Monitoring shows that the market of polyaluminum chloride in 2020 is also tortuous. After the first half of winter, fortunately, the second half is still warm. Since the price rise of calcium powder, polyaluminum chloride has experienced a number of major factors: first, the price of raw materials rises, and the cost of enterprises rises; then, the price rises gradually with the “golden nine silver ten”; then, it meets the requirements of environmental protection to stop production, and the supply of goods is short, so it has to rise. So far, there will be a small rise in the second half of 2020, which is not easy.
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However, compared with the market in 2019, the situation in 2020 is more severe, and the overall price is lower than that in the same period of last year.
The market analysis of specific months in 2020 is as follows:
During the period from the Spring Festival holiday in January to February 20, relevant enterprises in the main production areas stopped production and delayed the resumption of work.
In February, in the first and middle of the year, the company stopped production; after the 20th, the manufacturers in Henan resumed work and delivered goods one after another, some of them only resumed work but not production, and the accumulated demand in the early stage was delivered one after another. As the transportation system is gradually recovering and the cost of raw materials is increasing, the ex factory quotation of polyaluminum is increased by 50 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s delivery is back to normal. The main quotation of polyaluminum chloride (fixed, content ≥ 28%) market in the current month is about 1833.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 1833.33 yuan / ton on the 29th. The main quotation range of domestic market is mainly concentrated in: 1800-2200 yuan / ton for solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%), and 400-450 yuan / ton for liquid (industrial grade, content 10% – 12%).
In March, polyaluminum chloride (solid, content ≥ 28%) manufacturers returned to work and production in good condition, logistics gradually recovered, transportation costs have been normal, inventory was still in consumption before the year, some enterprises with high inventory, in the current situation of weak demand, prices slightly decreased. The mainstream quotation in domestic market: 1750-2200 yuan / ton for solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) and 350-450 yuan / ton for liquid (industrial grade, content 10% – 12%). Some quotations have been reduced. The reduction range of solid is about 100-150 yuan / ton and that of liquid is about 50 yuan / ton.
In April, the production of polyaluminum chloride (solid, content ≥ 28%) was normal, but the demand continued to be low, some enterprises had high inventory, and the overall quotation showed a slight downward trend. Main quotation: industrial grade, liquid and alumina content 10%-12% including tax 350-400 yuan / ton; solid content, 20-21% quoted price 860-900 yuan / ton; content 24% quoted price 1200-1250 yuan / ton; content 26% price 1400 yuan / ton; solid content, 28% or more, price 1600-2000 yuan / ton; spray content is more than 30% 30% yuan 1850 yuan / ton; drinking water level, content is more than 28% 28% quoted price 1850 yuan / ton, food price quoted yuan yuan / ton. The price at the end of the month is about 50-100 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month, with a decrease rate of 4.44%. In April, the overall production was normal. Due to the difficulty in shipping, some enterprises still had high inventory, and the output was affected.
In May, the price of polyaluminum chloride (solid, content ≥ 28%) was lower than that in April, and the mainstream quotation was relatively stable. The overall quotation range of the whole country did not change much in that month, and the price of some other manufacturers decreased slightly, about 20-50 yuan / ton. The main quotations in China are: industrial grade, liquid and alumina content, 10%-12%, including 350-400 yuan / ton in tax, 860 yuan / ton in solid and content 20-21%, 24% yuan in price, 1100-1200 yuan / ton in content, 26% yuan in price, 26% yuan in price, and 1580-2000 yuan / ton in solid content, 28% or more in spray grade. The price is about 2800 yuan / ton. During the month, the overall demand of polyaluminum chloride market did not recover, the market was poor, the shipment was general, and the transaction continued to be weak.
In June, the raw materials did not change much. The natural gas used for drying rebounded about 1 percentage point from the bottom this month and then turned downward. The overall decline was about 0.25%, which had little impact on the market. The downstream demand of polyaluminum chloride is still weak. Affected by the industrial environment of water treatment, the overall situation in the first half of the year has not changed much, and the overall environment is poor, so the market of polyaluminum chloride is unavoidably weak. During the month, the overall market was stable and slightly declined, and the domestic mainstream quotation changed little. The mainstream price of polyaluminum chloride with solid content ≥ 28% was about 1775 yuan / ton on the 1st of this month, and about 1762.5 yuan / ton on the 30th, with a slight drop of 0.7%.
In July, under the influence of the weak environment, the market demand is not good, the poly aluminum market will inevitably continue to be weak, and the sales pressure is high. The small price reduction is obvious in the first half of this month, and the frequency of downward adjustment in the second half of this month is relatively lower and more stable. However, from the perspective of the trend of the second half of this month, it is not surprising that the situation is downward.
In August, the water treatment industry began to change, because the price of raw material calcium powder increased from 80 yuan / ton to 1000 yuan / ton. Some manufacturers were constrained by the rising cost and increased the market price of polyaluminum chloride. The mainstream quotation of polyaluminum chloride with solid content ≥ 28% showed a slight rise, including 1561.43 yuan / ton on the 1st and 1571.43 yuan / ton on the 31st, with an increase of 0.64% in August The highest point was about 1582.86 yuan / ton on August 25, with a maximum amplitude of 1.19%. The main influencing factor was the increase in the price of calcium powder.
In September, the mainstream quotation of polyaluminum chloride with solid content ≥ 28% first stabilized and then rose, which was stable in the first half of the month and fluctuated in the second half. The mainstream price on the 1st was 1571.43 yuan / ton, while the mainstream price on the 29th was 1607.14 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 2.27%. This month, the price of calcium powder remained the same as that in August, and the price of hydrochloric acid, the raw material, increased significantly, and it was necessary to queue up to pick up the goods. Although the prices of calcium powder and other raw materials purchased by some enterprises have risen, which affects the ex factory price of polyaluminum chloride; generally speaking, the downstream demand of water treatment industry did not enter the actual sales peak season in the current month, and the market rise is mainly subject to the pressure of the cost side, so the market has certain expectations for the future trend of water treatment industry.
In October, the price of polyaluminum chloride rose significantly in the traditional peak season of “golden nine silver ten”. With the strict requirements of environmental protection inspection and the coming of winter heating season, the demand for polyaluminum in water treatment projects is significantly increased. The mainstream quotation of polyaluminum chloride with solid content ≥ 28% rose, with the highest price of 1675.71 yuan / ton on the 22nd, the biggest increase of 3.35%, and then decreased slightly. The current increase is about 2.47%, and the mainstream quotation is about 1661.43 yuan / ton. Due to the rising price of raw material hydrochloric acid and natural gas, the cost of polyaluminum chloride manufacturers increased in the current month, with an increase of about 150 yuan / ton. September and October are also the traditional sales peak season of the industry, especially October, which is the best month of the year.
In November, the market of polyaluminum chloride continued to fluctuate and rise. The lowest mainstream price of solid and content ≥ 28% polyaluminum chloride appeared at 1682.86 yuan / ton in the first ten days of the month, and the highest price was about 1740 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 3.4%. Among them, on the basis of the price increase of raw material hydrochloric acid and calcium powder in the first two months and the price rise of fuel natural gas used in the production process, and the influence factors of the shortage of supply caused by the shutdown of manufacturers under the requirements of environmental protection policy in the heating season in the current month, the price of polyaluminum chloride continued to rise in the middle and late ten days, and some manufacturers in Henan increased by about 300 yuan / ton. In the middle of the month, the factory stopped production, but the supply was not sufficient.
In December, the market of polyaluminum chloride continued to rise significantly. According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of polyaluminum chloride with solid content ≥ 28% was about 1740 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest price at the end of the month was about 1825 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 4.93%. This price is also the highest price of polyaluminum chloride in 2020. In the first ten days of the month, the shortage of polyaluminum chloride manufacturers was not obvious, but it began to appear in the middle and late ten days. Although the downstream demand is not much more prosperous than in previous years, the shortage of goods gradually boosts the relatively strong market.
Future forecast: business community monitoring found that the current raw material market is relatively stable, and manufacturers are still in a state of shutdown, whether normal production after new year’s day has not been clearly informed. At this time of polyaluminum chloride, the next half of the highest price of the end of 2020. In January 2021, under the uncertain situation of the manufacturer’s resumption of production, the shortage of some sources of goods may last for a period of time. After new year’s day, with the approach of the Spring Festival holiday and the increasingly cold weather, the demand for polyaluminum chloride will be much lighter. It is preliminarily estimated that the price will be mainly stable.
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