According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 31, 2025, the gold spot market price was 918.62 yuan/gram, an increase of 5.33% from the gold spot market price of 872.11 yuan/gram at the beginning of this month (October 1), and a decrease of 6.85% from the gold spot market price of 986.21 yuan/gram on October 21; The price of gold first rose and then fell within the month, reaching new highs in the early stages with a monthly increase of up to 13.08%. However, it began to decline at a high level in the later part of the month, and the overall price is still at a historical absolute high.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of silver market on October 31, 2025 was 11476 yuan/kg, an increase of 5.38% compared to the average price of 10890.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (October 1), and a decrease of 5.89% compared to the average price of 12194 yuan/kg on October 17; During the month, the price of silver first rose and then fell, repeatedly reaching new highs, with a monthly increase of 11.98%. It began to decline from a high level in the later part of the month, and the overall price is still at a historical absolute high.
Since 2025, the price correlation between precious metals and Brent crude oil has shifted from a short-term weak positive correlation to a long-term significant negative correlation.
From the past year’s cycle, gold and silver have consistently maintained a strong positive correlation. The overall fluctuation of gold and silver prices shows a synchronous trend, and their ups and downs are basically synchronized during most of the time. For example, during the upward phase from late October 2024 to April 2025, as well as subsequent fluctuations and further upward movements, the trend directions of the two are basically consistent.
Reasons for the record high prices of precious metals in October
In October 2025, the prices of precious metals hit a new high, mainly due to the combined effects of expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, increased economic risks in the United States, global central banks increasing their holdings of gold, large-scale capital inflows, and institutional price forecasts. The specific reasons are as follows:
The expectation of a Fed interest rate cut has been strengthened: the market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, and Powell has also stated that there are downward risks to the outlook for US employment and inflation, further consolidating loose expectations. The low interest rate environment has reduced the opportunity cost of holding precious metals, becoming a direct driver of short-term price surges.
The intensification of economic risks in the United States: The government shutdown crisis in the United States has led to the interruption of economic data release, which may also result in a weekly loss of up to $15 billion in output for the US economy. At the same time, the weak job market, coupled with trade frictions caused by tariff policies, has intensified market concerns about economic recession, and investors have flocked to safe haven assets such as gold.
Global central banks continue to increase their holdings of gold: In the first half of 2025, global central banks’ net purchases of gold reached 123 tons, an increase of 22 tons in June alone. The People’s Bank of China has increased its holdings for 9 consecutive months, and 73% of the surveyed central banks plan to increase their holdings in 2026. Global central banks have increased their holdings of gold for five consecutive years, diversifying foreign exchange reserve risks and providing long-term support for gold prices.
Large scale influx of funds into the precious metal market: The People’s Bank of China has increased its holdings of gold for 11 consecutive months, signaling the optimization of foreign exchange reserves. Global gold ETF net inflows hit a historic high in a single month, while silver ETF holdings surged by 95% year-on-year. Retail investors also accelerated their entry through futures, deposit funds, and other channels, driving up precious metal prices with a large influx of funds.
Institutional price increase forecast: Bank of America has raised its 2026 gold price target to $6000, while institutions such as Societe Generale and Goldman Sachs have also adjusted their target prices to the range of $4900-5000. The optimistic expectations of institutions have further strengthened market sentiment, prompting investors to buy precious metals and pushing prices to continuously reach new highs.
Shortage of silver supply: The consumption of silver in new energy, photovoltaics, new energy vehicles and other fields continues to grow, while the global silver supply has been in deficit for five consecutive years, and inventory continues to decline. The London silver market has experienced a rare “spot premium” phenomenon, and “one silver is hard to find” in the market, which has also driven the price of silver to rise sharply.
High volatility probability of precious metal prices in November
The short-term decline in precious metal prices is the result of the resonance of factors such as profit taking, geopolitical easing, liquidity pressure, and deteriorating position structure, which belongs to the stage adjustment after the previous rise. In the future, the precious metal market will experience short-term fluctuations, medium-term differentiation, and long-term improvement. In the long run, factors such as the continuous purchase of gold by global central banks to promote reserve diversification and the long-term challenges faced by the US dollar credit system still provide long-term support for gold prices. The main tone of the precious metal market has not changed yet, but without strong bullish support in the short term, the upward momentum is relatively insufficient. It is expected that the probability of high volatility in precious metal prices in November is high.
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