According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has shown a sharp fluctuation trend recently. As of November 25th, the benchmark price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate was 92266 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.15% from the high point of the week (November 19th), a month on month increase of 21.56%, and a year-on-year increase of 14.19%; The benchmark price of domestic industrial grade lithium carbonate trading company is 90433 yuan/ton, up 21.99% month on month and 15.64% year-on-year.
The core driving force for the early rise comes from the continuous improvement of terminal demand
Downstream demand remains optimistic, with overall feedback from the materials sector indicating full orders, and the energy storage sector continuing to exceed expectations. In the first three quarters of 2025, the global cumulative shipment of energy storage cells reached 410.45GWh, a year-on-year increase of 98.5%. Among them, 170.24GWh was shipped in a single quarter in the third quarter, continuing to break the single quarter record.
In the field of new energy vehicles, in October, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, an increase of 21.1% and 20.0% year-on-year. The proportion of new car sales to total car sales reached 51.6%, setting a new historical high.
Later market sentiment fluctuations, lithium carbonate stops rising and returns to decline
On November 20th, the exchange announced the adjustment of contract fees and the establishment of stricter daily opening limits. The sentiment in the futures market has cooled down, and spot prices have stopped rising accordingly. Recent market news suggests that Ningde Times’ Jianxiawo lithium mine may resume production in early December, further putting pressure on prices.
Further cooling down market sentiment through destocking
The 14 week trend of destocking has significantly slowed down. As of the 21st, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 118400 tons, a decrease of only 2052 tons compared to the previous month, including 26100 tons of smelter inventory and 54400 tons of downstream inventory.
Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that in the medium to long term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate strongly under the situation of strong supply and demand. Rumors of short-term resumption of production will still disturb the market, and specific market changes need to be monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 17th to 21st (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port quotations fell from 2020 yuan/ton to around 1995 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.24% during the period, a month on month drop of 11.92%, and a year-on-year drop of 21.76%. Affected by factors such as reverse flow of port goods, the methanol inventory in ports has slightly decreased, but the high inventory continues to suppress the market, making it difficult for the methanol market in ports to improve, and the downward trend is mainly continuing.
As of the close on November 21st, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2601, opened at 2016 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2029 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2001 yuan/ton. It closed at 2004 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 7 yuan or 0.35% from the previous trading day’s settlement. Transaction volume 1085596, open position 1402474, daily increase position -25359.
On the cost side, coal inventory remains at a regular level, mainly for essential purchases, and prices continue to operate steadily, providing strong support on the cost side. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, the continuous external procurement of olefins in mainland China, coupled with downstream demand for rigid procurement, lacks the willingness to actively stockpile goods, and the strength of favorable factors is insufficient. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards negative factors.
On the supply side, the planned maintenance and reduction of methanol production facilities will decrease, while the number of recovery facilities will increase, resulting in an overall increase in market supply. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of November 20th, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at 316.5-317.5 US dollars per ton; The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 88.5-89.5 cents per gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 259.5-260.5 euros/ton.
In the future forecast, the overall profitability of the upstream and downstream industrial chains is weak, and there is no obvious sign of contraction on the supply side, in the absence of substantial positive factors to support it. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market is still mainly weak.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 7005 yuan/ton on November 17th, and the average price was 6990 yuan/ton on November 21st, a decrease of 0.21%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9100 yuan/ton on November 17th and 9033 yuan/ton on November 21st, a decrease of 0.73%. The average price of HDPE (2426H) on November 17th was 7532 yuan/ton, and on November 21st it was 7457 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.00%.
This week, polyethylene continues to show a weak trend, and the market lacks positive support. The maintenance of the equipment has decreased compared to the early stage, and new equipment has been put into operation. In addition, with the increase of imported goods in the long term, the supply pressure has increased. In terms of greenhouse film, demand has slowed down compared to the previous period; In terms of plastic film, demand is in the off-season; Downstream procurement of packaging film is flat, with a focus on essential needs; Insufficient follow-up of new orders by wire drawing enterprises, resulting in weak production; The overall downstream delivery of polyethylene is cautious, with weak demand. The wide fluctuations in crude oil prices have limited impact on the polyethylene market.
The market lacks positive support, and the sentiment in the market is bearish. It is expected that polyethylene will mainly operate weakly.

Recently (11.13-11.20), the domestic EVA market has been weak and declining. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 20th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 10400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.95% from 10500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The demand for downstream photovoltaics and foam production is relatively weak; Domestic EVA equipment still maintains high supply pressure during start-up; In addition, the weak downward trend in the price of raw material vinyl acetate has led to an overall weakening of the EVA market.
Recently (11.13-11.20), EVA production has remained stable at around 8.5%, and there is still supply pressure in the EVA market. During the cycle, the price of raw material ethylene remained stable, while the price of vinyl acetate slightly decreased, and the cost faced weakened support from EVA. As of November 19th, the domestic price of ethylene in Sinopec East China was 6200 yuan/ton, which remained stable compared to the price on November 13th; As of November 19th, the market price of vinyl acetate in East China was 5650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.74% from 5750 yuan/ton on November 13th.
Recently (11.13-11.20), there has been a lack of significant positive support for the demand in the EVA market. Downstream photovoltaic and foam terminal orders have been slow to follow up, and spot digestion has been slow. Some EVA manufacturers have continued to lower their ex factory prices, resulting in a weak downward trend in the EVA market.
Future forecast: Overall, the cost support for EVA will weaken, and the demand for downstream photovoltaic and foam industries will weaken. In addition, there are plans for new equipment to be put into production in the later stage of EVA, and the overall fundamentals of EVA are weak. It is expected that the weak consolidation of EVA spot market will be the main trend in the later stage.

This week, the trading center of the epichlorohydrin market shifted upward and maintained stable operation. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 14th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 11400 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.7% compared to the beginning of this month.
Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: This week, the price of raw material propylene is running strong. There is still support on the cost side, and the center of gravity of epichlorohydrin has shifted upward. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 14th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 5960.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.61% compared to the beginning of this month (6058.25 yuan/ton).
On the demand side, there is a concentrated replenishment phenomenon downstream, and the market trading atmosphere is relatively positive, with an overall improvement compared to the previous period. However, with the concentrated replenishment of downstream products, the market trading atmosphere has turned cold, and companies tend to sell at high prices. Downstream companies have begun to operate cautiously, with limited actual trading and a stabilizing trend in the market. It is expected that the epoxy chloropropane market price will mainly decline weakly in the later stage.
Market forecast: Business Society’s epoxy chloropropane analyst believes that there is still some support on the cost side of epoxy chloropropane, and coupled with a positive atmosphere of downstream centralized replenishment and trading, the market price of epoxy chloropropane will rise. After the downstream concentrated replenishment, the mentality of enterprises has turned cautious, and their confidence in the future has weakened. Market transactions are limited when they are high, and it is expected that the epoxy chloropropane market price will mainly decline weakly in the later stage. More attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.