1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (average ex factory price of SG5 in carbide process), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on March 18 was 6187.5 yuan / ton, down 0.6% compared with the previous day, and down 2.56% compared with the same period last year. On March 18, the PVC commodity index was 78.41, down 0.47 points from yesterday, down 21.59% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-05), and up 34.56% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: the domestic PVC market fell slightly on Wednesday, mainly digesting the previous gains. The trend of PVC futures affected by the recent crude oil market slump is not good, but for the time being, the impact is not significant. The spot market volatility is limited and slightly volatile, but the market trading is weak. With the end enterprises returning to work one after another, the demand has increased to a certain extent, but some enterprises are still facing difficulties in returning to work, the overall operating rate is low, most of them are just in need of replenishment, the weak demand end is difficult to form a strong support for the PVC market, and the manufacturer’s sales pressure is still great. PVC enterprises have gradually increased the operating rate, continued to increase inventory, abundant supply in the market, and the situation of oversupply is hard to change in a short period of time. At the same time, the cost end of calcium carbide is strongly supported. PVC enterprises are mostly in a stable price mentality and wait-and-see attitude. Some enterprises cut prices and make profits in shipment. However, the market as a whole is still in a downturn, and it is difficult to get a good boost. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of March 18, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is 5950-6350 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is around 6080-6210 yuan / ton, the interval price of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is about 6080-6230 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is around 6050-6100 yuan / ton. The real deal can be negotiated.

In terms of Futures: the main PVC v2005 contract fell in shock, closing at 6055 yuan / ton, compared with – 110 yuan on the previous trading day; trading volume was 120748, + 44667; positions were 152462, – 7638, base difference was 95 yuan, + 100 yuan; 5-9 price difference was – 120 yuan, – 0 yuan.

Industry chain: on March 16, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell sharply, falling below $30 per barrel again, and the main contract was 28.70 yuan / barrel, down $3.03 (- 9.55%). Saudi Arabia and Russia have had serious disagreements over production reduction agreements, which led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices. It fell to its lowest level since 2017. Unable to support the price of ethylene, so business analysts expect the price of ethylene to keep a narrow decline in the future. In terms of calcium carbide, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly, and the future market forecast that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region in mid March might fall slightly.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on March 18, 2020, there was a total of one kind of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which natural rubber (0.21%) rose. There are 10 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, and the top three products were cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber (- 2.86%), styrene butadiene rubber (- 2.69%) and PA6 (- 1.71%). The average price of this day was – 0.76%.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of the business club think that the current PVC market is weak and the overall market is slightly depressed. The trend of futures is not good, the awareness of spot price is strong, but the pattern of supply over demand is hard to change in a short time, and the price is slightly reduced and interest is shipped. It is expected that the PVC market will not improve in the short term. The future market should pay more attention to the trend of crude oil, futures and downstream resumption.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of March 18, the average price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4900.00 yuan / ton, and the market of domestic DMF was weak.

2、 Market analysis

Products: domestic DMF manufacturers still have inventory pressure, and they are actively shipping. With the release of public events, the delivery speed has increased. Early orders are mainly delivered, the number of new orders is limited, the downstream just needs to purchase is mainly, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is not reduced.

Industry chain: the upstream methanol market negotiation is light, weak decline, most enterprises wait-and-see, overseas public events continue to curb demand, oil price plummeted nearly 4-year low, methanol shows weak decline in the short term.

Industry: on March 17, the chemical industry index was 680, down 2 points from yesterday, 33.07% from 1016 (2012-03-13), and 13.33% from 600, the lowest point on January 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

4、 Future forecast

DMF analysts believe that the short-term DMF market maintains a weak and downward operation. (the above prices are provided by the main DMF manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the business DMF analysts for reference only. For more details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation.)

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market was relatively weak in the second week of March, and the spot price was reduced. As of Monday, March 16, the main offer price of T30S by domestic producers and traders was about 7116.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.93% compared with the average price on Monday, March 9.

2、 Cause analysis

Upstream: on the upstream side, influenced by OPEC meeting and international market game recently, the news of international crude oil’s repeated downgrading has obvious negative effect on propylene. According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the domestic market price of propylene has fluctuated since March, with a weak trend in the near future. Due to the low production and inventory before propylene, the previous decline is not significant. However, the crude oil is still volatile, and the downstream trend is not ideal. It is expected that the propylene price will be affected by crude oil in the later stage, showing a significant downward trend.

Product: at present, the domestic PP market quotation is weak, and the overall waiting atmosphere is still heavy. Petrochemical enterprises are under pressure to reduce the factory price, and the price of the company is up and down. The resumption of work in PP downstream plant is normal, the operating rate is not ideal, and the demand follow-up is weak. Business confidence is not strong, the message face is lack of clear guidance message, traders mostly quote according to their own inventory situation. The delivery is average, and the list of low-cost materials is acceptable.

3、 Future forecast

PP analysts of business club think: the domestic PP spot market in the second week of March is generally weaker than that in the first week, and the upstream propylene price falls, which has poor support for the cost end of PP. The return rate of downstream factories needs to be further improved. In terms of demand, the order follow-up is not timely, and small orders are mainly concluded. Petrochemical plant inventory pressure is large, the industry goes with the market, a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that PP market will fluctuate and adjust in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, today’s comprehensive market price is 13766.67 yuan / ton. The PC market is in a weak shock, the downstream market maintains rigid demand, and the real deal is limited.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: affected by foreign public events, the international economic situation is becoming more and more severe. Domestic downstream factories are slowly recovering from the construction, and they are cautious in receiving goods. The pressure on the supply side is greater, the price of raw materials is significantly lower, the cost pressure is greatly increased, and PC enterprises are low in starting, which is difficult to stop falling, and difficult to be relieved in a short period of time.

Industry chain: domestic bisphenol a market continues to break down. At the beginning of the week, due to the sharp drop of crude oil price, which depressed the trading atmosphere of the market, the buyer often held a short forecast on the future market, few active enquiries asked about the price, and the supply and demand fundamentals were still weak. The overall construction of downstream epoxy resin and PC plants was insufficient, traders and factories were under pressure, and most of them focused on low sales. In addition, upstream phenol and acetone negotiations continued to decline, the cost support was weak, and the market was lack of profit Good support, the decline expanded.

Industry: on March 15th, the PC commodity index was 57.84, unchanged from yesterday, down 54.11% from the highest point 126.05 (2017-12-18) in the cycle, and up 8.60% from the lowest point 53.26 on 03 / 02 / 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

3、 Future forecast

PC analysts of business club think: in the short term, domestic PC market is mainly weak.

1、 Acrylic price trend:

The average price of acrylic acid enterprises as of March 13 was 7266.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a three-month cycle, down 10.29% year-on-year, according to the data in the business club’s bulk list. On the 13th, the mainstream price of acrylic acid Market in China was around 6800-7600 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis:

Product: acrylic acid market is stable this week. The industry started at a low level, downstream demand continued to pick up, market trading was orderly, and the mainstream price of acrylic acid market remained stable. At present, the price of acrylic acid of Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. is 7600 yuan / ton for puic acid, 8100 yuan / ton for refined acid; the price of acrylic acid of Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. is 6800 yuan / ton for puic acid, 8500 yuan / ton for refined acid; the price of acrylic acid of Jinan jinrihe Chemical Co., Ltd. is 6700 yuan / ton for puic acid, 7500 yuan / ton for refined acid; the specific transaction price is actually discussed; the price of acrylic acid of Wanhua chemical and Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is stable , mainly for contract and stable customers. At present, the price of acrylic acid is 7000 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the market price of upstream propylene in Shandong region has recently dropped. As of March 12, the market turnover was 6400-6650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was 6400-6450 yuan / ton. Influenced by the OPEC meeting in the past few days, the international crude oil fell sharply in a row. Influenced by the economic stimulus plan and the US manufacturers’ spending cuts, the US crude oil jumped another 8% on the 10th. On the 11th, the international crude oil fell slightly. Due to the low production and inventory of propylene plants, the market supply is not rich, so the previous propylene market fell less. It is expected that the propylene price will fluctuate slightly in the later period, and the future will be affected by the crude oil It has a great impact.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are two kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on March 12, 2020, among which there is one kind of commodity with an increase rate of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top two commodities are liquid ammonia (6.10%) and phenylethylene (0.53%). There are 18 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were crude benzene (- 9.00%), aniline (- 4.56%) and dichloromethane (- 4.00%). The average price of this day was – 0.35%.

3、 Future forecast:

Analysts of acrylic acid in the business community believe that the price of raw material propylene has declined in the near future, and the cost is also weakened in the face of acrylic acid support. With the support of supply and demand, it is expected that in the short term, acrylic acid market will be consolidated and wait-and-see operation, and more attention should be paid to raw material prices and transactions in the mainstream market.