According to Hart Energy News, the latest analysis by Stratas Advisors shows that despite the slowdown in global gasoline sales growth, global gasoline demand is expected to continue to grow by 2020.

The number of newly registered vehicles is larger than that of scrapped vehicles. Stratas Advisors predicts that gasoline production will continue to grow as new gasoline production comes online in the next few years and as global refining capacity continues to invest and expand.

Christopher Brown, manager of Stratas Advisors Global Automotive Services, said: “In the short term, new registrations in the automotive industry are closely related to macroeconomic indicators. We have seen a slight decrease in the number of new car registrations in the world, and their economies have stabilized or begun to retreat.

He added: “Vehicle growth, power system changes and economic prospects will all affect gasoline demand across the country. Globally, vehicle dynamic changes tend to be slower than new vehicle registration, so slowing down new vehicle registration does not necessarily mean that the country’s total demand for gasoline is declining.

According to Dow Jones Sao Paulo, Brazil’s oil production declined in January compared with last month as two production platforms were shut down for maintenance reasons.

Brazil’s National Petroleum Administration (ANP) said Thursday that daily oil production fell by 2.2% to 2.6 million barrels in January and natural gas production dropped by 0.4% to 113 million cubic meters. According to ANP, oil production increased by 0.6% compared with January 2018, and natural gas production increased by 0.7% over the same period.

According to ANP, the offshore production platforms of P-74 and FPSO Cidade So Paulo in Buzios and Sapiinhoa oilfields closed for maintenance in January this year.

In January this year, Brazil’s daily production of the subsalt oil field dropped 2.7% from December last year to 1.8 million barrels.

Price Trend

According to data from business associations, the average price of n-butanol as of March 6 was 7016.67 yuan/ton (including tax). At present, the mainstream domestic price of n-butanol is 6900-7100 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Downstream start high, n-butanol market stable operation, low-end price smooth transaction, the recent overall supply and demand balance.

3. Future Market Forecast

Forecast: In the short term, the stability of n-butanol market is dominant.

The big import contract of potassium chloride in 2018 has many “conditions” in itself, which makes it more difficult to forecast the big import contract in 2019. First, the big contract of 2018 is not only signed in the second half of the year, but also two months later than the previous two years; secondly, not only later than India, but also the price is equal to India; thirdly, unlike other suppliers, the supply time of potassium and black potassium is only signed until the end of 2018. It can be seen that the big contract of 2018 has a bit of confusing flavor. The author has limited ability. In fact, I don’t want to think too much about the big contract of 2019 too early. But recently, there are rumors that foreign businessmen are going to raise us another 60 dollars. Think about it, I’d better simply say that.

Firstly, there is no official report on this matter, so it is likely to be just a false or misinformed news! ___________ It’s false news, maybe it’s the recent fall of potassium chloride, so some shippers put out this news to disturb the market’s eyes, hoping to stabilize the decline; it’s a misinformation, who mentioned that the big contract in 2018 rose by 60 dollars, but somebody thought it was the big contract in 2019, after all, it’s now 2019, or maybe someone mentioned our country. C.I.F. prices are 50 to 60 dollars lower than the high-end prices in the international market, and then the people who hear think foreigners are going to give us another raise. In short, no matter what the misinformation is, it is likely to be false in the end.

Second, even if we have to talk about it, why is it up by $60? At the time of signing the big contract in 2018, the price of $290 was equivalent to the apparent cost of 62% of white potassium in the port, which was about 2,370 yuan, while the market price at that time was close to 2,500 yuan, which had risen all the way from a slightly lower level of 2,200 yuan in May. But now the price of 62% white potassium in the port has fallen to about 2400 yuan, from December to now, and it is still possible to continue. How can the price of white potassium increase by 60 dollars in this case?

Moreover, the price of the international potash fertilizer market as a whole has been quiet for a whole quarter, and there were some signs of a slight decline last week. How can we possibly increase another $60 even if they don’t fall in the face of the $350 of Brazilian Granules and the $300-305 of Southeast Asian Standard Potassium?

Third, domestic competition is fierce, but international competition is not ambiguous! At present, the international potash fertilizer market is still oversupply after all, and the previous price increases have made the producers taste sweet, and have accelerated the construction of new projects. It is said that in 2019, many domestic traders want to “promote” to the front line, even if they lose a little, they may have to do a large share. A similar situation is bound to emerge in the international market. In the big contract negotiations in 2019, foreign businessmen are not necessarily monolithic!

In fact, there are some details that I did not mention, such as the domestic potassium production plan, apparent consumption changes, etc., but at least for now, the negotiation of the large potassium chloride contract in 2019 has neither reached the time of the talks nor can it be a rise of $60. For potassium chloride, which has fallen more than expected after the Spring Festival, it is unrealistic to expect big contract negotiations to rescue the market at this time, and it is unrealistic to expect an outbreak of demand. It’s warm this spring, but it’s cold this spring. Only when everyone sweats and digests the excess pressure, can potassium chloride regain its fitness.

On March 1, Reuters reported that Venezuela’s oil exports fell by 40% in the first month after the United States imposed sanctions to overthrow Socialist President Nicolas Maduro, according to data from state-owned oil companies PDVSA and Refinitiv Eikon.

On 28 January, President Trump’s government banned American customers from paying for Venezuelan oil until a new government was formed by the head of state, Juan Guaido.

Data show that Venezuela’s exports of crude oil and fuel have since fallen to 920,000 barrels a day (bpd). Data show that crude oil and fuel exports in the first three months ranged from 1.47 million barrels to 1.66 million barrels.

Since January 28, nearly 70% of Venezuela’s oil shipments have been concentrated in PDVSA customers in Asia, with India ranking first among the top destinations, followed by Singapore and China. Singapore is a hub for storage, transshipment and re-export.

Data show that before the sanctions, Europe imported a small amount of Venezuelan oil, accounting for 15%, followed by the United States, 11%, and the Caribbean region, accounting for 2%.

PDVSA exports 675,000 barrels of crude oil and 245,000 barrels of fuel per day, compared with 1.28 million barrels to 1.46 million barrels per day and 200,000 barrels per day before manufacturing. These figures do not include goods that have been shipped but are trapped at sea.

Venezuela’s oil minister, Manuel Quevedo, said at a meeting in Saudi Arabia on Thursday that “PDVSA (and) the whole country has been brutally hit by the U.S. government, seriously affecting the company’s finances and operations.”

PDVSA has increased the scale of crude oil for fuel, trading with customers and trading companies to prevent oil from flowing to foreign markets during the sanctions period.

At least 1 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil and finished oil are expected to be delivered in March, according to a review by Reuters of tankers waiting to be loaded or arriving at the port of PDVSA.

PDVSA’s purchases of gasoline, diesel, diluted naphtha and other fuels have increased to meet most of the country’s consumption after tankers carrying imported fuels were forced to emit under uncertainties caused by U.S. sanctions.

Throughout the month after the sanctions, PDVSA imported 165,000 barrels of fuel a day, mainly from the United States and Europe. The sanctions prohibit the United States from exporting excess Venezuelan oil to an exportable grade of diluent, but allow the sale of other fuels to Venezuela in the coming months.

PDVSA said Thursday it has enough fuel for domestic consumption and will develop a special gasoline supply plan during the carnival holiday. But no specific information was disclosed.

Venezuela imported more than 300,000 barrels of fuel a day in December, an all-time high, due to insufficient capacity of its refineries to produce gasoline and other automotive fuels. During 2018, the company imported about 200,000 barrels of fuel a day.

In recent weeks, Venezuela has been paying high prices for fuel purchased, mainly by trading companies, Russian Petroleum Corporation and Spanish company Repsol, which can continue to trade gasoline for Venezuelan crude oil under pre-sanctions agreements.