1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride was 2175.00 yuan / ton, down 10.12% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market is temporarily stable, February 21 potassium chloride commodity index is 69.05.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the quotation of the mainstream manufacturers of potassium chloride is temporarily stable: the weekly ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride is 2100 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the construction of Badu in Anhui Province is temporarily stable. This week, the actual transaction in the potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds the demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

Potassium chloride market overall trend or low consolidation in late February. After the adjustment in January, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. However, the market of potassium chloride is facing three major pressures, namely, large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. According to analysts of KCl in business association, the short-term market of KCl is dominated by low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, this week’s aniline continued to rise last week, with the price of aniline in Nanjing at 7300 yuan / ton, up 2.3% from last Friday.

2、 Analysis and comment

Raw materials: this week’s price of pure benzene was 5050-5800 yuan / ton, down 0.56% from last week. This week’s port inventory of pure benzene has not changed much from last week. The downstream starting load of pure benzene is still low, the demand is limited, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is not active. Some northern enterprises are forced by the pressure of shipment to promote the transaction at a low price.

Nitric acid rose slightly this week, with the production price in East China at 1583.33 yuan / ton, up 1.06% from last week.

Product: this week, affected by Jinling parking and Nanhua cargo preparation, the supply of aniline decreased and the price rose, 2.3% higher than last week.

3、 Future expectation

Raw materials: the demand for styrene downstream of pure benzene is not strong, the inventory pressure increases, the operating rate decreases, and other downstream operating rates also decrease. The demand has greatly restricted the pure benzene market. It is reported that in March, Japan and South Korea will have more equipment overhauls and imports will be reduced.

Jinling start-up time is uncertain, the starting load of aniline enterprises is not high, and the supply of aniline is still small, supporting the price. Stable operation is expected next week.

1、 Price data:

2、 Trend analysis

Price: according to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic coke market is still stable. At present, the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Shanghai is 1980 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 2050 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Xuzhou is 1950 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 2020 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Weifang, Shandong Province is 1900 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1950 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province is 1800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 2050 yuan / ton The mainstream price of metallurgical coke is 1850 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang Province is 1840 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1900 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Shenyang, Liaoning Province is 1870 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1930 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Pingdingshan, Henan Province is 1900 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 2000 yuan / ton; Tangshan, Hebei Province The mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke is 1890 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1940 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tianjin is 1900 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 2000 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market in Sichuan is 2130 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Liupanshui coke market in Guizhou is 2270 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Ordos coke market The main price of metallurgical coke is 1550 yuan / ton. The port trades about 2150 yuan / ton of primary metallurgical coke, 2050 yuan / ton of quasi primary metallurgical coke and 1950 yuan / ton of secondary metallurgical coke.

Products: with the gradual improvement of the new crown epidemic situation, the recovery of logistics and transportation industry, the supply of raw materials for coke enterprises has been supplemented to a certain extent, the limited production situation of enterprises has slightly eased, the supply of coke market is gradually recovering, the limited production of downstream steel plants continues, some enterprises just need to purchase coke, and the overall trade and investment of the industry is weak.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are four kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices on February 18, 2020, among which the top three are liquefied natural gas (2.00%), liquefied gas (0.89%) and Brent crude oil (0.61%). There are four kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and the top three products were MTBE (- 4.30%), fuel oil (- 0.89%) and gasoline (- 0.14%).

3、 Future forecast

According to the coke analysts of the business association, some coke enterprises are still in the state of production restriction. With the improvement of the epidemic situation and the recovery of road transportation, the enterprises have successively issued plans to increase production. The downstream steel plants are just short of demand, and they adjust more by themselves. It is expected that the coke market will continue to operate stably in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, as of February 18, the average price of organosilicon DMC market in several mainstream areas monitored by the data is 19000 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as that a week ago. At present, the market is mainly on the sidelines.

2、 Market analysis

Product: at present, the resumption of silicone market is proceeding step by step. The progress of the whole industrial chain is significantly faster than last week. However, the market and trading atmosphere are still recovering slowly. There is inventory pressure on the single plant. The unit operation rate is further reduced this week. Most enterprises still do not make offers, and the prices are negotiated on a single basis. Some enterprises set production by sales. There are only a few quotation enterprises. According to the current market reference price of quotation enterprises, which is around 19000-19200 yuan / ton, the middle and lower reaches enterprises that have returned to work are mainly waiting for their peers to make inquiries. At present, the market lacks substantial large orders, there is no guiding price, and the manufacturers keep a stable attitude.

Operation of the unit: the annual production capacity of Ekin silicon (Jiangxi base) is 400000 tons, and the unit is in the process of shutdown and overhaul; Shandong area: the unit in Luxi is in stable operation; Jinling unit is in the process of shutdown and overhaul; Dongyue has an annual production capacity of 250000 tons, and one set is opened for two sets; Zhejiang area: Zhongtian Dongfang fluorine silicon is in the process of shutdown; 70% of the newly installed units are in operation; Hesheng silicon is in normal operation, and the plants in Sichuan and Xinjiang are not in operation The annual production capacity of Hubei Xingfa is 320000 tons, 80% of which has been started, and the newly increased production capacity has not been released yet; Tangshan Sanyou has one opening, one stop and one stop; this week, the single unit operation rate has been further reduced, and the Zhangjiagang base of Daokangning has a maintenance plan in March.

Industry chain: last week, the 107 rubber market in China was still stagnant, the rate of enterprises returning to work was still at a low level, most of the production enterprises closed the plate, and the superposition of logistics and transportation was limited, which made it difficult to improve the 107 rubber delivery and investment. Under the pressure of shipment, the operating rate of 107 rubber unit in the single plant was lowered, and the quotation remained unchanged, mainly based on the actual single negotiation. It is expected that the operating rate of downstream enterprises will gradually increase this week, part of the logistics will also recover, and the 107 rubber delivery and investment atmosphere will rise accordingly.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that: with the governments in various regions also actively promoting the resumption of enterprises, the resumption rate of middle and lower reaches of silicone enterprises will start to rise in the near future, and the market trend will gradually become stable and clear.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of ethylene in the external market has declined recently. The average price of ethylene on the 17th was $801.75/ton, down 2.64% from $823.50/ton on the 14th, and the current price is 28.80% lower than last year.

2、 Market analysis:

Product: ethylene overall fell today. Asian ethylene market prices fell, with CFR Northeast Asia closing at $737-745 per ton and CFR Southeast Asia closing at $748-754 per ton as of 17. The price of European ethylene market fell slightly. As of the 17th, the price of European ethylene market was FD, northwest Europe closed at $907-918 / ton, and CIF northwest Europe closed at $798-809 / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region remained stable. As of the 17th, the price was US $330-337 / T. overall: in the near future, the European and American ethylene market is generally in a downward trend. The demand of the whole ethylene market is poor, and the market continues to decline. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

Industry chain: International: on February 14, European and American crude oil futures rose for the fourth day in a row. New York commodity futures exchange West Texas light oil futures settlement price in March 2020 was $52.05 per barrel, up $0.63, up 1.2% compared with the previous trading day; London Intercontinental Exchange Brent crude oil futures settlement price in April 2020 was $57.32 per barrel, up $0.98, up compared with the previous trading day 1.7% of the price. The continuous rise of crude oil plays a supporting role in the ethylene price. In the later stage, it is good to support the ethylene price rising, but the recent weak demand and the external market of ethylene fell. The price of styrene in the lower reaches fluctuated and declined, and the price of ethanol remained stable, unable to support the price of ethylene.

3、 Future forecast:

According to ethylene analyst of business Chemical Branch, the price of crude oil has risen recently, which is good for the ethylene market. Therefore, data analyst of business Chemical Branch expects that the ethylene price will keep a narrow range of shocks in the future, not excluding the possibility of rising.