According to the bulk list data of business society, the price trend of TDI market temporarily operated stably on September 30. The average market price in East China was 13925 yuan / ton, down 3.07% month on month.

On September 30, the distribution market in East China was temporarily stable, and the distribution market price remained stable. The price of domestic goods was about 13400-13600 yuan / ton, and the price of Shanghai goods was about 13700-14000 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation. Many TDI plants in China have been overhauled, and the supplier has shrunk. There is no inventory pressure for the moment. The TDI plant of a factory in the north is restarted, and Yinguang and Wanhua plants also plan to restart one after another. The supply and inventory increment is expected. At the end of the month, large factories successively announce the closing and hanging prices. The atmosphere in the field is mainly wait-and-see. The downstream is affected by dual control of energy consumption, the demand is weak, and the market trading is weak. It is also learned by the market, The restart time of Canghua unit is uncertain due to steam supply problems. It is expected to wait and see the future market and pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

Commodity index: on September 29, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 99.44, up 0.38 points from yesterday, down 7.18% from the highest point of 107.13 points in the cycle (2019-05-08), and up 19.97% from the lowest point of 82.89 points on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Recently, under the national “double control” policy, the price of chemical raw materials has increased. Under the comprehensive influence of factors such as the substantial increase of raw material cost and production cost, the reduction of spot inventory and national day order arrangement, the market of water treatment products has risen rapidly recently. The manufacturer’s quotation is cautious, the pricing and delivery are subject to the price of the day, and oral reservation is not accepted, but the order arrangement is subject to payment.

Data monitoring shows that in September, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s market was greatly adjusted. The domestic mainstream price was 14750 yuan / ton on the 1st and 16275 yuan / ton on the 29th, with a monthly increase of more than 10%.

Among them, the continuous rise of raw acrylic acid is the main influencing factor. Since the middle of the year, under the influence of the “double control” policy, the operating rate of the industry has continued to decrease, and the spot acrylic acid supply in the market is tight. According to the bulk list data of business society, as of September 28, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 18366.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 24.38% compared with the price on the first day, and a year-on-year increase of 63.50% in a three-month cycle. The sharp rise of acrylic acid led to a significant increase in the cost price of polyacrylamide and a rise in the market; Acrylonitrile, another raw material, has a mainstream market quotation of about 14900-15000 yuan / ton this month, which has little impact on the cost change of polyacrylamide.

Secondly, the recent sharp rise in the market of fuel liquefied natural gas has a certain impact on the market of polyacrylamide. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the mainstream market price of liquefied natural gas in China rose sharply first and then corrected slightly in September. On the 1st, the domestic mainstream price was 6110 yuan / ton, and on the 29th, the mainstream price was about 6126.67 yuan / ton. Among them, the mainstream price rose sharply from the 14th to the 16th in the middle of the year, about 10%, and then the market fluctuated slightly. In about half a month from the 29th, the mainstream price in the domestic market rose to about 6126.67 yuan / ton. On the whole, in September, the increase was about 0.27%, and the maximum amplitude in the month was 5. 35%。 It is reported that, boosted by the auction of feed gas and driven by the cost of domestic liquid plants, the price rose sharply in the middle of the year, but the demand was not followed up enough. After the Mid Autumn Festival, the price of liquid plants was strongly supported. Under the condition of strict dual control of energy consumption and reduced demand of downstream gas consuming enterprises this month, the price of LNG remained volatile and the market was relatively strong, In the future, it is expected that the domestic liquid price will generally operate stably in the short term, but it is inevitable to reduce the price and arrange the stock near the National Day holiday.

As for the future market, the change of downstream demand for polyacrylamide has little impact on the recent market, while the change of cost pressure and inventory is the prominent influencing factor of the recent sharp rise of polyacrylamide market. Under the current situation, in response to the national policy of “dual control of energy consumption”, the enterprise has limited operation, tight market supply and continuous rise in the market of raw acrylic acid; The fuel liquefied natural gas is also affected by the policy, so it is expected that in the future, the acrylic acid market may be strong in the short term, and polyacrylamide is likely to continue to rise in the future.

The plot of aluminum fluoride in September is high

According to the data of business agency, the price of aluminum fluoride rose steadily in September, and the market of aluminum fluoride rose sharply in September. As of September 28, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 10100.00 yuan / ton, up 12.64% from the price of 8966.67 yuan / ton on September 0 at the beginning of the month; The price of aluminum fluoride rose sharply in September.

Aluminum price hit a new high in September

According to the monitoring of business society, the aluminum commodity index was 130.95 points on September 13, creating the highest point in the cycle (Note: the cycle refers to the period since September 1, 2011). After that, the aluminum price fluctuated slightly, but the overall aluminum price remained high. The market of electrolytic aluminum continues to be high, which ensures the downstream demand of aluminum fluoride, and the price support of aluminum fluoride is sufficient.

The price of raw materials rose sharply

According to the monitoring of business society, the prices of hydrofluoric acid and upstream fluorite, the raw material of aluminum fluoride, rose in September, and sulfuric acid, hydrofluoric acid, fluorite and other products rose in late September. The rise in raw material prices and the cost of aluminum fluoride stimulate the rise in the price of aluminum fluoride.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that the new high of aluminum price stimulates the rise of aluminum fluoride price. The price of aluminum fluoride rises continuously in September. The rise of raw material price of aluminum fluoride at the end of September further stimulates the price of aluminum fluoride to climb to a new high. In the future, the price of aluminum fluoride raw materials is still rising. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will continue to rise in the future. However, due to the sound of the film, the commencement of aluminum plants is limited, the future demand for aluminum fluoride is expected to decline, the supporting power for the rise of aluminum fluoride is limited, and it is expected that aluminum fluoride will rise slightly in the future.

According to the price monitoring of business society, the market price of spandex fell slightly this month, and the quotation of mainstream manufacturers was stable and weak. As of September 27, the average price of 40d specification was 80600 yuan / ton, down 1.23% from the beginning of the month and up 143.50% year-on-year. Some manufacturers have production reduction plans, and the commencement of the industry has dropped from 90% at the beginning of the month to around 78%. At present, the supply of goods in the market is stable.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

20D                  30D              40D

Zhejiang 100000-105000 88000-90000 78000-81000

Shandong 100000-107000 90000-92000 78000-81000

Fujian 100000-107000 90000-92000 79000-81000

Jiangsu 100000-105000 88000-90000 77000-79000

The pure MDI market for raw materials rose steadily, and the overall wait-and-see atmosphere in the market was strong. 760% of the industry started, traders were reluctant to sell at low prices, and the mainstream quotation in the market increased steadily. At present, the mainstream reference in the local market is 21000-21200 yuan / ton telegraphic transfer barrel self delivery. PTMEG operates on price, and the BDO on the cost side continues to be warm and well supported. In terms of price, mainstream factories with 1800 molecular weight sources offer around 46000-49000 yuan / ton, and the actual single negotiation refers to 45000-48000 yuan / ton. The industry started 71000 tons, and the start-up increased slightly. Among them, the short-term shutdown of 46000 ton unit of Shaanxi chemical industry has been restarted, 46000 ton unit of Lanshan Tunhe in Xinjiang has been restarted, 92000 ton unit of Sinopec Great Wall energy chemical industry has been overhauled, and 60000 ton unit of Cathay Xinhua in Xinjiang has been overhauled in turn.

Before the end of the month, due to the adjustment of production before the end of the printing and dyeing factory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, the order of some large round machine factories was delayed, so the rate of start-up was reduced to 2-3. The pressure on factory finished product inventory remains unabated. The large amount of raw material preparation is around 40 days, and most factories prepare raw materials around 8-11 days, resulting in low enthusiasm for raw material procurement. In the warp knitting industry, during the Mid Autumn Festival holiday in Haining, most local warp knitting factories shut down for 1-2 days, and the load decreased from 70% before the festival to less than 50% during the holiday.

According to the analysts of business society, in September, the spandex market operated weakly, the supply of goods remained stable, and the cost side support was ok, but the downstream demand was not followed up carefully, and the overall market wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. It is expected that the demand pressure is expected to be relieved with the release of winter orders and the advent of double “11″ and Christmas season. In the short term, the spandex market will remain weak, If the demand side improves in the later stage, the market may pick up.

Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite rose sharply this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite was 2773.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3083.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 12.80% during the week.

After the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, supported by the continuous high cost of raw materials and the continuous low inventory of manufacturers, manufacturers raised the ex factory price of sodium metabisulfite again, driving the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite to rise sharply in late September. This week, the market price range of domestic industrial sodium metabisulfite was 2800-3500 yuan / ton, and most prices were concentrated around 3000-3100 yuan / ton. The inventory of the enterprise continues to be low, the overall supply of sodium pyrosulfite market is tight, and the enterprise mainly completes the orders of old customers. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are not within their scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. Please contact each manufacturer for details).

From early September to 24th, the domestic soda ash price rose by 22.7%, the domestic sulfur price rose by 1.56%, the upstream raw material price rose sharply, and the cost continued to rise, which played a strong supporting role in the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that under the dual support of cost and demand, there is still some room for rise in the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price in the short term.