1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the sulfur production price in East China at the weekend was 636.67 yuan / ton, which was 2.14% higher than that at the beginning of the week and 25.97% lower than that of last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the sulfur price in East China is on the upward trend. The sulfur market demand is not warm and not hot. There is a lack of substantive information on the internal and external markets. The downstream factories are less active in purchasing and the market operation mentality is not positive. The trading and trading are mainly on demand. During the week, Sinopec’s quotation of solid and liquid sulfur in East China was stable; in Shandong, Sinopec, the price of solid sulfur was increased by 20 yuan / ton, by 64 yuan / ton; by 20-40 yuan / ton, by 610-640 yuan / ton; in North China of Sinopec, the price of solid and liquid sulfur was increased by 20 yuan / ton, 550-650 yuan / ton and 500-650 yuan / ton, respectively.

On the downstream side, domestic phosphate fertilizer started normal, the market trading was a little dull, mainly purchasing on demand, and the export volume and price were stable. This week, the domestic market of ammonium phosphate was weak and stable. Affected by the weather, the start-up of primary ammonium and enterprises decreased, the enthusiasm of downstream purchasing was not high, and the inventory of enterprises was under pressure; the market of DAP started higher, the demand was better, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm improved. In terms of sulfuric acid, the price is mainly stable, and there is no obvious fluctuation in the market. Domestic acid enterprises have little change in the start-up, and most of them maintain stable supply. However, the domestic market is in excess of sulfuric acid supply. Under the game between supply and demand, it is expected that the sulfuric acid market will be weak in the future.

3、 Future forecast

Aftermarket forecast: according to the sulfur analysts of business club, although the domestic sulfur market has slightly adjusted this week, the overall price fluctuation is not big, and the market supply and demand performance is still flat. At present, the port inventory remains high, the downstream construction is low and stable, and the demand performance is stable. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will be weak and stable.

Upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid prices remained high, while the overall price of aluminum fluoride fell first and then rose. According to the data of business agency, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 8833 yuan / ton on July 30, 0.95% higher than that at the beginning of the month.

In July, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid market prices remained at a high level. By the end of the month, the domestic fluorite price was 2800 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic spot supply of fluorite was normal, and the operation of fluorite devices on site was stable. It reflected that the spot supply of fluorite was tight and the fluorite price remained high. The downstream aluminum fluoride market price brings certain cost support.

At the beginning of the month, the aluminum fluoride manufacturers reduced the shipment slightly, and the demand of electrolytic aluminum enterprises to copy the bottom increased. In addition, the fluorite price remained at a high level, and the aluminum fluoride factory increased rapidly. At present, most enterprises are facing losses, some factories are operating at low load, the quotation of the owner is firm, and the sales intention of aluminum fluoride market is obvious.

The aluminum fluoride industry analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that: the upstream fluorite prices remain high, aluminum fluoride manufacturers stand up for sales, and the price of aluminum fluoride is expected to rise steadily.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the overall price of lithium carbonate in East China showed an upward trend in July, and the prices of industrial carbon and electric carbon increased to varying degrees. As of July 29, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 39700 yuan / ton, which was 260 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial carbon in East China was 39440 yuan / ton on July 1), up 0.66%. On July 29, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 44900 yuan / ton, which was 700 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average price of carbon in East China was 44200 yuan / ton), up 1.58%.

According to the observation of market changes, the market price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in the first ten days of July showed a mixed situation of rise and fall, the downstream demand of the market slightly recovered, and the market inquiry increased. Although the industrial carbon price of some enterprises slightly increased, the overall price still slightly declined. With the gradual improvement of the operating rate, the price of industrial carbon began to rise gradually in the middle and late July, and the demand was relatively better. But near the end of the month, the downstream enterprises have a low acceptance of the price increase, so the price returns to stable.

However, in the long run, the bottom of the price has already appeared, the demand for battery grade lithium carbonate is limited, and the demand of purification enterprises is increasing, and the pressure of market supply surplus is still under. For the rise of prices, downstream enterprises are not very receptive, so it has been stable since the end of the last ten days.

The downstream market price of lithium hydroxide remained stable throughout July. At present, large battery grade lithium hydroxide manufacturers have low willingness to reduce prices, high price is firm, spot transactions are sporadic, and low price or with a small amount of material manufacturers purchase a small amount of decline. In the lithium iron phosphate Market, the price of iron and lithium remained unchanged due to the difficulty for downstream battery manufacturers to accept the increase in iron lithium price. Therefore, this will restrain the upward trend of lithium carbonate price. This month, the comprehensive price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is between 35000 yuan / ton and 45000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive price of battery grade lithium carbonate is between 45000 yuan / ton and 48000 yuan / ton.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of the business club, the sharp increase of lithium carbonate import and the increase of domestic industrial carbon production will alleviate the tight situation of subsequent shipment, but the upward space of lithium salt price will be narrowed. In addition, the demand for ternary materials recovered slowly, and lithium carbonate inventory pressure is still under pressure. It is expected that the upward space of lithium carbonate price is still under pressure in the short term.

The domestic butadiene market continued to rise. According to the price monitored by the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price was 3473 yuan / ton on July 19, and 34954234 yuan / ton on July 28, with an increase of 21.91% during the period. The price rose by 22.50% compared with the same period of last month and decreased by 52.37% compared with the same period last year.

The main reasons for the sharp rise in the domestic butadiene market are as follows: one is the strong support for the continuous increase of the external market price of butadiene; the other is that the domestic production enterprises have a lot of maintenance, and the supply of goods is relatively tight in the short term. Traders take this opportunity to actively push up the price of butadiene. It is hard to find the low-cost source of goods in the market. The downstream just needs to purchase, and the quotation of middlemen keeps up with the increase. The market atmosphere is strong Thick.

In terms of enterprises, the butadiene price of Sinopec sales companies has been increased by 800 yuan / ton in recent 10 days, with 4500 yuan / ton implemented; Liaoyang Petrochemical’s butadiene price has been increased by 900 yuan / ton to 4600 yuan / ton; the latest butadiene price of Inner Mongolia Jiutai energy is 4800 yuan / ton; the latest price of Dalian Hengli butadiene is 4410 yuan / ton.

In terms of industrial chain: SBR: narrow range of domestic mainstream SBR Market. The mainstream offer of Qilu 1502e in North China is 7750-7800 yuan / ton, while that of Qilu 1502e market in East China is around 8050 yuan / ton.

Butadiene rubber: the price of raw material butadiene continued to rise, and cis-1,3,4-butadiene rubber traders were cautious in shipping, and the low-level in the market disappeared, and some of them made tentative price increase offers. However, considering that Qilu and other units were restarted one after another, the supply would be large, and the merchants were still lack of confidence in the future market, so they would ship according to the market; the downstream purchase maintained rigid demand, but the actual order still needed to wait and see.

External market continued to rise, domestic manufacturers’ prices continued to rise, stimulating the downstream inquiry atmosphere, short-term low-cost supply is hard to find, business agency butadiene analysts predict that the short-term domestic butadiene market will perform relatively high, and it is recommended to pay close attention to the transaction guidelines.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business agency, as of July 27, the average price of maleic anhydride with benzene hydrogenation method was 6600 yuan / ton (including tax), and the overall market was stable and upward, with an increase of 2.06% compared with the average price of 6466 yuan / ton in the same period of last month.

On July 26, the commodity index of maleic anhydride was 60.60, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 51.00% from the highest point of 123.67 (December 26, 2017), and increased by 18.41% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: affected by tight supply, the price of maleic anhydride in the main production areas continued to rise, while other regions followed. Some enterprises were reluctant to sell solid anhydride, which led to the aggravation of supply tension in the industry, the purchasing sentiment in the downstream market rebounded, and the price support for maleic anhydride was fair.

Industrial chain: the hydrobenzene market is affected by the replenishment of traders, and the price has stopped falling and stabilized. However, in the long run, the price of raw materials continues to fall, which does not support the price of hydrobenzene, and the downstream market just needs to be flat; the downstream unsaturated resin market is in a horizontal direction, with strong market wait-and-see sentiment, and with maleic anhydride, the cost pressure is becoming increasingly obvious.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of maleic anhydride products of the business agency, the current maleic anhydride market continues to rise due to the tight supply. It is difficult to effectively make up the supply gap in the short term, and the seller has a good intention of supporting prices. It is expected that the maleic anhydride price will be firm in the short term