According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of February 18, the average quoted price of silicone DMC in the mainstream area of data monitoring was 21666 yuan / ton, which was 133 yuan / ton higher than that before the Spring Festival (21533 yuan / ton on February 10), or 0.62%; and 566 yuan / ton higher than that on February 1, 2021 (21100 yuan / ton), or 2.69% .

On the eve of the Spring Festival and in early February, the domestic silicone DMC market has begun to rise steadily. The factory’s pre orders are in good condition before the festival, and the confidence of the industry has increased. Since early February, the market has gradually warmed up under the leadership of Shandong’s leading enterprises. Until before the Spring Festival, on the 10th, the mainstream reference quotation of silicone DMC was around 21300-21800 yuan / ton, and the individual high-end quotation was 22000 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the logistics industry stopped operation one after another, and the market also entered a stable period.

Expected to be better after the festival

After the festival, supported by the good demand performance before the festival, the inventory pressure of the factory after the festival was small, the confidence of the industry was maintained, and the sunny atmosphere was good. On the 18th, Shandong big factory made a good start. On the first day of construction, it took the lead in increasing the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC by 200-300 yuan / ton. On the 18th, the mainstream reference quotation of silicone DMC in China was around 21500-22000 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream of silicone DMC has gradually resumed work and production, and the upstream and downstream transmission has remained normal. After the festival, replenishment will be carried out one after another, and the overall market is expected to be better.

After the festival, silicone DMC will continue to rise

Considering the current market situation, the downstream demand of silicone DMC is much better than that at this time last year. In addition, after the climate warms up, the terminal is gradually resumed, and the supply and demand transmission is relatively smooth. Under this situation, the industry is full of confidence. The silicone DMC analysts of the business community believe that silicone DMC will continue to rise steadily after the festival.

Crude oil and gasoline prices rose, but during the Spring Festival, gasoline demand was expected to be poor, MTBE market shipment was hindered, and the domestic MTBE market price rise was less than that of crude oil and gasoline. According to the data of business news agency, the price of MTBE on February 5 was 4700 yuan / ton, up 2.92% from the beginning of the week.

On the one hand, the extremely cold weather caused by the blizzard attack in the southeast of the United States has led to a rapid rise in fuel heating demand. Moreover, recently, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) have continued to effectively promote production reduction, which has brought a good supply side environment to oil prices. Moreover, the sharp decline in US commercial crude oil inventories in the past two weeks has become a direct driver to stimulate the rise of oil prices. International crude oil prices rose sharply this week, with WTI crude oil up 8.91% and Brent crude oil up 7.81%. In terms of gasoline, the weather is getting warmer, and local governments are advocating local Chinese New Year holidays. The terminal demand for gasoline is lower than that of the same period. Recently, the international crude oil price has risen sharply, which has promoted the enthusiasm of downstream customers to prepare goods and pushed up the price of gasoline.

The recent sharp rise in international oil prices has promoted the increase of downstream stock preparation intention before the festival, increased the purchasing enthusiasm of MTBE and other raw materials, smooth delivery of MTBE manufacturers, and actively promoted the rise of low inventory. At present, the price of MTBE is at a high level, and the price of MTBE continues to rise less than that of crude oil and gasoline.

MTBE product analyst of business society energy branch thinks: after the international crude oil price rises sharply, it is likely to maintain a high level, and it is less likely to continue to explore the high level. The gasoline market demand is less than expected, and the gasoline price is mainly stable. It is expected that the MTBE market price will be stable.

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the external price of ethylene has risen recently. On February 5, the price was 969.00 US dollars / ton, and on February 8, the average price of ethylene was 970.75 US dollars / ton, up 0.18%. The current price has dropped 10.18% month on month, and the current price has increased 15.02% year on year.

In the near future, the overall external ethylene market is on the rise. The price of ethylene market in Asia was stable. As of the 5th, CFR closed at US $847-855 / T in Northeast Asia and US $827-835 / T in Southeast Asia. The price of ethylene market in Europe increased greatly. As of the 5th, FD in northwest Europe closed at US $1094-1105 / T, CIF in northwest Europe closed at US $1097-1106 / T. The price of ethylene in the U.S. rose to 760-772 US dollars / ton by the 5th. Recently, the market of ethylene in Europe, America and Asia showed a rising trend. Generally speaking, the demand of the whole ethylene market improved, the market trading atmosphere was warm, and the market rose.

International: on February 5, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $56.85/barrel, up US $0.62. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, the settlement price of the main contract at 59.34 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 0.50 U.S. dollars. Crude oil futures continued to rise on Friday, with Brent oil prices approaching the $60 mark, mainly due to the warming of economic recovery expectations and the continued effective implementation of production control by the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +).

Recently, the styrene market rose as a whole. Crude oil continued to strengthen, driving the price of pure benzene to rise, styrene cost support to strengthen, night futures high consolidation, to bring some support to the spot market. In terms of port inventory, the styrene inventory of East China’s main port this week was 109000 tons, an increase of 5500 tons over last week, a month on month increase of 5.3%, and a year-on-year decrease of 51.8%. At present, the main ports in East China are experiencing seasonal accumulation, with 30800 tons of goods arriving next week. The overall arrival volume is at a low level, and the accumulation is less than expected. However, the overall operating rate of domestic styrene is relatively high, which is maintained at 80% – 85%, and the site supply is good. On the downstream side, the start-up of the three major downstream industries is still at a high level, which is conducive to the consumption of styrene in China. Although the start-up of EPS and PS will be significantly reduced near the Spring Festival, the impact of the domestic epidemic this year is relatively small, and the overall profit of the downstream industry is in an advantage. After the year, the downstream plants will start as scheduled, and the demand will recover from the expectation of rapid recovery. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, the whole country advocates celebrating the Chinese new year on the spot, and some factories are expected to start work ahead of schedule. Based on the cost boost and low inventory support, it is expected that the market will be stronger in the short term and consolidation may be greater.

Ethylene analysts of business society chemical branch think: at present, in terms of crude oil, the supply of oil market is tightening, the international oil price is rising, and the cost support is strong, so the data analysts of business society expect that the external price of ethylene will mainly rise next.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the domestic PP market was mainly consolidated in early February, and the spot prices of various brands were mixed. As of February 9, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) was about 8450 yuan / ton, up 0.40% from the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

PP upstream propylene, propylene prices began to decline at the end of last year, after the negative market began to change. At the end of last month, propylene prices fell rapidly again due to manufacturers’ heavy inventory pressure and poor delivery. At present, the crude oil price is good, the market is long and short mixed, the domestic propylene market lacks guidance direction, and the confidence in the market is insufficient. Future or shock consolidation based, do not rule out the possibility of a small increase.

The current propylene market is hard to say positive, PP cost side support is general. In January, Shijiazhuang closed petrochemical plants and downstream plants due to the epidemic situation. Meanwhile, logistics was also greatly affected, which had a negative impact on PP market. In February, it is reported that the inventory accumulation of the two oil and petrochemical companies is expected to start gradually before the festival. Downstream, due to the completion of stock preparation before the festival, the inventory position of plastic weaving and BOPP factories is relatively high. The stagflation adjustment of injection molding and wire drawing is also highly related to short-term oversupply, and new orders are mostly delivered after the festival. It is speculated that the mentality of downstream industry tends to wait-and-see and buy at bargain hunting after the festival. The external market remains firm, but due to transportation and other reasons affecting the import inflow, the impact on the domestic PP market may not be timely, and the medium and long term is still positive.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of February 9, the mainstream offer of Z30S (fiber) by domestic producers and traders had fallen slightly compared with the beginning of the month, with the price of about 8516.67 yuan / ton, a 1.16% drop compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. In terms of inventory, since the new year’s day, the inventory position of fiber PP production enterprises began to rise. In addition, the logistics and transportation were affected by holidays, the domestic fiber materials began to accumulate gradually, and the supply of goods was sufficient. In terms of operation rate, the number of maintenance units of domestic PP plants is decreasing, and affected by the increase of downstream orders, the general operation level is not low. Material PP fiber material after the festival or due to pre inventory and stagflation shock.

In early February, the trend of PP meltblown material continued to rise before, and the current meltblown PP price slightly recovered. As of February 9, the average quotation of pph-y1500 sample enterprises monitored by business society was 10866.67 yuan / ton. The overseas epidemic situation is complex. The rise at the end of last month was caused by the implementation of masks in some countries, resulting in large demand and the increase of domestic orders, which pushed up the price of meltblown materials. At present, the domestic epidemic prevention situation is generally stable except for a small-scale rebound in some areas, and the domestic supplies of masks and other epidemic prevention materials are abundant. The surplus of suppliers in the melt blown fabric manufacturing market has not improved, and the improvement of profit is limited. At the same time, the domestic melt blown PP is also affected by the Spring Festival holiday, and the logistics and production scheduling are mostly delayed. It is expected that the price trend of melt blown PP will be stable.

Future forecast

Business community PP analysts believe that: in early February domestic PP spot market consolidation. Upstream propylene market finishing operation, general support for PP cost side. About to enter the Spring Festival holiday, PP brand inventory has an upward trend, market stability is weak, market mentality is not strong. On the demand side, the downstream just needs to buy, and the enthusiasm is general. It is expected that the market of PP after the festival will be weak due to the bad effect of fundamentals.

From February 1, 2021 to February 5, 2021, the crude benzene market price was mainly downward, and the domestic ex factory price was 2976.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3317 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly rise of 11.45%.

On February 4, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan / ton compared with the previous day, and 5150 yuan / ton was implemented after the adjustment. Among them, Qilu Petrochemical Company implemented 4950 yuan / ton. It’s only five days since the last price adjustment on January 30, with a continuous rise of 350 yuan / ton within five days.

Driven by the sharp rise in the price of pure benzene, a product related to the industrial chain, the price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong rose sharply for two consecutive days from Wednesday, with a cumulative increase of 950 yuan / ton. On Thursday, the mainstream coking enterprises in Shandong increased the bidding price of crude benzene by 450 yuan / ton. In recent years, the profit of coking enterprises is high, the price of coke has reached the highest point in nearly 10 years, the enterprises are actively starting, and the crude benzene supply is sufficient. As a substitute for pure benzene, the trend of downstream hydrogenated benzene is basically consistent with that of pure benzene. Driven by the market price and the improvement of purchasing enthusiasm in East China, the market of hydrogenated benzene has been rising all the way. Although the price in Shandong rose late, it rose a lot. The profit of hydrogenated benzene rebounded, the recent start-up was good, and the demand for crude benzene was well supported.

The recent start-up of hydrobenzene unit is good, and some enterprises that reduced the load in the early stage started to improve this week. However, there are still some enterprises that shut down last year that have not started yet.

The business association thinks that the sharp rise of pure benzene this time is mainly due to the release of good news from the supply side, which caused the centralized purchase in the market in a short period of time, leading the concentrated rise of market price. However, this time, the rise is relatively large and the time is relatively concentrated, and some of the post Festival gains have been digested in advance. When the stock tide is over, the price will gradually return to rationality.