Although the industry’s capacity utilization rate has decreased this week, the overall supply remains abundant, and with the launch of new production capacity in Jihua, there is still insufficient spot buying gas, and local inventory pressure exists. The market is weak and difficult to change, and it will fall back again. As of August 15th, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup at East China ports is between 8200-8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market is negotiated at around 8050-8150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week.
Capacity utilization rate has decreased but overall supply remains saturated:
During the week, the 92000 tons of acrylonitrile installed by Fushun Petrochemical in the northern market was shut down for maintenance for 45 days starting from August 10th. However, Jilin Petrochemical’s 260000 tons/year new unit was put into operation on August 12th, and the total domestic acrylonitrile production capacity base was adjusted to 5.449 million tons/year, resulting in a decrease in the overall capacity utilization rate of the industry.
However, the weekly production has not changed much, the overall supply is still saturated, the demand for spot goods is insufficient, and the inventory of some enterprises has increased. According to statistics, as of August 14th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories was 72.45%, which was -1.89% compared to the same period last week. The weekly output was about 81000 tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons from the previous cycle. The total inventory was about 45500 tons, which was+0.1 million tons compared to last week.
Downstream purchasing power is still insufficient:
The capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries of acrylonitrile has decreased, among which the capacity utilization rate of ABS is 71.10%, unchanged from last week; Capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises: 76.88%, compared to last week -0.46%; Acrylamide production capacity utilization rate: 47.64%, compared to last week -0.35%. Overall, the operating rate of small and medium-sized downstream industries has decreased, and there is still insufficient procurement of raw material acrylonitrile. The atmosphere of spot transactions in the market is still average.
The price of propylene has significantly increased:
During the cycle, the upstream propylene price significantly increased, leading to an increase in the cost of raw materials for acrylonitrile production. At the same time, acrylonitrile prices fell again, exacerbating the production loss situation this week. According to statistics, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week was 8937 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 2.87%. The average profit of acrylonitrile production during the same period was -632 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of -214 yuan/ton.
Overall, although cost support has been strengthened, Jilin Petrochemical’s 260000 tons/year new facilities have been put into operation one after another, releasing new production capacity, and the overall supply is still abundant. However, spot gas purchases continue to be insufficient, and local inventory pressure exists. Under the game of supply, demand, and cost, the market amplitude is narrow and weak in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 12866 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 12933/ton, with a price increase of 0.52%.
The prices of domestic activated carbon manufacturers have risen this week, with the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranging from 9000 to 13000 yuan/ton. Due to the shortage of coconut supply in the Asian market, market demand has increased, and the demand for environmentally friendly materials in emerging markets has surged. The focus is on market transactions.
Internationally, Southeast Asia, as the main source of coconut shells worldwide, will face multiple natural disasters in 2024. Thailand’s reduced production of fragrant coconut due to drought and pest infestations, coupled with rising transportation costs, have led to a surge in coconut shell purchase prices. The price of coconut shell carbonization materials, including taxes, has exceeded 8000 yuan/ton, and the price of coconut shell activated carbon is under pressure to rise. ‌‌
Prediction: Due to the shortage of raw materials and the acceleration of transactions, it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate and strengthen in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price center of polyester filament has been partially raised. As of August 11th, the POY (150D/48F) quotation of mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is between 6600-6800 yuan/ton, the DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) quotation is between 7800-8050 yuan/ton, and the FDY (150D/96F) quotation is between 6900-7200 yuan/ton.
Over the weekend, the production and sales rate of polyester filament factories rebounded, and inventory pressure eased (factory inventory increased by 8.84% to 19.7 days per week), prompting manufacturers to tentatively raise prices. As August approaches the traditional textile peak season, downstream textile city transactions have rebounded month on month (Keqiao Textile Index raw material prices increased by 1.15% month on month), boosting market confidence. The willingness of major enterprises to jointly reduce production and repair profits is strong, supporting price stabilization. On the demand side, the weaving operation rate is 55.75%, and the raw material stocking days are 9.39 days, still at a low level, but the autumn fabric orders have begun to increase slightly.
Business Society believes that the market is in a game of weak reality and strong expectations, and is expected to operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend. The fluctuation of crude oil has narrowed (Brent $66.59/barrel), and the impact on the cost side has weakened; If the downstream “Golden September and Silver October” stocking is launched, polyester prices may slightly increase.

1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market fluctuated within a range this week (8.4-8), with prices rising within the week and then falling back. As the weekend approached, prices basically returned to the level at the beginning of the week. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4780 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.61% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
This week, most PVC manufacturers maintained price stability, with some making slight adjustments within 50 yuan/ton. Due to the lack of favorable fundamentals, crude oil prices have weakened and fallen, and the futures market has experienced repeated range fluctuations, making it difficult to maintain a long-term strong pattern. After the PVC price rose at the beginning of the week, it stopped rising and slightly fell back, with a weak price and a slight downward shift in the overall range. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the spot PVC market has shown loose supply and demand, and most manufacturers are operating stably. The supply pressure has not changed much, dealers’ offers are generally weak, downstream demand performance is insufficient, downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, inquiry and procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the market atmosphere is sluggish. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4850-5000 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, the calcium carbide market rebounded this week, with a slight increase in prices. According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the increase this week was 1.4%. But since August, the market has been volatile, with a comprehensive increase or decrease of 0. The price is still relatively low, with limited support for PVC.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the PVC spot market is average, mainly due to insufficient downstream operating rates and average demand. The supply-demand pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and it is expected that PVC prices will continue to maintain a range adjustment pattern next week.

Price trend: (8.1-8.7)
First up, then down: At the beginning of the week, there was a brief rally at the end of July, but downstream acceptance was low. Subsequently, supply pressure increased, and companies lowered prices to promote transactions.
Significant decline: According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 7th, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province was 2075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.36% during the week and a year-on-year decrease of 22.28%.
analysis of influencing factors
Supply side: The operating rate has rebounded, and inventory pressure has become apparent
Device dynamics: Enterprise production has rebounded, and the overall industry production has risen to around 80%, with loose supply.
Inventory pressure: Downstream procurement is weak, companies are reducing prices to reduce inventory, and some manufacturers are experiencing slightly slower inventory pressure.
Cost side: methanol drops, liquid chlorine rises, insufficient cost support
The inventory of methanol at the port is high, and the market fluctuated weakly during the week. As of August 7th, the benchmark price of methanol at Shengyi Society was 2383.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42% during the week.
Liquid chlorine: Supply in Shandong has tightened, downstream shipments have increased, and prices have slightly increased, but the impact on dichloromethane is limited.
On the demand side: seasonal suppression, with rigid procurement as the main focus
The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream refrigerant, pharmaceutical and other industries is average, with replenishment mainly based on demand, and no significant increase in volume has been observed. Due to factors such as high temperatures and power restrictions, the operating rate in some areas has slightly decreased, suppressing the release of demand.
Future prospects
Supply is relatively loose, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. If downstream demand recovers or exports increase, the market may rebound slightly. Attention should be paid to device dynamics, inventory changes, export order status, etc.