The big import contract of potassium chloride in 2018 has many “conditions” in itself, which makes it more difficult to forecast the big import contract in 2019. First, the big contract of 2018 is not only signed in the second half of the year, but also two months later than the previous two years; secondly, not only later than India, but also the price is equal to India; thirdly, unlike other suppliers, the supply time of potassium and black potassium is only signed until the end of 2018. It can be seen that the big contract of 2018 has a bit of confusing flavor. The author has limited ability. In fact, I don’t want to think too much about the big contract of 2019 too early. But recently, there are rumors that foreign businessmen are going to raise us another 60 dollars. Think about it, I’d better simply say that.
Firstly, there is no official report on this matter, so it is likely to be just a false or misinformed news! ___________ It’s false news, maybe it’s the recent fall of potassium chloride, so some shippers put out this news to disturb the market’s eyes, hoping to stabilize the decline; it’s a misinformation, who mentioned that the big contract in 2018 rose by 60 dollars, but somebody thought it was the big contract in 2019, after all, it’s now 2019, or maybe someone mentioned our country. C.I.F. prices are 50 to 60 dollars lower than the high-end prices in the international market, and then the people who hear think foreigners are going to give us another raise. In short, no matter what the misinformation is, it is likely to be false in the end.
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Second, even if we have to talk about it, why is it up by $60? At the time of signing the big contract in 2018, the price of $290 was equivalent to the apparent cost of 62% of white potassium in the port, which was about 2,370 yuan, while the market price at that time was close to 2,500 yuan, which had risen all the way from a slightly lower level of 2,200 yuan in May. But now the price of 62% white potassium in the port has fallen to about 2400 yuan, from December to now, and it is still possible to continue. How can the price of white potassium increase by 60 dollars in this case?
Moreover, the price of the international potash fertilizer market as a whole has been quiet for a whole quarter, and there were some signs of a slight decline last week. How can we possibly increase another $60 even if they don’t fall in the face of the $350 of Brazilian Granules and the $300-305 of Southeast Asian Standard Potassium?
Third, domestic competition is fierce, but international competition is not ambiguous! At present, the international potash fertilizer market is still oversupply after all, and the previous price increases have made the producers taste sweet, and have accelerated the construction of new projects. It is said that in 2019, many domestic traders want to “promote” to the front line, even if they lose a little, they may have to do a large share. A similar situation is bound to emerge in the international market. In the big contract negotiations in 2019, foreign businessmen are not necessarily monolithic!
In fact, there are some details that I did not mention, such as the domestic potassium production plan, apparent consumption changes, etc., but at least for now, the negotiation of the large potassium chloride contract in 2019 has neither reached the time of the talks nor can it be a rise of $60. For potassium chloride, which has fallen more than expected after the Spring Festival, it is unrealistic to expect big contract negotiations to rescue the market at this time, and it is unrealistic to expect an outbreak of demand. It’s warm this spring, but it’s cold this spring. Only when everyone sweats and digests the excess pressure, can potassium chloride regain its fitness.
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