Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of acetic anhydride continued to rise sharply in October. As of October 16, the average price of acetic anhydride was 5800.00 yuan / ton, up 2.43% from 5662.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 1.69% lower than that of last year.

Acetic acid price trend

It can be seen from the trend chart of acetic acid price that the price of acetic acid first fell and then rose in October, the market of acetic anhydride stopped falling and rose, the cost of acetic anhydride rose slightly, and the driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride increased.

Methanol price trend

It can be seen from the methanol price trend chart that the methanol market rose strongly in October, and the methanol price rose sharply by 7.10%. The cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the driving force for the increase of acetic anhydride increased, and the market of acetic anhydride was favorable.

Market review and future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data from business club, the price of acetic anhydride raw materials rose in October, and the cost of acetic anhydride rose; after the holiday, Yankuang acetic anhydride equipment replaced catalyst, the operating rate of acetic anhydride equipment decreased, the supply of acetic anhydride decreased, and the supply of acetic anhydride enterprises was insufficient. On the whole, the supply of acetic anhydride is insufficient, the cost of acetic anhydride is rising, the driving force of acetic anhydride rising is increasing, and the support of acetic anhydride rising is sufficient. It is expected that the pressure of acetic anhydride rise in the future market and the price of acetic anhydride will rise.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of October 15, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol including packaging in mainstream areas was around 11433 yuan / ton, which was increased by 67 yuan / ton or 0.59% compared with October 1; compared with September 1, the average price was reduced by 300 yuan / ton, or 2.56%.

This week, the domestic market of n-propanol was adjusted in a narrow range, and the overall trend was stable. At present, the main offer price of n-propanol domestic trade market including packaging was about 11000-115000 yuan / ton, which was increased by about 70 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. The ex factory price of domestic factory bulk water was 10000-10500 yuan / ton, which was roughly stable compared with the beginning of the week. Domestic Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. (Nanjing Wujiang Chemical Co., Ltd.) started normal normal production of n-propanol, and made an external offer of 10000 yuan / T (bulk water). This week, the market sales of n-propanol were relatively stable, and the prices of manufacturers in Nanjing fluctuated, and the range was not large.

In terms of raw materials, since October, the local market of ethylene external market has been running at a high level and fluctuated slightly, and the overall market is still rising compared with the beginning of the month. Among them, the Asian ethylene market is more obvious. On the 13th, in the Asian ethylene market, CFR quoted 865-875 US dollars / ton in Northeast Asia and 825-835 US dollars / ton in CFR Southeast Asia, up 10 US dollars / ton. In recent years, the price of ethylene in Asia is mainly rising, and the demand is fair.

Stable demand and stable raw materials

At present, the inventory of n-propanol manufacturers in China is basically normal, the production and operation are normal, the demand and supply of n-propanol are mainly contracted, and the relationship between supply and demand is generally maintained in a relatively balanced state. The market sales of n-propanol industry is general, the demand of factories is relatively stable, and there is more trade between factories. The high price of ethylene of upstream products supports the cost of n-propanol. At present, the market of n-propanol is flat and the atmosphere of negotiation is general. Business club is propanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market stable operation, price range fluctuations. In the later stage, we should pay attention to the cost of raw materials and the supply of goods.

After the festival, the domestic polysilicon market maintained the situation before the festival, and today’s market slightly stabilized. At present, the operating rate of domestic polysilicon manufacturers has rebounded. Up to now, about three polysilicon manufacturers have been maintaining maintenance or load reduction. The production capacity in Xinjiang has been gradually restored, and the supply has slightly increased compared with the previous period. However, the inventory of most enterprises increased slightly compared with the previous month, and the situation of enterprise signing continued, and the orders basically ended in October. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic mainstream transaction price of polysilicon with the model of first-class solar material is 65000-70000 yuan / ton.

In the near future, polysilicon will maintain a basic balance between supply and demand, and the medium-term market may enter a pattern of loose supply. In particular, with the further tightening of the export of photovoltaic products, downstream demand may be relatively low. It is expected that the price of polysilicon will be affected by it, and it is not ruled out that it may continue to fall.

Note: the above price is tax inclusive

Trade name: nitrile rubber

Latest price (September 30): 15366.67 yuan / ton

Analysis points: the domestic NBR market is stable, and the mainstream average price is 15366.67/t. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic NBR market offers are stable, with Lanhua NBR 3308 as the mainstream, Nandi 1052 as the mainstream, and Russia as 2665 as the main market, with the price of RMB 14900-15300 / T, RMB 16400-16800 / T, and RMB 13400-13700 / T, respectively.

The prices of butadiene and acrylonitrile continue to remain high. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic butadiene price is 6288 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of acrylonitrile in Shanghai Secco is 8650 yuan / ton.

Aftermarket forecast: raw materials go up, the market price of NBR is expected to remain high in the short term.

The commodity index of hydrogenated benzene on September 27 was 36.78, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 63.94% compared with 102.01 point (2014-01-09), and increased by 22.64% compared with the lowest point of 29.99 on April 07, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2013 to now).

In September 2020, the hydrogenated benzene market will fluctuate upward. The ex factory price in North China will increase by 6.90% from 3117.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 3332.50 yuan / ton at the end of the month.

On August 14, 2020, the price of pure benzene of Qilu Petrochemical (Sinopec North China) will be reduced by 100 yuan / ton, and the price will be 3300 yuan / ton after adjustment. As of September 27, Sinopec’s price has not been adjusted.

It can be seen from the price trend chart of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong Province monitored in the above figure that the price of hydrogenated benzene fluctuated greatly this month. At the beginning of the month, the price of hydrogenated benzene rose due to the upward trend of pure benzene price. The downstream demand of pure benzene in North China was better, and the pure benzene enterprises raised their prices one after another. The price of hydrogenated benzene enterprises rose all the way supported by the price of pure benzene. In addition, the price of crude benzene in the upstream rose Under the influence, manufacturers have strong willingness to stand up. The price of pure benzene is relatively high, the downstream profit is limited, and the psychology of resisting high price is strong. The support glue of basic crude oil price is weak. The price of pure benzene begins to fall, and the hydrobenzene market falls. After that, with the shock and recovery of crude oil, the market mentality has improved, and the price of hydrogenated benzene remains temporarily stable. The crude oil price boosted the pure benzene market, and at the beginning of the middle of the year, the market supply of some hydrogenated benzene enterprises was reduced, which further boosted the market price of hydrogenated benzene. As the end of recent months was approaching the long holiday, the market had a certain demand for stock. The price of hydrogenated benzene was mainly fluctuating, with the mainstream range of about 3100-3150 yuan / ton.

In terms of downstream demand, the unit maintenance is basically completed near the end of the month. It is expected that the demand for pure benzene hydrobenzene will increase slightly in the fourth quarter, and some new production capacity will be put into production, which has certain support for hydrobenzene.

Start up of some hydrogenated benzene units in September 2020

Enterprise name device status device capacity remarks

Shandong Shengyun chemical shutdown 100000 tons, restart time to be determined

Derun Chemical Co., Ltd. shut down 150000 tons in February

Shandong Jinneng Chemical Co., Ltd. shut down 100000 tons in July

Hebei Jiantao parking 100000 tons in March

100000 tons parking in Baofeng, Ningxia last week

On the supply side, the cost pressure of hydrogenated benzene enterprises was still large, and some enterprises stopped. However, with the restart of units near the end of the month, some units will start up after the festival. It is expected that the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene will increase slightly after the festival.

In the aftermarket, the business community believed that the preparation of hydrogenated benzene before the festival was basically completed, and the market shock was suck. The crude oil benzene was not strong enough to support the external market. The good support was limited and the market was more emotional.