According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of October 27, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 8100 yuan/ton, and as of October 1 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 9566 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 1466 yuan/ton, or 15.33%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the domestic propylene glycol market in October showed a weak overall decline. After the National Day holiday, the propylene glycol market began to run down broadly. As of October 13, the market price of propylene glycol dropped to about 8666 yuan/ton, with a drop of more than 9% on the sixth day. Then, the decline of propylene glycol continued, and the effective support in the field was insufficient. In late October, the center of gravity of propylene glycol continued to decline. The main reasons for the continuous decline of propylene glycol market are as follows:

1、 In terms of cost, in the first ten days of October, the raw material propylene oxide market fluctuated, giving propylene glycol a general support. In the last ten days of October, the propylene oxide market continued to decline, giving propylene glycol a loose cost support. In the last ten days, propylene glycol trend “follows the original downward trend”.

2、 In terms of demand, after the National Day holiday, the downstream demand of propylene glycol has always been average, and the purchase has been cautious. Users have replenished in an appropriate amount, and the transmission of propylene glycol supply and demand is slow. Therefore, in the case of weak supply and demand support, the propylene glycol market price has been adjusted downward one after another.

As of October 27, the domestic propylene glycol market price is around 8000-8300 yuan/ton, and the monthly price decrease is around 1000-1600 yuan/ton. At present, the wait-and-see atmosphere in the propylene glycol market is still strong.

As for the upstream propylene oxide, the domestic propylene oxide market has generally declined since October (10.1-10.26). According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of propylene oxide was 9833.33 yuan/ton on October 26, a decrease of 2.64% compared with that on October 1 (10100 yuan/ton).

Future trend analysis

At present, the downstream demand of propylene glycol is generally boosted, and the supply side shipment is positive. The propylene glycol data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the propylene glycol market is dominated by weak consolidation and operation, and more attention should be paid to the information changes on the supply and demand side.

Recently, the price of the domestic polyurethane fiber market has been stable, and the average price of the 40D specification market was 38000 yuan/ton as of October 26. The spandex industry started at around 6.9%.

Current mainstream price statistics of polyurethane fiber market (unit: yuan/ton)

20D., 30D., 40D

Zhejiang, 38000-43000, 35000-40000, 33000-38000

Shandong, 38000-42000, 36000-38000, 34500-37000

Fujian, 39000-45000, 37000-40000, 35000-38000

Jiangsu, 38000-43000, 35000-40000, 33000-38000

The raw material PTMEG market operates at a high price, and the 1800 molecular weight market offers a price of 21000-23000 yuan/ton. PTMEG industry started more than 70%, but the transportation in Xinjiang is slow, and suppliers still sell at a low price. The pure MDI market has a dip. The overall market negotiation atmosphere is not good. The traders are active in shipping. The market reference is 20600-21000 yuan/t telegraphic transfer barreled self lifting.

At present, the “golden nine and silver ten” in the textile industry is fading away. The downstream just needs to get goods, and the orders are insufficient. At the same time, facing the suppression of the terminal textile and clothing export market, the middle and long term orders are still scarce. At present, about 40% of the round knitting machines have been started, while the warp knitting industry has been maintained at 6-70%.

According to the analysts of the business community, the raw material side pure MDI market fell in shock, and the supporting role was weakened. Downstream commencement remained stable, and demand follow-up was slow. It is expected that the price of spandex will stabilize in the short term and the market will be dominated.

Supported by the recovery of raw material bisphenol A, the downstream epoxy resin rose slightly. According to the monitoring of the business community, the reference offer range of liquid epoxy resin in East China was 20500-21000 yuan/ton on October 8, 17700-18300 yuan/ton on October 21, 18200-18300 yuan/ton on October 24, and the solid epoxy resin market in Huangshan has not changed much at 17000-17400 yuan/ton.

In three working days, raw material bisphenol A corrected 650 yuan/ton, up 4.8%. Since October, the raw material bisphenol A market has fallen sharply, and under the cost pressure, bisphenol A has gradually approached the cost line, prompting other downstream companies to just need replenishment. The market discussion atmosphere has slightly warmed up, and the low level of bisphenol A has weakened and then tentatively pushed up. Business agency data showed that the market had a tentative callback after bottoming out on the 19th and sorting out on the 20th, and the holders pushed up their offer. Although the market supply is uneven, it is difficult to find low price goods, On Thursday, as the mentality of production enterprises became better after several rounds of bidding, the atmosphere of price fixing became stronger and the market price rose. On the 19th, the market offer of bisphenol A was 12900 yuan/ton, and on the 24th, the market offer rose to 13550 yuan/ton.

The epoxy chloropropane market is weak and sluggish, which is bad for the downstream epoxy resin and inhibits the overall growth of epoxy resin. Some units in Hebei, Shandong and Zhejiang are in shutdown state, but the demand side is not good. The downstream procurement intention is not high, so we should wait and see. Only small orders need to be replenished. The delivery of goods is not smooth, and the market supply is sufficient. As of October 24, the average quoted price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 10300.00 yuan/ton, down 5% within the week.

The rising trend of raw material bisphenol A continues unabated. As the auction price goes higher, the sellers are positive, but many new orders are high and the price of epoxy resin is low. The price of downstream epoxy resin is limited. The liquid resin market in East China is discussed at 18200-18500 yuan/ton, and the solid epoxy resin market in Huangshan is discussed at 17200-17600 yuan/ton. At present, raw material bisphenol A is expected to continue to increase slightly, but the other raw material, epichlorohydrin, is still in a downturn and has limited cost support, The epoxy resin market is expected to rise steadily but with limited growth.

Trend chart of price difference between DOTP and DOP

According to the data monitoring of the business association, DOTP and DOP are both plasticizer products, and they are competing products. The difference in price is small. Generally, the price difference is adjusted by fluctuations between 100-300 yuan. The DOTP price is slightly higher than the DOP price. However, this situation began to change in the middle of September. From the middle of September, the price difference between DOTP and DOP narrowed, and from October, the price difference reversed. The DOP price began to be higher than the DOTP price, with the lowest price difference of – 257.5 yuan on October 24. The main reason for the reversal of the price difference is that DOTP and DOP raw materials are different and the price of raw materials changes, resulting in a change in the proportion of DOTP and DOP raw material costs. The cost of DOP increases significantly and the cost of DOTP is relatively stable.

DOTP raw material price trend

DOTP raw materials mainly include isooctanol and PTA. In 2022, the price of isooctanol will fall and PTA will rise. Isooctanol is mainly used to produce plasticizer, and the amount of plasticizer used in PTA production is small. The cost of plasticizer raw materials is mainly affected by the price of isooctanol.

It can be seen from the comparison chart of DOTP and isooctanol price trends that the overall DOTP price trend in 2022 is highly positively related to the isooctanol price trend, and the DOTP raw material trend mainly depends on the isooctanol price trend. The price trend of isooctanol in 2022 can be divided into several stages. In the first and second quarters, the overall price of isooctanol was adjusted to a high level and fluctuated. In June, the price of isooctanol fell sharply; The trends of isooctanol and DOTP are basically the same in the first and second quarters, and isooctanol is highly positively correlated with DOTP; Since the middle of July, the difference between the two trends has increased, and the correlation between isooctanol and DOTP has weakened.

DOP raw material price trend

The raw materials of DOP mainly include isooctanol and phthalic anhydride. In 2022, the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and fall, while the price of phthalic anhydride will rise sharply. The cost of plasticizer raw materials is mainly affected by the price of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride. With the continuous increase of phthalic anhydride price, phthalic anhydride accounts for an increasing proportion of DOP’s raw material cost.

According to the price trend chart of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride of the business community, the price of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride fluctuated and adjusted at a high level in the first and second quarters. In June, the price of isooctanol fell sharply, while the price of phthalic anhydride fell slightly; On the whole, the trends of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride in the first and second quarters are basically the same. Since September, the price of phthalic anhydride has risen sharply, and the price of isooctanol has stabilized. Phthalic anhydride accounted for a sharp increase in the cost of DOP raw materials. In September and October, DOP costs rose, DOP profits decreased, and DOP prices rose.

Future market expectation

According to DOTP data analysts of the business association, since September and October, the price of phthalic anhydride has risen sharply, leading to the rise of plasticizer DOP cost, while the price of DOTP raw material isooctanol was relatively stable in September and October. The growth of DOTP cost was limited, and the change of raw material cost was different, leading to the DOP price higher than the DOTP price, and the price difference between the two was reversed. Both are competitors of plasticizers. As an environment-friendly plasticizer, DOTP’s production capacity and market share have continued to rise in recent years, greatly occupying the market share of DOP. Due to its environmental protection characteristics, the price is generally slightly higher than DOP. Since September, the cost of DOP has increased sharply, leading to a higher DOP price than DOTP, but this price trend is difficult to sustain. With the decline in the price of phthalic anhydride, the DOP price is bound to decline significantly. Because of its environmental protection characteristics, When customers choose DOTP and DOP, price is not an absolute factor. In the future, the DOTP and DOP prices may reverse again, and the DOTP price will again be higher than the DOP price.

Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the price of domestic urea market fell slightly this week, from 2530.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 2506.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 0.95%, 18.17% YoY. On October 23, the urea commodity index was 116.56, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.48% from the highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15) in the cycle, and up 109.64% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Average cost support, weak downstream demand and weak urea supply

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in China fell slightly this week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream market of urea fell slightly this week as a whole: the price of LNG fell slightly, from 6370.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 6332.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 0.60%, 7.88% lower than the same period last year; The price of anthracite was consolidated at a high level, and Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) was 1850 yuan/ton. Upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the price support for urea was average. The price of melamine at the downstream of urea rose slightly this week, from 8250.00 yuan/ton at the weekend to 8266.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 0.20%.

In terms of demand, agricultural demand is small and industrial demand is weak. The production of rubber sheet plants is low, and the purchase of rigid demand is the main demand. The production of compound fertilizer plants is declining, and the demand for urea is weakening. The price of melamine was consolidated at a high level, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was good. In terms of supply, Shanxi has limited production for environmental protection, and the daily output of urea is below 150000 tons.

Urea price may fall slightly

In late October, the domestic urea market may fall slightly. The urea analysts of the business community believed that the price of anthracite in the upstream of urea was consolidated at a high level, and the urea cost was well supported. However, the downstream agricultural demand is general, the industrial demand is weak, and the daily urea production has a downward trend. In the future, urea may decline in a narrow range.