The price of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid in the upstream has little change, which effectively supports the price of aluminum fluoride. According to the data of business agency, the price of domestic aluminum fluoride on May 15 was 8833.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as that on May 8.

In May, the prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid in China fell sharply. By the end of May and the beginning of June, the prices had stabilized and recovered. According to the data of business agency, the prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid held steady from June 8 to 15, with weekly growth of only 0.24% and 1.7%. The price of upstream raw materials remains strong, which effectively supports the price of aluminum fluoride.

Prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid rebounded upward, and the start-up level of downstream aluminum fluoride enterprises was improved. By the early June, the start-up level of aluminum fluoride enterprises had risen to about 40%.

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry in the chemical branch of business society think that: the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid market has stopped falling and rebounded, which has cost support for aluminum fluoride, but at the same time, the supply of aluminum fluoride has been increased. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will remain stable in the near future, or slightly decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, the mainstream price of styrene in China this week was weak and fluctuated slightly. On Monday (June 8), the sample enterprise price of the business agency was 5600.00 yuan / ton, and on Friday (June 12), the sample enterprise price was 5500.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.89%. The price is 36.93% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, styrene market price was weak and fluctuated slightly. On June 8, East China styrene closed at 5550-5600 yuan / ton, and on June 12, 5550 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton. The above price is Zhangjiagang’s export price. On June 8, South China styrene closed at 5650-5700 yuan / ton, and on June 12, 5650-5700 yuan / ton, stable. The delivery price of the above factories was stable.

In terms of raw materials, crude oil fluctuated in the week, and pure benzene and ethylene in the upper reaches of styrene rose sharply at the same time. As of Friday (June 11), the main quotation of ethylene was 679.75 yuan / ton, up 58.25 yuan / ton, or 9.37%, compared with 621.50 yuan / ton on Friday (June 5). As of Friday (June 11), the mainstream price of pure benzene was 3750.00 yuan / ton, up 90 yuan / ton, or 2.46%, compared with 3660.00 yuan / ton on Friday (June 5).

In terms of inventory, the oversupply situation has not changed in the short term, and the mainstream inventory is still high. It is expected that the inventory volume in the East China reservoir area will still rise next week, the warehouse capacity will be tight, and the pressure of spot selling will be huge. In addition, this week, the operating rate of domestic styrene plants increased to about 80%. Although the cost increase brings cost support in theory, due to the heavy pressure of spot selling, the price of styrene is difficult to rise. The production of styrene plants has been close to the cash flow level, and the overall supply pressure is still large. Total inventory in East China this week was 363500 tons, down 1.06% from 369400 tons last week. Last week, part of the cargo was delayed to unload this week. Affected by the increase of the storage cost of the terminal, the pick-up volume of some terminals increased significantly. This week’s arrival is too much. It is expected that the styrene inventory will remain high next week.

On the downstream side, the overall strength of styrene downstream this week, still maintain a considerable production and marketing profit. PS market, as of Friday (June 12), the main factory price of PS in East China was 7900.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with last Friday (June 5). This week, the market was stable and consolidated due to the lack of good news stimulation.

In the EPS market, as of Friday (June 12), the main ex factory price of EPS in East China was 8187.50 yuan / ton, up 175 yuan / ton or 2.18% compared with 8012.50 yuan / ton on Friday (June 5). EPS market is short of supply, some factories take orders carefully, traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and the overall performance is strong.

In the ABS market, as of Friday (June 12), the main ex factory quotation of ABS Zhejiang was 13300.00 yuan / ton, up 650 yuan / ton, or 5.14% compared with 12650.00 yuan / ton on Friday (June 5). This week, the demand for ABS terminal home appliances continued to be strong, the spot supply in some markets was tight, the overall inventory was low, and the price is expected to rise and fall in the short term. 3、 In the future, East China’s total inventory is expected to rise in the next week, and crude oil is not expected to be significantly lowered. The cost pressure in the upstream section of styrene is increasing, while the downstream keeps the operating rate unchanged, mainly to maintain rigid demand. Styrene spot sales pressure is still large, and it is expected that next week styrene will be dominated by weak shocks, first weak and then strong. The market needs to pay close attention to the trend of crude oil price.

3、 Future outlook

Next week, the total inventory in East China is still expected to rise, and crude oil is not expected to be significantly lowered. The cost pressure in the upstream section of styrene is increasing, while the operation rate in the downstream remains unchanged, mainly to maintain rigid demand. Styrene spot sales pressure is still large, and it is expected that next week styrene will be dominated by weak shocks, first weak and then strong. The market needs to pay close attention to the trend of crude oil price.

In recent years, the price of domestic light rare earth market has continued to rise, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide and praseodymium neodymium alloy has continued to rise, and the market of light rare earth has recovered. According to the rare earth sector index of business association, on June 9, the rare earth index was 340 points, up 5 points from yesterday, down 66.00% from 1000 points (2011-12-06), the highest point in the cycle, and up 25.46% from 271, the lowest point on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

As of June 9, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide in rare earth in China was 284500 yuan / ton, with an increase of 4.98% in June; the price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 357500 yuan / ton, with an increase of 5.61% in June, and the prices of neodymium oxide, metal neodymium, praseodymium oxide and metal praseodymium rose to varying degrees.

In recent years, the demand of domestic rare earth industry has improved, and the on-site goods holding merchants are bullish. The merchants are reluctant to sell, and the on-site rising sentiment is strong. In addition, with the economic recovery in Europe and the United States, the demand of permanent magnet manufacturers has increased, the price of praseodymium neodymium series rare earth continues to rise, and the market price of light rare earth is still at a low level. The Tariff Commission of the State Council announced the second exclusion list of the second batch of goods subject to us and Canadian tariffs, which mainly includes: rare earth metal ore, silver ore and its concentrate, gold ore, nickel alloy plate / strip / foil, nickel alloy wire, nickel alloy tube, aluminum alloy tube with an outer diameter of no more than 10 cm, titanium tube, nickel cadmium battery, etc. This time, the tariff imposed by the 301 measure against the United States will not be added to the rare earth metal ore, and the added tariff will be refunded. It is possible to promote the import of rare earth metal ore, which is a good support for the praseodymium neodymium oxide Market, and the price of domestic light rare earth market continues to rise.

Heavy rare earth accounts for a large proportion of annual production in the domestic rare earth collection and storage plan, which is expected to have a greater impact on the supply and demand of heavy rare earth and the price. Considering that the current closure of Myanmar still has a tightening impact on the domestic import and supply of heavy rare earth, once the collection and storage plan is implemented as scheduled, it will have a greater impact on the supply and demand of heavy rare earth dysprosium and terbium and the price rise. In the near future, the market price of heavy rare earth is generally at a high level; in addition, with the resumption of work and production, the market of terminal new energy vehicles is picking up, the price of domestic terbium series rare earth is rising, and the market price of heavy rare earth is also rising.

The Ministry of information issued the notice on the docking and implementation of preferential policies for rare earth industry, saying that the rare earth office entrusted China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for rare earth enterprise application, forming the collection of relevant supporting policies for rare earth industry resumption. The policy is favorable to support the development of rare earth industry, and the relationship between China and the United States is somewhat loose. The key products of rare earth trade between China and the United States are of great significance. The national policy is conducive to the balance of supply and demand of rare earth industry. In the near future, the supply of rare earth market is normal, the demand is improving, and the market price of light rare earth is rising.

Recently, the domestic demand for rare earth is higher than before. In addition, the supply of medium heavy rare earth market is still tight. Analysts of business agency expect that the market price of rare earth in the later period may continue to rise.

This week (6.1-6.5) the price of NBR fell slightly. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of NBR at the beginning of the week was 13900 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the week was 13833 yuan / ton, with a slight decline of 0.48% overall.

The rise and fall of raw material prices show each other, and mutual restriction has an impact on the price of NBR. The price of butadiene has a small decline, and the price of acrylonitrile has a small rise. According to the business news agency, the price of butadiene was 4140 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, 3801 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 8.19% on the whole; the factory price of acrylonitrile Shanghai Secco was increased from 7750 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week to 8000 yuan / ton, up 3.23% on the whole.

In addition to the shutdown of some NBR units, the overall start-up of NBR is stable, the overall start-up rate of NBR has little change, and the supply side still faces pressure. According to the business agency, Lanzhou Petrochemical’s 15000 ton nitrile rubber plant was shut down for maintenance on May 27, and it is planned to shut down for 25 days. Zhenjiang Nandi, Jinpu YINGSA and Ningbo shunze units are under normal operation.

In terms of the downstream, at present, the downstream plants still mainly consume the early inventory, with a small amount of inquiry on demand, and the overall sales volume of NBR is slightly flat.

Future market forecast: the NBR analysts of the business club think that the downstream demand is flat, the overall start-up of NBR is not low, and it is expected that the NBR market will continue to be weak in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of power coal fell slightly this week. On June 1, the average port price of power coal was maintained at about 554.75 yuan / ton, and on June 5, the average port price of power coal was maintained at about 551.75 yuan / ton, with the overall price falling by 0.54%, 7.89% lower than the same period last year.

On June 7, the power coal commodity index was 66.48, unchanged from yesterday, down 35.46% from 103.01 (2011-11-15), the highest point in the cycle, and up 48.72% from 44.70, the lowest point on January 20, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of origin, the “two sessions” ended in China. In early June, the control of policies such as coal management ticket was gradually relaxed, production and supply were gradually restored, the downstream procurement was ok, the overall coal price still rose slightly, and the coal price of some coal mines was slightly reduced. It is understood that in recent days, the environmental protection inspection of coal mines in Shenmu area of Shaanxi Province has affected most of the coal mines, which have been shut down for rectification, and the coal volume has been slightly reduced. In addition, some Inner Mongolia customers have turned to Yulin, and the coal price in Shenmu area has been increased by 5-25 yuan / ton in a stable way. The overall sales situation of coal mines in Yulin area of Shaanxi Province is stable, and the coal on the mine is generally less. Since the completion of the overhaul of Daqin Railway, the transfer in of Beigang port has gradually returned to normal, and the inventory has picked up slightly, while the downstream procurement has slowed down, and the shipment is mainly based on long-term cooperation, and there are not many market coal transactions.

In terms of downstream power plants, after the end of the “two sessions” and the completion of the overhaul of Daqin line, the transfer in level of the port around the Bohai sea gradually picked up, with strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market at the beginning of the month, stable quotation from traders and fair transaction. With the arrival of the southern rainy season in the later period, the power generation of hydropower gradually started, the power of thermal power was partially squeezed, and the increase of coal consumption of coastal power plants was limited. At this stage, the inventory of coastal power plants has dropped, and the inventory of key power plants has remained stable. As of June 5, the inventory of six coastal power plants was 14.435 million tons, with a quarter of a thousand tons increase in the weekly to environmental ratio, a decrease of 1.369 million tons compared with the same period last month; the daily coal consumption was 601000 tons, with an increase of 8000 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio, with an increase of 52000 tons compared with the same period last month; the available days were 24.0 days, with an increase of 0.1 day in the weekly to environmental ratio, with a decrease of 4.8 days compared with the same period last month.

In terms of import, under the stable exploration of domestic coal price and strict control of imported coal, the terminal purchase was suspended, the increase of imported coal price was narrowed, the upstream and downstream wait-and-see mood was strong, the purchase enthusiasm was not strong, the number of transactions was small, and the market trading atmosphere was still cold.

Analysts of the business club believe that: in the near future, there has been continuous rain in the south, the daily consumption of coastal power plants is at a low level, and the willingness of the power plants to actively replenish the storage is weak. With the fall of coal demand, coal prices are facing a correction. However, as the weather turns hot, the peak season of coal consumption will officially come, “peak to summer”. Under the peak season of coal consumption, the coal price still has some support. It is comprehensively estimated that the supply and demand of power coal market in the later period is optimistic and there is room for increase. However, with the increase of rain in the later period, the increase range may not be large. See the downstream market demand for details.