According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, TDI prices in East China have been running steadily since February. On February 7th, the average market price in East China was 17000 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 17000 yuan/ton on February 1st, with a month on month increase of 1.80%.

Recently, the domestic TDI market has remained stable and we are observing. Multiple sets of TDI devices in the factory have reduced their load, with slow spot filling and a focus on supporting the market. The trading market follows suit and actively ships, but the downstream pre holiday stocking atmosphere is average, procurement enthusiasm is weak, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. Traders are conflicted, and TDI quotations are operating steadily.

The upstream toluene market has slightly decreased. On February 7th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 6850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.44% from the price of 6880 yuan/ton on February 1st. The inventory of toluene at the port has increased and the production has slightly increased. The pressure on the supply side of toluene is still present, and the downstream demand in the off-season is weak, resulting in insufficient support for toluene. Under the influence of weak supply and demand and cost, the toluene market is weak and consolidating.

In the future market analysis, TDI data analysts from Business Society believe that domestic TDI spot filling is slow, factory news is quiet, and the trading market mentality is cautious. Holders offer steadily, and downstream markets are gradually entering a state of vacation. The trading atmosphere on the market is light, and it is expected that the short-term TDI market will operate on a wait-and-see basis. In the future, attention will be paid to downstream restocking after the holiday and the release of news from the supplier market.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic yellow phosphorus market has slightly improved. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 23929.33 yuan/ton last Tuesday, and 24000 yuan/ton this Tuesday, with a price increase of 0.3%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic yellow phosphorus market is slightly upward, and the overall market trading situation is light. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream distributors and manufacturers have basically completed their procurement. The market trading has basically stagnated, and yellow phosphorus is in a state of price but no market. The manufacturer is operating at a reasonable price. As of now, the market quotation for yellow phosphorus is around 24000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of phosphate ore, according to data monitoring from Business Society, the domestic phosphate ore market has remained stable this week, with an average price of 1056 yuan/ton. The footsteps of the Spring Festival are getting closer and closer, and logistics and transportation have also been suspended one after another. Downstream factories are also starting to operate at a reduced rate or enter the holiday season. According to the phosphorus ore data analyst from Business Society, in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will mainly operate in a mild and quiet manner, with limited fluctuations in the market.

In terms of coke, according to the analysis of the commodity market by Business Society, the coke market in Shandong Port has slightly declined. The quasi first level outbound price of the port is around 2230-2270 yuan/ton, and the first level outbound price is 2330-2370 yuan/ton. The port market is operating weakly, and the trading atmosphere in the market is relatively quiet near the holiday. The market atmosphere is more wait-and-see, and actual transactions are limited. On the 5th, it costs 210 yuan/ton from Xiaoyi to Rizhao Port, and 190 yuan/ton from Jiexiu to Rizhao Port.

In terms of phosphoric acid, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of phosphoric acid has decreased. The average price of domestic thermal phosphoric acid market on Tuesday this week was 6410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.3% compared to last Tuesday’s price. The demand for pre holiday stocking is nearing its end, some factories are shutting down, market supply is decreasing, and transactions in the phosphoric acid market are limited.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believes that the upstream phosphate ore market is currently stable, the overall coke market is weak, and cost support is average. The downstream market has basically stagnated. It is expected that in the short term, the yellow phosphorus market will temporarily stabilize and operate, and actual transactions will be discussed on a single basis.

According to price monitoring data from Business Society, as of February 5, 2024, the reference price for domestic n-propanol market was 79.6 yuan/ton. Compared with February 1, the price decreased by 34 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in February, the overall market situation of domestic n-propanol remained stable with a slight weakness. As the Spring Festival approaches, logistics in many regions in China have started to stop shipping and operations, and downstream pre holiday stocking of n-propanol is also approaching its end. The overall market performance is relatively calm, with a small number of businesses reducing the price of n-propanol narrowly based on their own shipments and inventory situation, with a reduction of about 30-50 yuan/ton. As of February 5th, the domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is around 7400-7800 yuan/ton. The market price of n-propanol in the Nanjing area is around 8500-9000 yuan/ton. Dealers in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of future market trends of n-propanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the n-propanol market is quiet, with a calm mindset among industry players and relatively small fluctuations in the market. According to the n-propanol data analyst from Business Society, in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mostly focus on stable operation, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of February 4, 2024, the reference factory price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 3900 yuan/ton. Compared with February 1, the price remained basically unchanged. Compared with January 1 (reference price of dimethyl carbonate is 4066 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.10%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in the first two months of February, the overall market situation of dimethyl carbonate in China was mainly weak and stable. Approaching the Spring Festival and entering February, as logistics in some domestic regions began to shut down and stop shipping, downstream stocking of dimethyl carbonate gradually weakened, providing limited market support in terms of downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate. In terms of supply, in January, some dimethyl carbonate units were opened on site, and the overall supply side improved. As we enter February, there is not much adjustment in the supply side of dimethyl carbonate. As of February 4th, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is based on around 3600-4100 yuan/ton.

Analysis of future market trends

Currently, as the Spring Festival approaches, the overall trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate on the exchange is gradually becoming quiet, and the inquiry atmosphere on the exchange is light. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the dimethyl carbonate market will continue to operate steadily, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of soda ash has been consolidating this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price was 2380 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average market price was 2370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%, a decrease of 12.35% compared to the same period last year. On February 1st, the commodity index of light soda ash was 121.54, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 35.73% from the highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07) in the cycle, and an increase of 92.46% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of soda ash has been consolidating this week. The prices of soda ash in the central China region are consolidating, with the mainstream market price of light soda ash around 2100-2400 yuan/ton. The prices of soda ash in the eastern China region are consolidating, with the mainstream market price of light soda ash around 2200-2400 yuan/ton. Data shows that the operating rate of soda ash this week is around 88%.

In terms of demand: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of glass has slightly increased, with an average market price of 22.23 yuan/square meter at the beginning of the week and 22.27 yuan/square meter at the weekend, with a slight increase of 0.18% and a year-on-year increase of 12.53%. Glass downstream is purchased on demand.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 4th week of 2024 (1.22-1.26), there was one commodity that rose, three commodities that fell, and three commodities that rose or fell to zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main rising commodities include PVC (0.83%); The main commodities falling are: light soda ash (-2.46%), flake alkali (-1.00%), and baking soda (-0.07%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.39%.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyishe, the price of light soda ash has remained stable and stable, with little overall fluctuation in spot prices. On the supply side, there is a high level of fluctuation in production, while downstream demand is not active in procurement. At the end of the pre holiday stocking stage, the demand is average, and multi-dimensional support is needed to replenish inventory. It is expected that the operation of caustic soda in the later stage may fluctuate steadily, depending on downstream market demand.