First, the price trend
According to the data monitoring, the zinc price oscillated and fell in March. This week, the price of zinc fluctuates and the overall decline is slight. As of March 23, the zinc price was RMB 24,772.50/ton, which was a drop of 6.08% from the price at the beginning of the month. Compared to the beginning of the week (March 19), the zinc price was down by 0.55% from RMB 24910.00/ton, which was a year-on-year increase of 5.41%.
Second, the market trend analysis
Products: Shanghai Futures Exchange futures prices of zinc futures on March 23, 24690-24730 yuan / ton, the price fell, the London LME market futures zinc March 23 closing price of 3203 US dollars / ton, compared to March 1 closing price of 3,407 US dollars / Ton, the price dropped by 204 USD/ton. The price dropped significantly.
Inventory: As of March 23, the futures zinc futures stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 45,422 tons, a decrease of 2,672 tons from the 48,094 tons of zinc stocks on March 19 at the beginning of the week, a decrease of 5.56%. Futures zinc stocks fell significantly, and futures zinc transactions were generally active. London LME market zinc ingot stocks of 211,225 tons, an increase of 5,100 tons, an increase of 2.47% compared with the inventory of 206,125 tons at the beginning of the week.
Industrial chain: Since the New Year’s Day in 2018, galvanized sheet has been in a downward trend. As of March 23, the galvanized sheet has dropped by 4.00%. The price of galvanized plates fell, and the demand for zinc decreased. This has negative effect on the zinc market.
International: According to data released by the Kazakhstan Statistical Commission, the country’s refined zinc production rose by 2.4% year-on-year in January-February. The increase in refined zinc production will have a positive effect on the zinc market. Morgan Stanley raised its price forecasts for copper, nickel and zinc in 2018 and stated that aluminum is the current preferred metal.
Peru’s Minister of Energy and Mines Angela Grossheim revealed that Peru will start 9 new mining projects in 2018. After the project is completed and put into operation, Peru’s iron ore production will increase by 170%, copper will increase by 18%, and molybdenum will increase by 12%. %, zinc increased by 5%, silver rose by 7%. In 2017, Peru’s iron ore production was 8.8 million tons, manganese was 1,133 tons, lead was 307,000 tons, zinc was 1.47 million tons, tin was 17.80 million tons, molybdenum was 28,100 tons, cadmium was 797 tons, arsenic was 22,000 tons, and helium was 124 tons. 151 tons of gold and 4,300 tons of silver.
Third, the market outlook
This week, domestic zinc prices fluctuate and the overall price has declined slightly. The recent zinc price has basically recovered to 2017 levels. Recently, the downstream market needs to perform weakly on zinc, and zinc trading activity has declined. The procurement of zinc by enterprises is mainly based on basic demand procurement, and the overall zinc market is weak. However, despite the recent sharp decline in zinc prices, but globally, in 2018, zinc is still in short supply. The recent increase in the supply of zinc and the weakening of demand have affected both, and even in a short period of time zinc is in an oversupply situation, prompting the recent sharp decline in zinc prices. With the gradual recovery of the downstream market, the zinc price is bound to usher in a small growth peak. Business analysts believe that: at this stage, demand does not meet expectations, supply has improved, supply shortages have eased, but overall, the basic status quo of global zinc supply has not yet been improved, the market is still in short supply, and at this stage Downstream consumption and international environmental impact will be improved after March. It is expected that the zinc market may usher in an inflection point in April.
