Zinc price in March
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 31st, the zinc price was 23354 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36% from the zinc price of 23438 yuan/ton on March 1st. After fluctuating and rising within the range in March, zinc prices fell at the end of the month.
On a macro level, the disruptive effects of US tax policies have weakened compared to before. At the same time, Fed officials have stated that the job market remains relatively stable and that more time is needed to completely eliminate inflation. In this context, the US dollar index was able to maintain its rebound momentum, thereby exerting downward pressure on metal prices.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, the current zinc ore production is showing a recovery trend compared to the previous period, and there is no clear indication that ore supply expectations will be further disrupted. Against the backdrop of a rebound in processing fees (TC) and accumulation of raw material inventory, the smelting production in February remained at a relatively low level. However, driven by the increase in smelting profits, it is expected that smelting production will significantly increase after March or April. However, the recovery pace of downstream markets after the holiday is relatively slow, coupled with high prices leading to a narrowing of premiums and basis differences.
On the demand side, in the spot market, downstream enterprises have slow progress in resuming production and work, weak consumer performance, and strong market fear of high priced goods. Despite low inventory levels, which have prompted traders to maintain firm prices, the repair of the premium appears to be difficult. Overall, the consumption of zinc in China is showing a weak trend. From the perspective of the operating rate of primary consumption, several downstream industries of zinc in China, including galvanized sheet, galvanized parts, die cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide, have experienced a month on month decline in their capacity utilization rates. This indicates that although the market originally expected to enter the peak consumption season, the actual downstream consumption level did not meet this expectation.
Future forecast
In March, a series of positive policy signals were announced during the Two Sessions in China, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending this year, especially in the main areas of zinc consumption such as infrastructure and new energy, where targeted support measures will be provided. In addition, considering the arrival of the traditional peak consumption season of “gold three silver four”, the subsequent market demand is expected to gradually release, providing upward momentum for zinc prices. Therefore, it is expected that zinc prices will not experience a significant decline in the short term, but will remain within a range of fluctuations.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 28th, the price of 0 # zinc was 23820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.36% from the zinc price of 24148 yuan/ton on March 242.
This week’s market analysis
This week’s weak adjustment in spot zinc prices has led to active downstream purchasing.
Raw material end
With the continuous influx of imported zinc ore, the raw material inventory of refineries remains at a high level, and the domestic zinc ore production is gradually returning to normal operation, indicating a significant increase in zinc ore supply. In view of this, refineries tend to maintain stability or increase prices towards subsequent processing costs.
Supply and demand side
With the recovery of refined zinc ore processing fees on the supply side and high production enthusiasm from refineries, it is expected that production will increase.
On the demand side, the end consumer market continues to recover. The weak trend of zinc prices has prompted downstream terminal enterprises to seize the opportunity of low prices to replenish inventory, resulting in an increase in the inventory of galvanized raw materials. Northern enterprises that had previously reduced production due to environmental factors have now resumed production, effectively driving the overall operating rate to rebound.
Inventory end
Downstream procurement is relatively active, and social inventory is in a state of destocking.
comprehensive analysis
The increasing trend of supply side increment is becoming increasingly significant, while demand is still in the stage of gradual recovery, and downstream enterprises are mainly purchasing at low prices. The state of low-level destocking may be difficult to sustain, and the fundamental support is not strong. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to mainly consolidate at high levels.

This week, the hydrofluoric acid market maintained stable operation. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 26th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 12016.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.7% compared to the beginning of this month (11933.33 yuan/ton).
Raw material side: The market price of raw fluorite remains stable, while the sulfuric acid market shows a narrow range of fluctuations. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still facing many difficulties. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite is tight, and the market is running at a high level, which strongly supports the cost of hydrofluoric acid. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 26th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3775.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.14% compared to the beginning of this month (3660.00 yuan/ton).
The raw material sulfuric acid market fluctuated narrowly. Due to the significant increase in upstream sulfur prices of sulfuric acid and the reduction in production and maintenance of some acid enterprises, the supply of sulfuric acid in the market has been reduced. The downstream market demand for sulfuric acid has also rebounded. Under the expectation of favorable supply and demand, the price of sulfuric acid is trending towards a stronger trend. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 26th, the benchmark price of sulfuric acid in Shengyi Society was 675.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 43.62% compared to the beginning of this month (470.00 yuan/ton). Overall, there is still support for the raw material market, and it is expected that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may rise slightly.
On the demand side: Downstream is approaching the peak season for refrigerants, and some refrigerants are experiencing price increases. Coupled with policy encouragement in the refrigerant industry, demand is expected to achieve substantial growth. Fluorine chemical companies within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. The prices in the foreign trade market have increased, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand, which supports the hydrofluoric acid market.
Market forecast: In the near future, the high prices of raw materials will support the strong trend of the hydrofluoric acid market, and it is expected that the hydrofluoric acid market will continue to operate steadily and strongly. More attention should be paid to the news of leading enterprises and market supply and demand.

Recently (3.18-3.26), the market price of butadiene rubber has slightly increased. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 26, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 13910 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.36% from 13860 yuan/ton on March 18. The price of raw material butadiene remains stable, while the cost of butadiene rubber maintains weak support; The production of butadiene rubber has fluctuated slightly, and the pressure on the supply side still exists; The downstream production is basically stable, mainly providing support for the rigid demand of butadiene rubber. Recently, the supply price of Shunding rubber suppliers has slightly decreased, and merchant offers have been slightly adjusted. As of March 26th, the mainstream prices of Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China are 13800-14000 yuan/ton.

Recently (3.18-3.26), the price of butadiene has remained stable, with weak support from the cost of butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 26th, the price of butadiene remained stable at 11037 yuan/ton.

Recently (3.18-3.26), there has been a slight fluctuation in the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants, with overall construction around 6.90%. Zhejiang Chuanhua’s 150000 tons/year Gaoshun Shunding rubber plant is scheduled to undergo a 25 day shutdown and maintenance from March 26th. The expected supply of butadiene rubber has slightly decreased.

Demand side: Downstream tire production is basically stable, mainly supporting the rigid demand of the butadiene rubber market. As of March 21st, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 8.30%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.9% of the load.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, the price of butadiene will consolidate narrowly, and the cost support of butadiene rubber will continue to be weak; The temporary stability of downstream construction provides some support for Shunding Rubber. With some equipment maintenance plans in the later stage, the supply pressure of Shunding Rubber is expected to slightly decrease. Overall, it is expected that the Shunding Rubber market will consolidate in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market has been consolidating in a narrow range recently. As of March 25th, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6773 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% from March 6th.

Crude oil prices fluctuated upwards. On March 24th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.11 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $72.37 per barrel. The PX market has recently begun to pay attention to the benefits brought by routine maintenance in the second quarter.

The rise in crude oil and PX prices has provided certain price support for PTA, and the spot market is showing a rebound trend. On March 25th, the average market price in East China was 4889 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.98% compared to March 12th. Currently, PTA plant maintenance and restart are carried out in parallel, maintaining a tight supply and demand pattern and maintaining a destocking state.

The downstream yarn factories have stable shipments, with varying shipment situations for different categories, and market prices are adjusted based on the shipment situation. At the same time, the raw material inventory of the terminal factory is basically maintained, and the delivery is slow, so there are few new orders added, and the actual orders can be negotiated. The overall market mentality is cautious, with many small orders requiring replenishment.

Business analysts believe that downstream demand is slowly increasing, and the rise in raw material prices is supporting the cost of polyester staple fibers. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fibers may rise slightly.