly consolidated in early February, and the spot prices of various brands were mixed. As of February 9, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) was about 8450 yuan / ton, up 0.40% from the average price at the beginning of the month.
Cause analysis
PP upstream propylene, propylene prices began to decline at the end of last year, after the negative market began to change. At the end of last month, propylene prices fell rapidly again due to manufacturers’ heavy inventory pressure and poor delivery. At present, the crude oil price is good, the market is long and short mixed, the domestic propylene market lacks guidance direction, and the confidence in the market is insufficient. Future or shock consolidation based, do not rule out the possibility of a small increase.
The current propylene market is hard to say positive, PP cost side support is general. In January, Shijiazhuang closed petrochemical plants and downstream plants due to the epidemic situation. Meanwhile, logistics was also greatly affected, which had a negative impact on PP market. In February, it is reported that the inventory accumulation of the two oil and petrochemical companies is expected to start gradually before the festival. Downstream, due to the completion of stock preparation before the festival, the inventory position of plastic weaving and BOPP factories is relatively high. The stagflation adjustment of injection molding and wire drawing is also highly related to short-term oversupply, and new orders are mostly delivered after the festival. It is speculated that the mentality of downstream industry tends to wait-and-see and buy at bargain hunting after the festival. The external market remains firm, but due to transportation and other reasons affecting the import inflow, the impact on the domestic PP market may not be timely, and the medium and long term is still positive.
According to the data monitored by the business community, as of February 9, the mainstream offer of Z30S (fiber) by domestic producers and traders had fallen slightly compared with the beginning of the month, with the price of about 8516.67 yuan / ton, a 1.16% drop compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. In terms of inventory, since the new year’s day, the inventory position of fiber PP production enterprises began to rise. In addition, the logistics and transportation were affected by holidays, the domestic fiber materials began to accumulate gradually, and the supply of goods was sufficient. In terms of operation rate, the number of maintenance units of domestic PP plants is decreasing, and affected by the increase of downstream orders, the general operation level is not low. Material PP fiber material after the festival or due to pre inventory and stagflation shock.
In early February, the trend of PP meltblown material continued to rise before, and the current meltblown PP price slightly recovered. As of February 9, the average quotation of pph-y1500 sample enterprises monitored by business society was 10866.67 yuan / ton. The overseas epidemic situation is complex. The rise at the end of last month was caused by the implementation of masks in some countries, resulting in large demand and the increase of domestic orders, which pushed up the price of meltblown materials. At present, the domestic epidemic prevention situation is generally stable except for a small-scale rebound in some areas, and the domestic supplies of masks and other epidemic prevention materials are abundant. The surplus of suppliers in the melt blown fabric manufacturing market has not improved, and the improvement of profit is limited. At the same time, the domestic melt blown PP is also affected by the Spring Festival holiday, and the logistics and production scheduling are mostly delayed. It is expected that the price trend of melt blown PP will be stable.
Future forecast
Business community PP analysts believe that: in early February domestic PP spot market consolidation. Upstream propylene market finishing operation, general support for PP cost side. About to enter the Spring Festival holiday, PP brand inventory has an upward trend, market stability is weak, market mentality is not strong. On the demand side, the downstream just needs to buy, and the enthusiasm is general. It is expected that the market of PP after the festival will be weak due to the bad effect of fundamentals.
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