price trend
According to data from Shengyishe Spot News, the domestic PC market fluctuated at a high level in the first half of April, with some brands experiencing an overall decline in spot prices. As of April 15th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 16533.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.10% from the beginning of the month.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: Since April, domestic PC aggregation enterprises have experienced a mutual restart and maintenance. In the early stage, the construction of Zhejiang Petrochemical increased, and the single line of Luxi Petrochemical was temporarily shut down. After the overall load change within the interval decreased, it rebounded, and the average operating rate returned to around 87%. The current weekly average production is 70000 tons. Although the load is relatively high, there is still room for contraction in the future supply due to ongoing maintenance plans to be fulfilled. Overall, the supply side’s support for PC is average.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic bisphenol A market gradually declined in the first half of April. Affected by the sharp decline in international crude oil prices, the prices of phenol and acetone have remained stagnant and consolidated. Subsequently, it caused a drag on the price center of bisphenol A in China. At the same time, the current supply of bisphenol A has limited changes and demand has weakened. Merchants are actively shipping and tend to sell at discounted prices. The overall support for PC cost value has weakened.
On the demand side: The improvement in profitability of terminal enterprises is limited, and the load position of PC downstream factories is still average. The current PC price is at a three-year high, and buyers are cautious in stocking up and have poor willingness to build warehouses. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the liquidity of goods has decreased. In the early stage, the atmosphere of PC market speculation was basically cooled down by the fluctuation of crude oil. Currently, the mentality of merchants has weakened, and their offers are subject to the market. Overall, the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
In the first half of April, the domestic PC market fluctuated at a high level. The price of upstream bisphenol A is gradually falling, causing a drag on the cost value of PC. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants is stable and fluctuating, with overall high load and limited expectations of supply tightening. On exchange trading is mainly based on weak demand, and buyers are cautious and take as they please. Transactions are mainly small orders. It is expected that in the short term, the PC market may be suppressed by a sharp decline in the upstream market, and there may still be room for downward adjustment.
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