In April, the domestic methanol market fell significantly, the low level fluctuated, and the price trend curve fell unilaterally. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 3070 yuan / ton at the beginning of April and 2745 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price decreased by 10.56% during the month and increased by 6.81% year-on-year.
According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in March 2022, there were 10 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 9 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 56.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were coke (21.91%), petroleum coke (15.86%) and coking coal (14.06%). There are 5 kinds of commodities with a month on month decline, and 3 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were liquefied natural gas (- 13.45%), gasoline (- 7.29%) and naphtha (- 6.89%). The average rise and fall this month was 5.78%.
Comparison chart of methanol price trend of business society from 2018 to 2022:
Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of April 29:
Region, Price
Qinghai region, No quotation
Shanxi Province, 2480-2510 yuan / ton
Liaoning Province, 2800 yuan / ton to cash exchange
Fujian Province, The negotiation price is 2800-2840 yuan / ton
Two lakes region, Mainstream negotiation reference: about 2730-2950 yuan / ton
Anhui Province, The mainstream negotiation is about 2800 yuan / ton
Henan Province, The shipping price is 2670 yuan / ton
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At the beginning of the month, the rise of the domestic methanol market slowed down, the crude oil fluctuated widely, and the weak demand led to the terminal’s resistance to receiving goods at high prices. The domestic methanol spot market was slightly deadlocked.
In the first ten days of the month, the domestic methanol market fell slightly, the market atmosphere was slightly deadlocked, the traders bought gas in general, and the shipment was not smooth. The support of raw material coal price for methanol production cost was weakened. Although the equipment maintenance of some enterprises was slightly favorable in terms of supply, the downstream demand was still depressed.
In mid June, the domestic methanol market rebounded after falling, and the transaction volume was large. At the beginning of the week, domestic factories sharply reduced their quotation under the pressure of shipment. Due to the low inventory in the middle and lower reaches, the supply was reduced and replenished. The transaction volume was immediately increased, and the receiving price rebounded rapidly.
In late June, the domestic methanol market rose first and then fell, with limited overall volatility. Crude oil and macro atmosphere have weakened, affecting the decline of the futures market. Domestic production enterprises in the main production areas raised their quotations, but the transactions in various regions were different.
At the end of the month, macro and coal price support may be limited. In terms of fundamentals, the supply is still abundant, the marginal demand may weaken, and the methanol market may decline weakly
Monthly K column chart of methanol domestic production price of business society:
Weekly K column chart of methanol domestic production price of business society:
The profits of methanol industry chain rose and fell in the week. Upstream, the profit decreased slightly due to the decline of methanol price. In the downstream, although the outer disk of ethylene is loose, the performance of propylene is OK. In addition, the raw material methanol has fallen sharply, resulting in a large loss of olefin monomers and an improvement in strength; In other traditional downstream, except for the sharp rebound of MTBE price, the prices of other downstream products fell, and the price of acetic acid fell the most; The loss of formaldehyde profit narrowed due to the decline of raw material methanol, the profit of dimethyl ether fluctuated little, the profit of glacial acetic acid returned sharply again, the profit of MTBE improved significantly, and the profit of methane chloride improved slightly.
Comparison chart of price trend of coal (upstream products) and methanol in business community:
Comparison chart of methanol and dimethyl ether (downstream products) price trend of business society:
Comparison chart of methanol and formaldehyde (downstream products) price trend of business society:
Comparison chart of methanol and ethyl acetate (downstream products) price trend of business society:
In terms of external trading, as of the closing on April 27, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was US $419.50-420.50/ton, down US $19 / ton. US Gulf methanol market closed at 110.00-110.50 cents / gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 369.75-370.25 euros / ton.
region ., country., Closing price, Rise and fall
Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, 419.50-420.50 USD / ton, – 19 USD / ton
Europe and America, The Gulf of the United States, 110.00-110.50 cents / gallon, 0 cents / gallon
Europe, FOB Rotterdam, 369.75-370.25 euros / ton, 0 euro / ton
In the future, the price of raw coal is gradually returned to a reasonable range due to policy regulation. It is difficult to have a more obvious recovery in demand in the short term. Methanol analysts of business society predict that the methanol market may still fluctuate and decline.
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