DOTP prices fell slightly

According to the data monitoring of business society, the DOTP price fell slightly this week, and the overall DOTP market fell slowly. As of December 10, the price of DOTP was 10575 yuan / ton, down 2.98% from 10900 yuan / ton last weekend (December 3); DOTP prices fell slightly this week, and the decline of DOTP market slowed down.

Isooctanol price volatility weakened

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic isooctanol market continued its downward trend this week. During the week, the price of isooctanol factory rose and fell inconsistently. On Monday and Tuesday, downstream customers made up stocks on bargain hunting. In addition, the sharp rise in crude oil price boosted the customer’s mentality, and the price of isooctanol rose slightly; After that, the inventory pressure was released, but the buyer carefully purchased the high-end price in the market, the trading volume of new orders in the market decreased one after another, the negotiation of high price spot was deadlocked, the bearish mentality on the floor increased again, and the price of isooctanol fell again in the second half of the week. Downstream customers generally purchase, the transaction of isooctanol is cold, the cost of plasticizer DOTP decreases, and DOTP has great downward pressure.

PTA prices rose first and then fell

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the sharp rise in the international crude oil price stimulated the PTA price to follow up, and the positive support on the cost side remained. Moreover, the PTA unit was planned to enter the maintenance, and the PTA price increased slightly. However, in the off-season of the PTA market, the demand was not followed up enough, the PTA price increase space was limited, and the PTA price fell slightly on Friday. The rise in raw material prices and DOTP costs is good for the DOTP market.

PVC market fell slightly

According to the price monitoring of business society, the PVC market fell slightly this week, and the PVC price fluctuated and fell this week. PVC disk was weak, futures PVC prices fell, and the spot market was cold. The PVC market fell, weakening the positive and negative effects on the DOP market.

Future expectations

According to DOTP data analysts of business agency, the price of DOTP raw materials rebounded and adjusted this week, PTA price rebounded and rose, isooctanol price rose first and then fell, the decline of DOTP cost slowed down, and the downward pressure of DOTP weakened; On the demand side, the price of PVC fell, the PVC market was weak and downward, the demand for plasticizer was cold, and the downward pressure of DOTP was large. Overall, the downward pressure of plasticizer DOTP weakened this week, the upward momentum still exists, and the decline of DOTP price slowed down; However, the demand for Plasticizer in the future is insufficient, and the future DOTP market is dominated by weak operation.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province has experienced twists and turns this week, with an overall downward trend. This week, the mainstream ex factory average price of isooctanol in Shandong fell from 10933.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 10900.00 yuan / ton on December 6, a decrease of 0.30%, then rose to 11000.00 yuan / ton on December 8, an increase of 0.92%, and finally fell to 10700.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 2.73%, a year-on-year increase of 7.36%. Overall, Shandong isooctanol market fell slightly this week. On December 10, the isooctanol commodity index was 78.68, down 1.47 points from yesterday, down 42.78% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 123.84% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is enhanced and the downstream demand is general

From the perspective of manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong fell this week: Jianlan chemical offered about 10700 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, which fell by 300 yuan / ton compared with last weekend, mainly contract; The quotation of lihuayi isooctanol this weekend is 10700 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng offered 10700 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, down 300 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market rose first and then fell this week. The quotation first rose from 7458.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 7562.17 yuan / ton on December 8, an increase of 1.39%, and then fell to 7505.50 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 0.75%, down 8.15% year-on-year. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, which had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol due to the impact of supply and demand.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the ex factory price of DOP fell slightly this week. The DOP price dropped from 10850.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 10550.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 2.76%, up 9.14% year-on-year over the same period last year. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for isooctanol procurement weakened.

Weak demand and bearish outlook

In mid December, the market trend of Shandong isooctanol may fluctuate slightly, mainly falling. The upstream propylene rose slightly and the cost support was strengthened, but there was a downward trend at the weekend. At the same time, the downstream DOP market fell slightly, the downstream market continued to decline, and there was no sign of improvement in demand. According to isooctanol analysts of business society, in mid December, Shandong isooctanol market may fluctuate slightly.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (December 9): 34333.33 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on December 9, the price of refrigerant R134a fell broadly, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid fell, trichloroethylene continued to decline, the cost support weakened, coupled with weak demand, poor shipment of cargo holders, increased inventory of refrigerant manufacturers, and the price fell sharply. Up to now, the market quotation of R134a is in the range of 29500-40000 yuan / ton, The actual transaction price is lower, and the center of gravity moves down significantly.

R134a market is expected to decline in the short term.

Trade name: monoammonium phosphate

Latest price: 3166 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of monoammonium phosphate was stable on December 8, which was flat compared with the previous trading day. Today, the atmosphere in the first floor was cold and the trading volume decreased. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have weak demand for monoammonium, take a small amount of goods, and their purchase intention is not positive. One ammonium plant shall be subject to single discussion and negotiation.

Future forecast: monoammonium phosphate will run downward in the short term.

Trade name: cryolite

Latest price (December 7): 7275 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the average production price of cryolite in Henan increased by 1.04% compared with yesterday, and the market is running firmly. Cryolite manufacturers react to the shortage of raw materials and high production costs. The cryolite output of enterprises is less, the quotation is mainly high, and the downstream demand is OK. Enterprises negotiate shipment, and the upstream output supports the cryolite market to maintain a high operation.

Future forecast: cryolite market will remain stable in the short term.