In recent years, the price of rare earth in China has continued to rise, but the market price of some rare earth products is still at a low level.

Recently, the domestic market price of heavy rare earth rebounded. As of the 25th, the price of dysprosium oxide rose by 20000 yuan / ton to 1.61 million yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy rose by 10000 yuan / ton to 1.6 million yuan / ton; the market price of some light rare earth also rose, the price of neodymium oxide rose by 2500 yuan / ton to 286500 yuan / ton; the price of praseodymium neodymium alloy rose by 2500 yuan / ton to 363000 yuan / ton; the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide The price increased by 2500 yuan / ton to 284500 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic price of heavy rare earth rebounded higher, and the market price of light rare earth stopped falling. Affected by the favorable national policies, the domestic rare earth market has improved.

On November 24, the rare earth index was 334, the same as yesterday, 66.60% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 1000 (2011-12-06), and 23.25% higher than the lowest point, 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

In recent years, the market price of Rare Earth continues to rise, the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market rises, the domestic supply policy of heavy rare earth market, the export of heavy rare earth has improved, and the domestic price of heavy rare earth rebounds and rises. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has increased recently, the market trend of PR nd series products has stopped falling, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is general in the near future, and the market price remains low. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controls the sales, but the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future, and the price trend of most rare earths is mainly stable.

Recently, Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs, said that China is the world’s largest country in rare earth reserves and production, and plays an important role in the global rare earth industry chain. China has been adhering to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing, promoting the development of domestic rare earth industry, and is willing to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world with rare earth resources and products, so as to promote China’s economy and the world. Economic development plays an active role. China’s rare earth production accounts for 73% of the world’s total, ranking first in the world and playing an important role in the game between big countries. Rare earth PR nd and Dy TB are mainly used in NdFeB magnetic steel. In addition, recently the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to release the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining and smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The Ministry of industry and information technology of China announced that in 2019, the total amount of rare earth mining and smelting separation was 132000 tons and 127000 tons respectively, while in 2018, the quota of rare earth mining was 120000 tons, an increase of 12000 tons, and in 2019, this The data is the highest since 2014. The supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, China’s domestic demand has improved, and the price of domestic rare earth market has increased.

Rare earth analysts of the business agency expect that the recent domestic environmental protection scrutiny will not be reduced. In addition, the domestic export of rare earth industry will be well supported, and the supply and demand pattern is improving in a good way. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market is still expected to continue to rise, and the light rare earth affected will also have a rebound.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate in this week is stable. As of the end of the week, the market price of domestic ammonium nitrate is 2300 yuan / ton, which is flat compared with the price at the beginning of the week, up 9.52% year on year. On November 22, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 121.05, the same as yesterday, a record high in the cycle, 56.46% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market is stable. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are operating normally with stable supply and stable price. In the near future, the supply of goods in the market is normal and the domestic price trend is stable. However, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has not changed much. The downstream purchase is on demand. Due to the impact of environmental protection control, the domestic downstream civil explosive industry still stops production. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have limited start-up, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is rising. Up to now, the negotiation mainstream in Shaanxi is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2300-2500 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2400-2500 yuan / ton.

This week, the price of concentrated nitric acid fluctuated at a low level in China, with a weekend price of 1650 yuan / ton. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1600 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 1550 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offers 1800 yuan / ton. Anhui Aodeli offers 1650 yuan / ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offers 1600 yuan / ton. In the near future, the operation rate of domestic maintenance devices is high, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the situation of goods in the field is general. The market price of ammonium nitrate remains low due to negative factors. The low price of nitric acid is a negative influence of the market of ammonium nitrate, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate remains stable.

The overall supply of liquid ammonia in the upstream market is relatively loose, and the unit operating rate of the enterprise is slightly higher. The staggered peak and limited production in Shanxi Province and limited transportation in Wuhan, Hubei Province lead to the tight supply of liquid ammonia in some regions; however, the start-up of other liquid ammonia enterprises is still at a high level, and the price trend of liquid ammonia is stable as the liquid ammonia plant in Hubei Province enters the recovery period in the middle and late ten days. In addition, in the near future, manufacturers in Anhui Province have maintenance plans. In the next month, the operating rate of liquid ammonia enterprises will be reduced, and the local liquid ammonia market may pick up, but nationwide, the overall trend of liquid ammonia is still not optimistic. The upstream liquid ammonia Market as a whole has little change, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is stable.

In the near future, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is not getting better, the market demand for ammonium nitrate is limited, the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is high, and the market price of raw materials falls, so the market price of ammonium nitrate loses cost support. Ammonium nitrate analysts of the business association believe that the demand for ammonium nitrate may rise in the later period, and expect that the market price of ammonium nitrate in the later period may maintain a high volatility.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of PTA spot market in China fell slightly on November 20. The average market price was 4791 yuan / ton, down 0.05% compared with the previous trading day, down 29.33% year on year. The main futures market (2001) closed at 4714 yuan / ton, down 26 yuan / ton or 0.55% compared with the previous trading day. Daily trading volume decreased by 240000 to 884400, and positions increased by 8690 to 1504600.

Although PTA suppliers buy back to support spot, but new capacity is expected to restrict its rebound. Among them, Dushan energy phase I 2.2 million tons PTA plant and another 1.1 million tons of lines are planned to be tested next week. Hengli Petrochemical phase IV 2.5 million tons PTA plant is planned to be put into operation by the end of December. The 1.2 million ton PTA plant of Sinopec is planned to be put into operation near December 20.

At the same time, due to the impact of crude oil decline and insufficient cost end support, the closing price of PX market in Asia fell by $3 / ton, closing at $768 / ton FOB South Korea and $788 / ton CFR China. In the near future, some polyester filament specifications in the downstream are seriously damaged. The mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have the intention to increase. Among them, polyester POY (150D / 48F) is 6850-7200 yuan / ton, DTY (150D / 48F) is 8500-8700 yuan / ton, and FDY (150D / 96F) is 6950-7400 yuan / ton. However, the downstream texturing and weaving enterprises are relatively cautious, and the transaction atmosphere has not been significantly improved. The comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is maintained around 75%.

Xia Ting, a business analyst, believes that the current spot is still tight, but due to the news of new production capacity and weak trend of raw material market, PTA market volatility is mainly weak in the short term.

I. price trend

Titanium dioxide prices fell this week, according to commodity data monitoring. At the beginning of the week, the average price of titanium dioxide in China was 15833.33 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average price was 15266.67 yuan / ton. The price fell by 3.58% in the week.

On November 15, the titanium dioxide commodity index was 72.48, down 0.79 points from yesterday, down 27.52% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-04), and up 40.25% from the lowest point of 51.68 on December 29, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: in November, titanium dioxide market gradually entered the off-season, and the price of titanium dioxide fell this week. The price of domestic rutile titanium dioxide is 14500-15500 yuan / ton, that of anatase titanium dioxide is 12500-14000 yuan / ton, and that of chlorination titanium dioxide is 18500-20000 yuan / ton. Downstream demand is light, titanium dioxide market as a whole is in a weak downward state. The prices of raw materials titanium ore and natural gas are going up, and titanium dioxide enterprises are under great cost pressure. The enterprises may limit production or enter into maintenance ahead of time. Different enterprises have different situations, and the actual transaction is a single negotiation.

Industry chain: the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region has been stable this week. The market price of imported titanium ore is high and the supply is reduced. This week, Panzhihua titanium ore price consolidation mainly. At present, the price of 38 titanium ore excluding tax is 830-860 yuan / ton. The price of 46, 10 titanium ores is 1260-1350 yuan / ton, excluding tax. The price of 47 and 20 mines is about 1300-1350 yuan / ton. In the short term, the price of titanium ore is mainly stable.

III. future forecast

Titanium dioxide analyst of business association thinks: the northern region is gradually turning cold, and the demand is gradually shrinking. The current demand market is not optimistic. The price of raw materials titanium ore and natural gas went up, and the cost pressure of titanium dioxide enterprises was high. In the short term, the price of titanium dioxide is stable, and the actual operation is based on a single task.

I. price trend

According to the sample data monitored by the business association, as of November 19, the average price of domestic BDO market was 9680 yuan / ton, with a 1.68% increase on a month on month basis and a 8.68% decrease on a year-on-year basis.

II. Market analysis

Product: the golden nine silver ten is fleeting. In the first half of November, the market news was relatively calm, and the factory’s intention to support the market was high. In addition to the demand for PBT in the downstream, other overall demand was weak, and the focus of on-site negotiation was rigid and consolidated. However, after the BDO industry meeting, Xinjiang Meike first raised its listing price on Friday (11.15), and there was another wave of listing tide in the market. The main factories are releasing listing information one after another to unify market pricing. The listed factories include Xinjiang Meike, Shaanxi Shanhua, Inner Mongolia Dongyuan and Xinjiang Tunhe. There is no clear news before the deadline of other factories. As of November 18, the price of the mainstream bulk water supply in the East China market of BDO in China is 8900-9500 yuan / ton, which is hard to find at a low price.

In terms of market, the BDO market in North China is waiting to be sorted out, the listing information of the factory is released one after another, the downstream market is more cautious, and the focus of on-site transaction is temporarily stable. The BDO market in East China is in a stalemate and consolidation. Following the listing of Meike, other factories have released the listing news one after another. At present, the factory inventory is not under pressure, and the attitude of supporting the market continues. The downstream enters the market on demand, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The BDO market in South China has been operating steadily, the on-site starting load has been steadily increased, the price keeping intention of suppliers has been rising, and the enthusiasm of downstream market entry has been declining. Just in need of placing an order to make up the position, the on-site transaction center is higher.

Industry chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol prices of enterprises in the northwest and upper reaches of the mainland were firm at the beginning of the week, some of which were stopped in succession, and Shandong and North China also maintained a steady upward trend; however, futures prices fell overnight and then hit a new low, the port supply was difficult to digest, and there was still room for subsequent arrivals to increase, with obvious differences in market mentality in the early days. At present, the arbitrage window between the mainland and the port continues to close, and both traders and downstream stocks are not high. It is expected that the short-term market between the mainland and the port will continue the trend of differentiation, and the mainland will also present the trend of regional differentiation due to different demand, but the overall trend will remain weak.

Calcium carbide: the domestic calcium carbide market has been reduced regionally. At present, the shipment pressure in Inner Mongolia is increasing, but the current price is low, and the market wait-and-see is aggravated by the impact of cost. Some enterprises in Ningxia are down regulated, and the purchase price of sufficient goods in Shanxi is down regulated. It is expected that there will be a regional down regulation in domestic calcium carbide Market in the near future.

III. future forecast

On the whole, the cost side support is weak. Although the supply side support is weaker than that in the earlier stage, most of the main factories are listed at the same price at present. In addition, the inventory is not under pressure. The intention of the supplier to hold up the price this time is rising. The load of the downstream PBT factory is steadily increasing, and the demand side is supported to a certain extent, but the resistance to the manufacturer’s listing is high. BDO analysts predict that the short-term domestic BDO market will be strong, focusing on factory settlement and downstream demand changes.