1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, the recent domestic caprolactam price rise. The average ex factory price of caprolactam on October 13 was 9233 yuan / ton, and that on October 23 was 9733 yuan / ton, with an increase of 5.42% on October 10.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the supply of caprolactam decreased and the price of caprolactam rose. As of October 23, the price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was 9400 yuan / T, and the factory had a production capacity of 300000 tons. The actual transaction can be discussed. Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid price is 10100 yuan / ton. The 400000 tons / year plant starts normally, and the caprolactam unit operates normally. The price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid is 9900 yuan / ton. Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid price is 9900 yuan / T, 450000 tons / year, the plant is in normal operation, accepted and delivered. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical Company is 9900 yuan / ton, and the 300000 tons / year unit is normally started and accepted.

The domestic market of raw material pure benzene rose mainly driven by styrene, and the market trading atmosphere rose. The higher price of pure benzene stimulated the downstream purchasing enthusiasm and the market transaction was active.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts believe that the recent decline in caprolactam inventory, supply reduction. The raw material pure benzene rose, the downstream demand for caprolactam increased, and the upstream and downstream support was strong. In the short term, caprolactam market is expected to maintain a strong trend or continue to rise.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of October 22, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 8600 yuan / ton. The price of domestic DMF market continued to grow, with a strong upward trend, and the price continued to rise. Compared with the same period last month, the price increased by 22.27%, 16.74% compared with the beginning of October, and the overall increase was more than 1000 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic DMF market price increased by more than 1000 yuan in the short term, the downstream demand increased, just needed to replenish, the manufacturers shipped smoothly, at present, the inventory is not under pressure, and the device is in normal operation. At present, the overall DMF market has a strong upward trend, the focus of negotiation moves upward, and the buying mentality drives the price to continue to rise. As of October 22, Luxi Chemical Industry quoted 9000 yuan / ton, Hualu Hengsheng 8000 yuan/ It is 9200 yuan / ton in Xinghua of Shaanxi Province, 8900-9300 yuan / ton in East China market and 9200-9400 yuan / ton in South China market.

Methanol in the upstream is mainly stable, with general transaction atmosphere, no pressure on inventory and narrow range sorting.

The chemical index on October 21 was 767 points, up 3 points compared with yesterday, 24.51% lower than 1016 points (2012-03-13), and 28.26% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

DMF analysts believe that: DMF market is currently running at a high level, with strong upward momentum and maintaining an upward trend in the short term. (the above prices are provided by major DMF manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business DMF analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

In the first half of 2020, the crude oil price fell deeply, and the overseas epidemic situation became more and more serious. The chemical products fell off cliff, and ethylene glycol was no exception. After the “11th” festival, the eg price was relatively strong, driven by the traditional peak season and the periodic improvement of internal and external orders.

Eg double benefits centralized release

Li WANYING, a senior analyst at the East China Sea Research Institute, believes that recently, ethylene glycol is favorable for centralized release. First of all, due to the proper control of domestic epidemic situation, it is said that Christmas orders from India and other countries have been transferred to China. These orders should be mainly cotton spinning, indirectly driving the polyester market. Secondly, in terms of domestic trade, the retail sales of 100 key large-scale retail enterprises increased by 8.5% year-on-year during the national day, which was 14.3 percentage points higher than that in the same period in 2019.

From the perspective of the main category markets, the retail sales of clothing category grew brilliantly, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.8%. Among them, the growth rate of men’s clothing, women’s clothing and children’s clothing was 23.9%, 13.1% and 27.3%, respectively, which was higher than the market expectation, which rekindled the industry’s expectation for the peak season. In addition, the “cold winter” expectation brought by La Nina effect increased the market demand for warm fabrics in winter.

Supply side contraction logic is about to turn

Since the beginning of this year, affected by factors such as large fluctuations in costs, the overall profitability of the ethylene glycol unit is poor, and the oil head unit once lost money. With the price repair since the third quarter, the profitability of many devices has improved.

It is expected that the ethylene glycol production capacity will be increased in the later part of the fourth quarter. The 400000 T / a oil production unit of Sinopec will be put into operation on October 26, the 400000 T / a unit of Xinjiang Tianye (600075, Guba) is in operation and commissioning, and the ethylene glycol unit of Henan Longyu with a capacity of 200000 t / A is planned to be commissioned in October.

Founder medium term futures Sui Xiaoying believes that although the current supply and demand of ethylene glycol is in the process of going to the warehouse, the release pressure of long-term production capacity will still suppress the space for futures price to strengthen.

According to Li WANYING’s analysis, the capacity of domestic ethylene glycol plant from syngas reached 5.79 million tons, accounting for 39% of the domestic ethylene glycol production capacity. According to the amount of 3 million tons, the total production capacity of polyester at the end of the year is about 63.3 million tons. Even if the comprehensive operating rate is 90%, the average monthly ethylene glycol demand is about 1.8-1.9 million tons. By the end of this year, the production capacity of ethylene glycol is expected to be 15 million tons.

Demand uncertainty in the fourth quarter

“The biggest question at the moment is whether these benefits can continue to boost the market in the fourth quarter.” Li WANYING said that the overseas epidemic situation is still the biggest uncertainty, at least from the data point of view, the possibility of a second outbreak of infection in autumn and winter is relatively high. For the textile and clothing terminal, the most serious period of the epidemic in the first half of the year led to many clothing stores losing money and closing down, and it is difficult to fundamentally reverse the shrinking demand under the background of the epidemic situation.

On the domestic side, the crowded orders and rush orders in October will obviously ease in November, and the market speculation atmosphere will return to rationality. In terms of raw material procurement, according to the CCF research results, the downstream upstream has been actively replenished in the early stage, and the production and sales volume has continued to be large for half a month. At present, the average stock of raw materials on hand in the downstream reaches is generally more than 25 days, and some parts are higher for 1-2 months. Both weaving and texturing, recent procurement has begun to be reasonable, and polyester production and sales are gradually falling. The market has been waiting for the profit is often infinitely amplified, as investors still need to pay attention to the effective continuation of the peak season. For raw materials PTA and MEG, once the demand shows signs of decline, fundamental pressure will return to the disk.

Considering their respective import conditions, ethylene glycol needs a long-term shutdown capacity of 4.5-5 million tons. Even if 1.2 million tons of ethylene long-term shutdown units are deducted, 3.5 million tons of plant shutdown are still needed. The coal chemical industry should be controlled below 35%, which can maintain the balance of supply and demand. At present, the overall load of ethylene glycol has significantly recovered from the previous low level. Li WANYING reminded investors that investors should carefully evaluate the sustainability of the peak season. In the medium and long term, the 01 contract still has downward momentum.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, affected by the tight supply and the high price of raw materials, the market of dichloromethane in Shandong was operating at a high level. As of October 20, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong was about 3050 yuan / ton, up 17.31% compared with the beginning of the month and 29.24% higher than the same period of last month.

At present, the domestic dichloromethane market is running at a high level. The dichloromethane production enterprises start less than 60% of the total, and the market supply is tight. In addition, some enterprises execute export orders, and the overall supply of the industry is limited. The continuous high level of raw material liquid chlorine supports the price of dichloromethane. At present, the price of chloromethane in Shandong Province is about RMB 3050 / T, which is about RMB 3050 / T in Shandong Province.

In terms of upstream market, the methanol market was slightly higher due to the favorable factors such as overseas equipment maintenance and port continued to go to storage. At present, most traders ship at high prices, and it is expected that the domestic methanol market will fluctuate at a high level in the short term, at present, it is about 1930 yuan / ton; the liquid chlorine market is affected by the price reduction in the downstream market, and the price has declined slightly, but the overall price is still at a high level, and the market shipment situation is fair. At present, the mainstream quotation in the industry is about 1000-1200 yuan / ton.

In terms of downstream market, the refrigerant market entered the off-season weak and stable operation, the market transaction was weak, and there was a lack of upward action in a short time; the pharmaceutical and agricultural solvent industry started smoothly, and there was insufficient support for dichloromethane.

According to the methane chloride data of the business society, the current domestic dichloromethane market is not started very high, the market inventory pressure is not big, and the manufacturers have good intention to raise prices, but the downstream market acceptance is not high, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is aggravated, and it is expected that the domestic dichloromethane market will continue to run stably in a short period of time.

1、 Price trend

This week, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly, with the quotation rising from 1686.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1690.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.2%, and a decrease of 6.11% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, and the urea commodity index on October 16 was 78.60.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong this week rose slightly. At the end of this week, the price of urea in Yangmei plain was 1700 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the quotation of Shandong Ruixing urea was 1670 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was increased by 10 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; the price of open water urea was 1700 yuan / T at the end of this week, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the recent high consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia has better cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply.

From the international perspective, India’s RCF urea bidding was launched on the afternoon of 14, with a total bidding volume of 3.6 million tons, and the lowest price of 279.25 CFR US dollars / ton on the east coast. The price was not significantly different from the domestic mainstream regional prices, forming a certain support for the domestic market.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chain, the overall rise of urea upstream products this week: the price of liquefied natural gas rose slightly, with the price of liquefied natural gas rising slightly from 2800.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2916.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 4.17%, 23.71% compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia rose slightly this week, from 3166.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3200.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.05%, compared with the same period last year Flat. This week, the price of melamine downstream of urea fell slightly, falling 0.60% from 5600.00 at the beginning of the week to 5566.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week. Overall, this week urea cost support is strong.

3、 Future forecast

In late October, the urea market in Shandong Province fluctuated slightly. Urea analysts from the business club believe that the current agricultural demand has followed up, and the downstream industry has a fair enthusiasm for urea procurement, and the short-term urea market is expected to fluctuate slightly.