I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride was 2225.00 yuan / ton, down 6.32% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market was temporarily stable, with the potassium chloride commodity index at 70.63 on October 18.

II. Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers this week is temporarily stable: the weekly ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride is 2200 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the weekend distribution quotation of Anhui Badu potassium chloride is 2250 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. This week, the actual transaction in the potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds the demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

III. future forecast

In late October, the overall trend of potassium chloride market or low consolidation dominated. After the adjustment in September, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. However, the market of potassium chloride is facing three major pressures, namely, large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. According to analysts of KCl in business association, the short-term market of KCl is dominated by low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

I. price trend

After entering into September, the trend of domestic liquefied gas market (Shandong) fluctuated and rose. On September 1, the average price of domestic liquefied gas market was 3730 yuan / ton, and on October 16, the average price was 3973.33 yuan / ton, with an increase of 6.52% during the period. Compared with the same period last year, the price dropped by 11.92%, mainly due to shocks, with an amplitude of 11.54%.

II. Market analysis

Entering the traditional sales peak season of “golden nine silver ten”, the domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market trend is as rapid as “roller coaster”. At the beginning of September, due to the slow improvement of terminal demand and limited consumption capacity, it is difficult for the market to get a substantial improvement. The inventory of manufacturers is more than the middle level. In addition, the international crude oil fell for two consecutive days in a week, affecting the market mentality. The Shandong market slightly gave way to profit delivery, and the market was mainly subject to narrow adjustment. In the middle of September, under the influence of Saudi Arabia incident, the international crude oil soared, and the international spot market rose. In this positive situation, the manufacturers pushed up the sentiment, which ushered in the first wave of rising market. From September 15 to 18, the growth rate was 9.12%, and the single day growth rate was more than 4%. However, the sharp rise will be accompanied by a sharp fall. After the Saudi incident, the international market has shown a downward trend, and the liquefied gas market has gradually returned to rationality. And the 11th long holiday is coming, the main refinery storage and discharge demand, continuous price reduction to stimulate the downstream market purchase, the market fell.

With the continuous profits of the manufacturers, the downstream market stock, refinery inventory reduction plan is basically completed. At the end of September, CP issued a substantial increase in October, coupled with the devaluation of RMB, which significantly increased the cost of imported gas, supported the domestic market and strengthened the mentality of the industry. After the holiday, with the liberation of transportation capacity and the opening of a new round of replenishment in the downstream, the manufacturer’s shipment continued to be smooth and the inventory pressure was not great. Sinopec has raised its prices substantially, which has driven local enterprises to keep up with the rise. Moreover, the temperature has dropped after the festival, and the terminal demand has gradually improved, which makes the market usher in the rising market again. However, with the price rising to a high level, the downstream acceptance capacity is limited, and the market transaction atmosphere is obviously weakened. The inventory pressure in Shandong is relatively obvious, taking the lead in the delivery of profits. Other regions have no intention of falling under the support of the main high price.

Saudi Aramco October CP: propane prices are up, butane prices are up. Propane rose to $420 / T, up $70 / T from last month; butane $435 / T, up $75 / T from last month. The c.i.f. cost of long-term propane is about 3737 yuan / ton, and butane is about 3854 yuan / ton.

III. future forecast

Sun Yaolin, an analyst at the business club, said: international crude oil performance after the National Day was weak and continued to decline. With the rise of liquefied gas price, the trading in various markets shows signs of weakening. Shandong market continues to yield profits and the focus of transaction continues to move down. In terms of demand, the weather is gradually cooling down, the downstream replenishment cycle is shortened, and the market is still in the traditional peak season. At present, the air and good factors are intertwined. A small consolidation is expected in the short term. The market trend in the early part of the peak season is as exciting as a roller coaster, but there is still the possibility of rising in the later part.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the market of propylene oxide has been rising recently. On Tuesday (October 8), the average price of enterprises was 10300 yuan / ton, on October 15, the average price of enterprises was 10500 yuan / ton, and the increase of propylene oxide on October 8 was 1.94%. On the 15th, the main quotation of propylene oxide in China was 10300-10800 yuan / ton.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the market of propylene oxide is up in the near future. On August 8, the average price of propylene oxide was about 10300 yuan / ton. During the festival, the downstream demand improved, the manufacturer’s inventory was low, and under the support of raw material cost, the price of the goods was up. On October 10, the average price of propylene oxide rose to about 10366.67 yuan / ton. The manufacturer’s inventory was not under pressure. The focus of negotiation was pushed upward. The downstream was cautious in the operation of propylene oxide, and the procurement was just needed. On the 14th, the average price of propylene oxide rose to about 10500 yuan / ton. Some propylene oxide manufacturers reduced the maintenance load. The price of propylene oxide rose slightly, but the follow-up of new downstream orders was insufficient. On the 15th, a major factory was fully loaded, and the market of propylene oxide was mainly stable, while the inventory of some factories was low, and the quotation was raised. As of the 15th, the cash delivery price of Shandong mainstream market of Wanhua chemical is 10500 yuan / ton, and that of East China mainstream market is 10800 yuan / ton. At present, the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in East China is about 10250 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash; the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is about 10200 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash; the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in South China is about 10200 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash.

Industrial chain: Recently, the market price (10.8-10.15) of the upstream propylene in Shandong increased by 1.52%. At the beginning of October, it was the National Day holiday. Due to the impact of the policy of limiting production and operation, the price of propylene remained stable during the holiday, with occasional downward trend. After the end of the policy, most of the initial prices remained stable. On the 10th and 11th, the prices of enterprises rose. On the 12th, the prices stabilized. On the 13th, 14th and 15th, they all rose slightly. At present, the market turnover is about 7500-7700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7500 yuan / ton. On the 15th, the market situation of the downstream polyether market was stable for the time being, with the positive shipping mentality of the shippers as the main factor and a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The downstream market of n-propanol was stable on May 15.

3. Future forecast:

Propylene oxide analysts believe that the raw material propylene rose slightly, with strong cost support. The maintenance and load reduction of some propylene oxide manufacturers is an important factor in the rise of propylene oxide. However, the pressure purchasing of downstream plants is still weak to digest high price raw materials, and the space for propylene oxide to continue to rise is restricted by the lack of downstream gas buying. It is expected that in the short term, the epoxy propane market will maintain a stalemate finishing pattern.

I. trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the domestic cobalt price fell sharply after the festival. As of October 14, the price of cobalt was 286500.00 yuan / ton, down 4.61% from the average price of 300333.34 yuan / ton on October 1. The poor performance of new energy vehicles in September triggered panic in cobalt market, and the price of cobalt fell.

II. Market analysis

1. The rise of international cobalt price slows down

MB cobalt price tends to stabilize

It can be seen from the table that the price of MB cobalt rose slightly in October, while the international cobalt price is still in the rising stage, but the driving effect of international cobalt price on domestic cobalt market is weakened, and the domestic cobalt price has lost the momentum of rising.

Increase of cobalt price in LME Market

It can be seen from the figure that the price of cobalt in LME market has fallen in shock since the end of September. The fall of international cobalt price is bad for domestic cobalt price, and the downward pressure of domestic cobalt market has increased.

Sales of new energy vehicles fell 16% year on year in September

According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in September was 80000, down 34.2% year-on-year, which has been down for three consecutive months. From January to September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 872000, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, and the growth rate was significantly lower than that from January to August. In September, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 63000, a year-on-year decrease of 33.1%; the sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 17000, a year-on-year decrease of 38.4%. From January to September, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 692000, a year-on-year decrease of 27.8%; the sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 179000, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%; the sales volume of fuel cell vehicles was 1251, a year-on-year increase of 7.6 times. The sales volume of new energy vehicles fell for three months in a row, with an increasing trend of decline. The sales volume of new energy vehicles did not recover continuously. There was a certain negative voice in the market, and the prospect of new energy vehicles in cobalt city was expected to decrease in the future. Future demand is expected to decline, which is bad for the cobalt market.

III. future prospects

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business club, believes that the rise of international cobalt price will not fall again, which will have a negative impact on domestic cobalt market, and the domestic cobalt price is under pressure. In terms of demand, new energy vehicles fell sharply year on year for three consecutive months. The market of new energy vehicles did not improve and the decline was expanding, which triggered panic in the domestic cobalt market, and the domestic cobalt price fell sharply. But in the future, new energy vehicles are still the trend in the future. 5g products are full of growth momentum. The supply agreement between Glencore and Greenwich makes the supply gap caused by the reduction of production increase. The reduction of market mobile cobalt inventory has a certain positive impact on cobalt price. Generally speaking, cobalt market has no obvious upward momentum in the near future, and the downward pressure is increasing, but the prospect of future cobalt market is still promising, and the increase of cobalt cost also determines the limited space for cobalt price to fall, and it is expected that the future cobalt price will fluctuate broadly and maintain stability.

I. price trend

This week (10.7-10.12) domestic 1 antimony ingot prices fell, the domestic market average price at the beginning of the week at 39750 yuan/ton, weekend average price at 40750 yuan/ton, up 2.52%.

On October 11, the Sb Commodity Index was 56.73, up 0.7 points from yesterday, down 44.56% from its peak of 102.32 points in the cycle (2012-10-16), and up 20.75% from its low of 46.98 points on December 24, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-08 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Upstream and downstream: on Wednesday, antimony oxide followed the trend of antimony ingot to stop falling and stabilize. This week, the price rose and trading was limited. As of Friday, the average price of antimony trioxide was 99.5% at 3450 yuan/ton and 99.8% at 3600 yuan/ton.

Domestic market: In the first trading week after the festival, the antimony ingot Market is quite confident. Most manufacturers’quotations have been raised, boosted by the 60-day overhaul plan of major domestic factories. The overall price of antimony ingot has risen by about 1000 yuan/ton this week, and the market turnover is still acceptable. By the end of the weekend, 2_low bismuth antimony ingots were 39500 yuan/ton, 1_antimony ingots were 40000 yuan/ton, 0_antimony ingots were 41000 yuan/ton, and 2_high bismuth antimony ingots averaged 38000 yuan/ton.

Non-ferrous industry: The market has just come back from the National Day holiday with weak performance of important economic data in Europe and the United States. The Federal Reserve is expected to further cut interest rates. The US index is hovering near the 99-point high. Domestic metal pressures are in the first place. However, with the opening of a new round of high-level trade negotiations between China and the United States, market confidence has been boosted, and domestic metal performance has recovered some of the decline.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

In the next week’s domestic and foreign economic data sets, market expectations are weak. Under the downward pressure of the global economy, the US dollar index may be under pressure. The development trend of Sino-US trade negotiations will also lay the performance atmosphere of the market. Next week, China will face delivery. Metal products will be more led by their basic trends. It is expected that the market will continue to hold firm next week and antimony prices will continue to climb. Ability is still high.