1、 Price trend
According to the data monitored by the business agency, on December 31, the domestic carbon black quotation was 7000 yuan / ton, with a slight fluctuation in the price range of 100-300 yuan / ton. This month’s carbon black market mainly fluctuated.
After the carbon black market fell sharply in 2018, it is difficult for the price to rise again. In the first three quarters of 2019, the price fluctuated little and the market did not rise or fall. In 2019, carbon black products in the domestic market fell into a loss, with an average profit of – 200 yuan / ton, the first decline in the past five years. Last year, the average profit was as high as 600-800 yuan / ton.
2、 Market analysis:
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1. Overcapacity. Before 2018, driven by the increased profits of carbon black products, domestic carbon black enterprises expanded capacity in a carpet way but ignored the breakthrough of quality. Under the blind and repeated expansion, overcapacity and low concentration of domestic carbon black enterprises became the main structural contradiction of the industry. There is still a certain gap between domestic carbon black quality and international level. In the second half of 2018, the disordered market competition, high cost and low profit, shortage of enterprise operating capital, weak demand and other contradictions intensified. In 2019, the capacity utilization rate of domestic carbon black industry was only maintained at 5-60%. According to Zhuo Chuang’s statistics, in 2020, the carbon black industry still has a capacity expansion plan of about 580000 tons / ton, and there is no capacity to be eliminated temporarily. Although some carbon black enterprises are temporarily shut down due to various factors, the possibility of restarting at any time in the later period is not ruled out. In 2020, the carbon black industry will face the most severe challenges, such as the endless pace of capacity expansion and weak terminal demand.
2. Low demand. According to statistics, in 2019, the operating rate of China’s tire enterprises is significantly lower than that in 2018. Among them, the average operating rate of all steel tire is 3.66% lower than last year, the average operating rate of half steel tire is 4.51% lower than last year, and the theoretical value of the downstream tire industry’s demand for carbon black is about 116000 tons lower. In terms of rubber products, affected by the decline of automobile sales this year, the orders of rubber products enterprises decreased, some manufacturers stopped production more in this year, and the overall terminal demand was depressed. At present, tires account for about 70% of the total supply market of carbon black. When negotiating with carbon black enterprises for new single price, most of them are bidding or pricing according to formula. There are more carbon black suppliers to choose from, and the bargaining power of carbon black enterprises is weak under the contradiction of supply and demand that supply exceeds demand. Under the background of Sino US trade war, EU’s “double anti” policy and large tire enterprises’ overseas factory building, there is still some room for growth of domestic semi steel tire production in 2020, but the possibility of growth of all steel tire production is relatively small. In 2019, the situation of easy to fall and hard to rise formed by carbon black pricing will ease the demand cycle, and in 2020, carbon black will still play a passive role in the bargaining with downstream enterprises.
3. Low price competition is serious. In 2019, due to the low downstream demand, carbon black enterprises in order to seize the market and increase sales volume, low price competition is serious. From the perspective of carbon black market this year, the overall price is much lower than that in 2018. By the end of December, the price of N330 carbon black was about 5000 yuan / ton, down about 1000 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year. The sharp drop in market prices has led to a loss for the carbon black industry.
Fourth, challenges brought by environmental pressure. In 2019, the pattern of large-scale environmental protection has formed and entered the era of intensive cultivation, and in 2020, environmental supervision will be more normalized. In 2020, under the pressure of national supply side structural reform and environmental protection supervision, the construction of main coke enterprises, carbon black enterprises and tire enterprises in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi and other regions will be restricted to varying degrees. Under the deepening of environmental protection supervision, the supply of coal tar and other raw oil is tightened, and the bargaining bottom gas of raw oil purchased by carbon black enterprises is insufficient; the improvement of desulfurization and out of stock devices, environmental protection supervision and production restriction policies will continue to increase the environmental protection cost investment of carbon black enterprises; rubber products enterprises such as tires have limited starting load under the influence of policies such as large gas pollution control, and the bargaining power of carbon black and tire enterprises continues Continue to be weakened.
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3、 Future forecast
Carbon black data division of the chemical branch of the business society thinks: carbon black market downturn will continue at the end of the year.
4、 Development strategy
1. Improve environmental protection facilities, save energy and reduce emissions, and develop green circular economy
Carbon black industry belongs to the industry with high pollution and energy consumption. The energy saving and consumption reduction of carbon black production is measured by the total oil consumption, which is the sum of fuel oil consumption and raw material oil consumption. The reduction of energy consumption in carbon black production needs to be improved from the following aspects: first, carbon black enterprises need to adopt efficient collection equipment to improve carbon black yield; second, carbon black enterprises need to continuously improve carbon black production process and equipment to make full use of the waste heat in the carbon black production process to reduce energy consumption in carbon black production; third, the improvement of production devices such as desulfurization and delisting, and the full benefit of tail gas resources It is also of great significance to energy conservation and emission reduction of carbon black industry; fourth, the improvement of carbon black extraction and reuse technology in waste tires has a certain role in promoting the reuse of carbon black.
2. Industrial structure optimization and upgrading
At present, the industrial structure of carbon black industry in China is characterized by many manufacturers, small production scale, and production capacity greater than demand. In the future, improving the industrial capacity concentration and forming a large-scale carbon black group will greatly enhance the competitiveness of China’s carbon black enterprises in the international market. Driven by the supply side structural reform, the carbon black industry will develop in a large-scale and intensive direction. Carbon black enterprises need to strengthen enterprise management, formulate effective development strategies to realize the effective allocation and optimization of resources, establish effective marketing and information systems, and form the integrated development of upstream and downstream integrated industrial chain when funds and conditions permit.
3. Pay attention to brand building, increase R & D and investment in high-performance and special carbon black products, and differentiate competition
China is the largest producer of carbon black, but there is still a certain gap between the quality of carbon black and the international leading level. In the environment of overcapacity and vicious competition of low-quality carbon black, “win by quantity” is obviously not in line with the development law of carbon black market. There are two aspects to improve the independent innovation ability of carbon black Enterprises: first, carbon black enterprises need to change their business philosophy, increase the R & D and investment of low lag carbon black, conductive carbon black, pigment and other special carbon black needed by green tires, and improve the added value of carbon black products to adapt to the changing market demand; second, the continuous R & D of intelligent integration of carbon black production to continuously realize the domestic market demand The high-tech and market globalization of carbon black production technology focuses on strengthening brand building and improving international popularity.
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