1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, affected by the continuous high price of liquid chlorine for raw materials, the market of chloroform in Shandong has risen sharply. As of November 4, the average price of chloroform in Shandong was about 2300 yuan / ton, up 15% compared with the beginning of the month and 21.05% higher than the same period of last month.

Production capacity and operation of the enterprise

Jinling, Shandong Province: 440000 tons / year, 50%

Dongying Jinmao 120000 tons / year parking

Luxi Chemical Industry: 400000 tons / year: 50%

Jiangsu Liwen 160000 tons / year normal

Jiangxi Liwen: 120000 tons / year: 50%

In recent years, the domestic chloroform market continued to rise, mainly due to the rising price of raw material liquid chlorine. At present, the production cost of chloroform enterprises in Shandong is under pressure, and the overall demand of downstream market is flat, so the enterprises are forced to reduce the operating load, and the overall operation of the industry is less than 60%. As the inventory of enterprises is in the acceptable range, the intention of raising prices is good. At present, the quotation of Shandong Province is about 2300 yuan / ton, that of Jiangxi Liwen is about 2350 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu Province is about 2650 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic methanol market has been adjusted in a volatile way, with the current price of about 1902 yuan / ton. Some manufacturers continue to increase the ex factory quotation. Driven by the current futures, the international crude oil price rebounds, the equipment maintenance of production enterprises, low inventory, and the recovery of downstream demand and other factors are favorable. The favorable factors will remain in a short time, and traders are full of bullish mentality. Recently, the liquid chlorine market continues to rise, and the supply in Shandong is tight due to the impact of enterprise maintenance The price of liquid chlorine is high and firm, and the surrounding market is following the trend. At present, the mainstream quotation in the industry is about 1800-2000 yuan / ton.

In the downstream market, the market of refrigerants is running weakly and steadily, and the price is falling steadily. Downstream major air-conditioning manufacturers started low, the demand was scarce, the demand for foaming agent decreased, and the orders were not many, so the demand side was difficult to boost the market. The hydrofluoric acid industry in the raw material surface was stable, and there was no good signal. Although the quota decreased at the end of the year, the market was back to the buyer’s leading position, and the short-term market was still weak; the pharmaceutical and agricultural solvent industry started flat, and there was insufficient support for chloroform.

According to the methane chloride data of the business society, the domestic chloroform market is running stably for the time being. Enterprises are not starting high. The overall supply and demand of the industry are weak. The downstream market is mainly wait-and-see. In the future, we need to pay attention to the raw material market. It is expected that the price of chloroform will remain stable in a short period of time.

Price trend:

According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic ABS market was active in October, and most of the spot prices in the market showed a strong trend. As of November 1, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 17500.00 yuan / ton, which was 17.06% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

ABS upstream styrene, domestic Styrene Market in October, the whole month positive rise. In terms of inventory, total inventory in East China was 237300 tons at the end of October, down 2.14% on a weekly basis. The domestic operating rate was about 85.51%, maintaining a high level. In addition to the tight spot supply in South China, the styrene supply in other regions was moderate. In the next month, supply is still expected to be tight, the demand is high and stable, and the market mentality is strong. At the end of the month, crude oil fell sharply, and styrene cost support collapsed. Pure benzene inventory high, at the same time the demand decreases, the price rise lacks sufficient support. External news negative chemical industry chain, coupled with the Asian Styrene Market Trading atmosphere is weak, drag styrene up. However, on the whole, the arrival of imported goods in the later period is relatively small, the wharf continues to reduce the warehouse, the domestic supply is tightening, and the downstream keeps operating at high load, and the demand for styrene is strong. It is expected that styrene will be mainly concentrated in the near future.

ABS upstream acrylonitrile, due to the sharp weakening of raw material propylene price in October, acrylonitrile market sentiment was hit. Far upstream of crude oil, Libya production and transportation recovery, supply has a large volume. In addition, the market was worried about the rebound of the epidemic situation, which inhibited the demand. The overall trend of international oil price in October was not good, and the cost side support of acrylonitrile was not ideal. However, the operating rate of downstream acrylic fiber and other industries remained at a high level after the festival, which had a certain basis for acrylonitrile consumption. On the supply side, it is reported that some acrylonitrile production lines have maintenance plans in October, which is good for spot prices. It is expected that acrylonitrile will be stronger in the near future, but the price increase will be limited.

In October, the domestic butadiene market continued to rise, and the main manufacturers continued to raise their ex factory quotations, and the butadiene market quotation in some regions exceeded 10000 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of October 31, 2020, the average ex factory price of butadiene in China was 9200 yuan / ton, an increase of 45.14% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and the price reached a new high point in the year. Affected by the higher profits of natural rubber futures, the price of synthetic rubber in the downstream of butadiene rose significantly. In the second half of 2020, the demand for rubber will recover strongly. The downstream tire industry and rubber products industry of synthetic rubber will start to recover gradually, and the output will gradually rise. The demand for synthetic rubber will form a support, and the whole industrial chain will be favorable for linkage. At present, the sentiment of butadiene market is slowly digesting and gradually transiting to a stable finishing state. The external price continued to rise at a high level, while the domestic market was weak. The natural rubber futures strengthened, and the upstream and downstream products continued to rise strongly. The butadiene analysts of the business association predicted that the domestic butadiene market would be mainly sorted out at a high level in the short term.

In October, the domestic ABS market was strong and the spot price continued to rise. In terms of supply, domestic ABS supply is generally tight, and the pattern remains unchanged. It is reported that the arrival volume in South China is relatively large, which has a negative impact on the profit margin, but there is a large gap in terminal demand at present. Domestic major household appliance enterprises, automobile industry and other consumption remained high, aggravating the market supply tension. Although the lower reaches are resistant to high price goods, the demand side is stable and has the potential to extend the traditional peak season of “silver ten”.

Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe: ABS market remained positive in October, prices of various brands continued to rise. On the cost side, the trend of the upstream three materials in October is generally strong, and the cost side has strong support for ABS. At present, ABS spot supply is still tight, the downstream demand is strong, and the trading is stable. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will continue to be better in the near future.

Trade name: sulfuric acid

Latest price (November 2): 397.50 yuan / ton

On November 2, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong was temporarily stable, which was in line with the quotation on October 30. Although the upstream sulfur market has risen slightly recently and the cost support is good, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general and the sulfuric acid supply is normal.

Recently, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly, and the quotation is about 400 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the domestic soda ash market has stabilized temporarily this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week in East China was 1866.67 yuan / ton, up 5.07% over the same period last year. On October 29, the commodity index of light soda ash was 95.73, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 18.78% from the highest point of 117.86 point (2017-11-21), and increased by 51.59% compared with the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, the domestic soda ash market is temporarily stable, the market atmosphere is light, and downstream manufacturers are cautious and wait-and-see attitude. The price of soda ash in Shandong is stable for the time being, and the mainstream light caustic soda is quoted at 1850-1950 yuan / T. the market atmosphere is fair, and the downstream manufacturers are cautious. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be stable in the short term. For the price of soda ash in Central China, the mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1650-1750 yuan / ton, and the market atmosphere is OK. However, the overall downstream manufacturers are cautious, and it is expected that the price of soda ash will be stabilized in the short term.

Raw materials: domestic crude salt trading atmosphere is good this week, and prices in some regions are stable and rising. The operation of sea salt is stable, the well and mineral salt areas perform well, and the price rises. The performance of lake salt is not good, the downstream purchasing intention is not good, and the market performance is weak.

Demand: with the change of weather in northern China, the pace of rush work is still accelerating, which also increases the market demand for glass spot. At the same time, the production enterprises also increased their own inventory clearance efforts, striving to reduce the inventory to the minimum before the off-season. In terms of spot price, it is basically to stabilize the market transaction price, and manufacturers in some regions are slightly flexible. But generally speaking, the price adjustment is not large in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 42 th week (10.19-10.23) of 2020, there are 3 kinds of commodities rising and 0 kinds of falling commodities, and 2 kinds of commodities are up and down. The main commodities that rose were hydrochloric acid (3.54%), calcium carbide (1.22%) and PVC (0.72%); all of them rose or fell by 1.1% this week..

Analysts of business agency believe that: the performance of soda ash market is weak, downstream manufacturers purchase on demand, enterprises actively ship, downstream procurement is mainly on-demand procurement, traders hold a wait-and-see attitude, and they still hold a wait-and-see state for soda ash. The overall trend of the spot glass market is stable, mainly to stabilize the market transaction price, and manufacturers in some regions are slightly flexible. According to the comprehensive forecast, the domestic soda ash market will be stabilized temporarily, and the downstream market demand will be taken into consideration.

On October 29, the cryolite commodity index was 69.64, flat with yesterday, 31.19% lower than the cycle high of 101.21 (2011-10-31), and 4.96% higher than the lowest point of 66.35 on September 05, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the price trend of domestic cryolite market is stable. The average price of cryolite market in Henan is 5733.33 yuan / ton, down 9.47% compared with last year. At present, the ex factory price of cryolite in Henan Province is 4800-6200 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong Province is 5200-6800 yuan / ton. The manufacturers start normal equipment, have sufficient inventory, and the downstream demand is general, so they purchase on demand. The enterprises hold a wait-and-see attitude and offer stable prices.

On the upstream side, the price of fluorite decreased slightly, with the average price of 2622.22 yuan / ton in the domestic market. The domestic fluorite manufacturers operated normally, the supply of goods was sufficient, and the on-site enterprises’ shipment situation was general, and the fluorite price might continue to be weak in the later stage. In terms of downstream aluminum industry, although the social inventory continued to move down, the phenomenon of market oversupply still existed, and the demand performance was not as expected by the market, and the aluminum industry may be consolidated in the later stage.

Cryolite product analysts of business agency believe that: cryolite manufacturers’ devices operate normally, supply is sufficient, downstream demand is general, and support for cryolite market is insufficient. It is expected that cryolite market will operate weakly and stably in the later stage, and pay attention to market demand specifically.