1、 Price data
As of September 5, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 6702.50 yuan / ton, down 0.97% from 6768.25 yuan / ton on August 30. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 6500-6800 yuan / ton.
As of September 5, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 6515.00 yuan / ton, down 0.87% from 6572.50 yuan / ton on August 30. The actual transaction price of local refining straight run naphtha was about 6300-6600 yuan / ton.
On September 5, the naphtha commodity index was 82.72, the same as yesterday, down 19.39% from the highest point of 102.62 in the cycle (September 24, 2012), and up 95.83% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016（ Note: period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
This week, the price of refined naphtha continued to decline, the refined naphtha market was weak, the downstream just needed to purchase, and the market mentality was negative.
Upstream: international crude oil rose, mainly due to the expected warming of global economic recovery and favorable U.S. economic data. In addition, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised its oil demand forecast for next year, resulting in a strong increase in oil prices.
Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, toluene fell this week. The price of toluene was 5620.00 yuan / ton on September 5 and 5630.00 yuan / ton on September 30, down 0.18%. Mixed xylene fell this week. The price of mixed xylene was 5710.00 yuan / ton on September 5 and 5730.00 yuan / ton on August 30, down 0.35%. In terms of PX market, the trend of domestic PX price fell slightly this week. As of the weekend, the ex factory price of domestic PX was 7100 yuan / ton, down 2.74% from 7300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 35th week of 2021 (8.30-9.3), there are 8 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were coking coal (9.47%), power coal (4.16%) and coke (3.62%). There were 6 commodities with month on month decline, and the top 3 products were diesel (- 0.79%), gasoline (- 0.56%) and naphtha (- 0.48%). Both rose or fell by 1.4% this week.
3、 Future forecast
Energy analysts of business society believe that the recent rise of international crude oil, but the local refining naphtha market is weak, the terminal demand is weak, the market trading is less, the downstream is mainly on-demand procurement, and the market wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that the local refining naphtha market will be dominated by weak consolidation in the near future.
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