I. price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average weekly price of nitric acid in East China this week was 1716 yuan / ton, while the average weekly price of nitric acid in East China at the weekend was 1683 yuan / ton, down 1.94%.

II. Market analysis

Products: the price of concentrated nitric acid continued to fall, with the quotation of Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. being 1600 yuan / ton, the price remained stable; Anhui Jinhe Chemical Co., Ltd. being 1650 yuan / ton, the quotation remained stable; Shandong helitai concentrated nitric acid Co., Ltd. being 1800 yuan / ton, the quotation was 100 yuan / ton lower than the last time. Anhui Audley offered 1600 yuan / ton, 150 yuan / ton lower than last week’s offer; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offered 1980 yuan / ton, 40 yuan / ton lower than last week’s offer. The demand of nitric acid market is poor, and the quotation of some enterprises is down.

Industry chain: liquid ammonia, the raw material of the upstream of nitric acid, is mainly in a weak decline this week according to the monitoring of the business association. Downstream aniline, in Shandong and Nanjing this week, the price of aniline stopped rising and turned down. The market price of aniline in Shandong is 7950 yuan / ton, while that in Nanjing is 8400 yuan / ton, down 1.22% compared with last week.

III. future forecast

The cost support is weak, and the nitric acid market demand is poor. According to the nitric acid analyst of the business association, the nitric acid market will still operate at a low level.

I. price trend

According to the data in the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic isomeric xylene market rebounded about 2.6% steadily this week due to the support of low port inventory and the rebound of international oil price.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Products: compared with last week, the market transaction this week is flat, and the current mainstream price in East China is about 6250 yuan / ton. According to the feedback from traders, last week’s trading volume was average, and the port inventory remained low, about 19000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, crude oil, this week’s oil price shock correction, spot Brent up 3.63%, Brent futures up 3.39%, WTI futures up 1.56%, Dubai futures up 4.17%.

In the downstream, PX market, the trend of domestic PX price this week is temporarily stable, and the price of external market fluctuates slightly. It is expected that the market price of PX will maintain about 6800 yuan / ton in the short term. In terms of PTA market, domestic PTA prices fell slightly this week, with the average offer price in East China around 4850-4900 yuan / ton, and it is more likely that PTA will continue to maintain a weak trend in the later period. In the ox market, Sinopec’s o-benzene price is temporarily stable, with a price of 6200 yuan / ton. The external price of o-benzene fluctuates and falls, and it is expected that the weak price of o-benzene will fall in the future.

III. future forecast

Xylene analysts from business and Chemical Bureau said: next week, we will continue to focus on the progress of China US trade negotiations and the expected fluctuation of crude oil demand due to the weak prospect of global economic indicators. In general, toluene market is expected to continue the shock correction trend next Tuesday.

I. price trend

The market price of ammonium sulphate fell this month, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. On October 1, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulfate was 636 yuan / ton, and on October 31, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulfate was 616 yuan / ton, with a 3.14% drop in price. So far, the ammonium sulfate commodity index on November 5 is 47.56, down 4.04 points from yesterday, 55.25% from the highest point 106.28 (2012-05-24), and 29.77% higher than the lowest point 36.65 on June 23, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: in October, the main factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 500-700 yuan / ton, that in Henan is about 500-700 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 520-750 yuan / ton, that in East China is 530-600 yuan, and that in North China is 460-550 yuan. Due to the lack of terminal demand, the overall price of domestic coking grade ammonium sulphate was lowered this month, and the price of domestic grade ammonium sulphate was lowered.

Industry chain: the domestic sulfuric acid plants run smoothly, the enthusiasm of downstream customers for sulfuric acid procurement rises, and the ex factory price of sulfuric acid rises in the future. Sulfuric acid enterprises often issue early orders, short-term construction is insufficient, and supply is slightly tight. Compound fertilizer enterprises are stuck in consolidation, cost and price decline, and the industry is lack of confidence in the future market. Close to the conference on phosphorus and compound fertilizer, most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in October 2019, there were 20 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, including 8 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 9.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (25.36%), epichlorohydrin (25.33%) and sulfur (19.54%) There are 56 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 29 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 34.5% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are nitric acid (- 30.41%), butadiene (- 19.30%) and acetic acid (- 18.84%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 2.82%.

III. future forecast

According to analysts of ammonium sulfate of business association, due to insufficient demand of domestic and foreign markets, coking grade ammonium sulfate fell this month, while domestic grade ammonium sulfate fell. In October, the market of ammonium sulfate was weak, and the market trend was not ideal. It is expected that the market of ammonium sulfate in the later period will be dominated by weak shocks.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of November 5, the latest price of cyclohexanone in China was 7600 yuan / ton, down 16.02% month on month and 41.09% year on year. The domestic market of cyclohexanone fluctuated at a low level.

II. Market analysis

Products: at present, domestic cyclohexanone manufacturers have made it clear that there are not many offers. The shipping level of enterprises is around 7600-7800 yuan / ton. Most of them supply supporting downstream production demand, and the inventory level is low. South China’s cyclohexanone market is weak in operation, and the weakness in the upstream has an impact. The negotiation reference is 7900-8000 yuan / ton. The buying intention tends to be near the low-end, with more low-cost goods, general supply of goods and limited demand for solvents. The market of cyclohexanone in East China followed up the decline in the upstream market, with reference to 7800-7900 yuan / ton for negotiation. A few of the selling prices were slightly higher, the buyer’s intention tended to be near the low end, and the low price was dominated by replenishment on demand. The downturn in the downstream market had a negative impact.

Industrial chain: pure benzene: Asian pure benzene Market: in January, the sales intention of goods is 615-618 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea. Domestic pure benzene Market: weak situation of East China pure benzene market was sorted out. The negotiation reference was 5150-5250 yuan / ton, some of the buying was slightly low, and the far monthly negotiation was 5000-5050 yuan / ton. Weak external market had a negative impact on the market, and the continuous decline of inventory restricted the market.

Caprolactam: the US dollar market of caprolactam has been kept in order, the offers of merchants have been temporarily stable, the inquiry atmosphere of downstream factories is light, there are not many actual orders in the market, and the main market negotiation reference is 1330-1350 US dollars / ton. Caprolactam liquid market maintained consolidation, and the main real single negotiated price in East China market was 11400-11500 yuan / ton (delivered by acceptance within 6 months), which was stable compared with last Friday. Caprolactam business offer is temporarily stable, the focus of market negotiation is low-end. Downstream just need to buy mainly, the market trading atmosphere is light.

III. future forecast

On the positive side, rigid demand is relatively stable. On the negative side, the demand is insufficient; the market of downstream products is low; the price of pure benzene is declining. The upstream and downstream continue to maintain a weak position, the solvent market demand is weak, business community cyclohexanone analysts expect that the domestic market for cyclohexanone will continue to maintain a weak trend in the short term.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the potassium sulphate market continued to decline in October, with the price falling by about 50-100 yuan. The potassium sulphate sales were not ideal, and the prices were difficult to sell, with obvious stability and hidden decline as the main factor.

II. Market analysis

In October, the demand for potassium sulphate was low, and the market sales was not ideal. The operating rate of Mannheim potassium sulphate industry had dropped to nearly 50% during the 11th Five Year Plan period. After that, although there were ups and downs, it was still at a low level. Although there was no big change in the manufacturer’s quotation, the actual transaction prices of a considerable number of manufacturers were determined by the size of orders, and the prices were in disorder. At the beginning of the month, the price of 50 grains offered by Hebei enterprises was about 3050 yuan / ton, while at the end of the month, it dropped by 100 yuan. Some manufacturers said that the price of large orders could still be discussed. The sales of potassium sulphate in Qinghai’s water salt system is poor, mainly because the low-end of Mannheim’s potassium sulphate is basically equal to it, so there is no price advantage.

III. industrial chain

Upstream: the market performance of potassium chloride is poor, and the demand is not increasing. The unexpected high price of India’s large contract did not have a direct and obvious impact on the domestic market of potassium chloride. The port price of potassium chloride remained stable for the time being, and the transaction was still relatively cold. The only good news was that the market bearish sentiment weakened after the confirmation of India’s large contract.

Downstream: the start-up of compound fertilizer enterprises is relatively low, and the attention of enterprises to potash fertilizer is not high. Even though the signing of large contracts in India has shifted the industry’s attention, the trend of potash hypertrophy remains unchanged, and the procurement enthusiasm of compound fertilizer enterprises is not high.

IV. future forecast

Analysts of the business club believe that the demand for potassium sulfate has been unsatisfactory for some time, and the inventory pressure generally increases. Because of the lack of orders, the quotation is not meaningful. Under the increasing inventory pressure, as long as there is a real price, it can be negotiated. On the whole, the cost support is weak, the demand is hard to get better, the potassium sulfate market hit by upstream and downstream is hard to get better in the short term, at least the high-end price will continue to fall.