abstract

 

1。 Market review: in January, the price of raw coal in the upstream rose and fell, the cost side support weakened, and the epidemic prevention and control intensified in various places, resulting in the shortage of methanol logistics and the increase of freight. In addition, there was pressure to drain the warehouse before the Spring Festival holiday, and the methanol price in the main production areas gradually decreased. Under this influence, the main contract ma2105 of methanol futures also fluctuated downward.

 

2。 Price influencing factors: the overall supply of methanol increased in January, and the supply pressure will increase in the later period. However, it should be noted that the profit of methanol production unit will decline again. At the same time, with the arrival of the Spring Festival, some factories in the downstream areas of methanol will have a holiday ahead of schedule, and the resumption of work after the festival will also face uncertainty, and the demand will weaken. In addition, due to the impact of the Spring Festival and the epidemic situation, some enterprises in the main production areas took the initiative to go to the warehouse, and the inventory of methanol enterprises showed a low operating situation, and the import pressure decreased due to the expansion of the internal and external price difference. It is estimated that the port inventory will continue to go to the warehouse.

 

3。 Market outlook: on the whole, it is expected that the supply and demand will be weak in February, and the methanol market may continue to be weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the recovery progress of logistics and downstream demand after the festival. In terms of operation, it is suggested to deal with the interval shock, and the uncertainty is large after the festival, so it is better to light the warehouse for the festival.

 

One. Market Review

 

In January, the price of raw coal in the upstream rose and fell, the cost side support weakened, and the epidemic prevention and control intensified in various places, which led to the shortage of methanol logistics and the increase of freight. In addition, there was the pressure of warehouse discharge before the Spring Festival holiday, and the methanol price in the main production areas gradually decreased. Under this influence, the main contract ma2105 of methanol futures also fell. Due to the continuous reduction of inventory, the basis presents a backwardation structure, and the futures discount. In addition, due to the fact that some countries in the Middle East are still parking, the price difference between domestic and foreign equipment has been widened.

 

Two. Price factors

 

1。 Supply pressure is high, but profit declines again

 

In January, the methanol plant ran smoothly. As of January 29, the average start-up load of domestic methanol plant was 70.13%, down 1.08% from December. As the increase of domestic production in January was greater than the decrease of methanol import in December, the overall supply increased in January. However, the manufacturers’ strong willingness to discharge inventory led to the low inventory in the year. However, as the weather warms up, some of the methanol plants that have been shut down or overhauled may resume operation. This month, the new methanol production capacity is about 3.6 million tons. The market also has expectations for the later production. If there is no maintenance plan for the existing operating plants in the later period, the supply pressure of methanol in the later period will increase. However, it should be noted that the profit of methanol production unit is declining again.

 

2。 Low level operation of inventory and continuous de inventory

 

Affected by the Spring Festival and the epidemic situation, some enterprises in the main production areas took the initiative to go to the warehouse, and some new olefins were purchased stably, which led to the overall circulation of goods relatively stable. In January, the inventory of methanol enterprises showed a low operating situation, and the port also decreased due to the centralized delivery of goods downstream. For the coming February, the number of ships arriving in China from other regions of the Middle East will be significantly reduced, and the import pressure will be reduced due to the expansion of the internal and external price gap. It is estimated that the methanol import volume will be reduced to 810000-830000 tons in February, and the port inventory will continue to be depleted.

 

3。 Near the Spring Festival, downstream demand is weakening

 

With the arrival of the Spring Festival, some factories in the lower reaches of methanol have holidays ahead of schedule, and the demand for methanol is weakening. In addition, under the influence of the continuous weakening of methanol futures price, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the downstream, which is dominated by rigid demand procurement. In terms of downstream operation rate, there were mixed ups and downs in January. The traditional downstream operation rate of methanol declined as a whole. Although the consumption of methanol increased slightly this month, it is expected that the consumption of methanol will still fall in February.

 

As the main emerging downstream product of methanol, olefin, its operation rate rose and fell in January, with little change. In terms of unit operation, Ningbo Fude resumed operation at the end of the month, and Qinghai Salt Lake unit is scheduled to restart on February 8. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the upgrading of the national “plastic restriction order”. The olefin demand side may be affected, and it is expected that the olefin profit will not be greatly improved in the short term. Therefore, the possibility of sudden shutdown of the unit for maintenance cannot be ruled out.

 

Three. Prospects and suggestions

 

During the Spring Festival holiday in February, there is an early holiday in some downstream areas before the festival, and affected by public health events, the recovery time of terminal demand after the Spring Festival is uncertain, and the pre-sale situation in coastal areas is not optimistic. However, from February to March, foreign overhaul units are still relatively concentrated, but new units are still put into production in China in the first quarter, and it is expected that the internal and external supply differentiation will be serious. On the whole, the supply and demand are weak. The methanol market may continue to be weak in February. We need to pay attention to the progress of logistics and downstream demand recovery after the festival.

 

In terms of operation, it is suggested to deal with the interval shock, and the uncertainty is large after the festival, so it is better to light the warehouse for the festival.

Sulfamic acid

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of February 3, the quotation of pet water bottle manufacturers was 6066.67 yuan / ton, and the market price of PET bottle chips rose by 9.64% compared with the same period last month. Now the price range of mainstream manufacturers is around 6100-6200 yuan / ton. Near the Spring Festival, most manufacturers are on vacation, with insufficient operating rate, flat downstream demand and stable stock mentality.

 

The domestic PET bottle chip market negotiation center is relatively high, and the price has increased, with an increase of 100-200 yuan / ton. The downstream just needs to purchase, and the willingness to stock is not strong. The upstream dual raw materials present an upward trend, which still has support for pet cost. In the short term, the PET bottle chip market is relatively strong.

 

PTA in the upstream is running strongly, the market operation rate is stable, the rising trend of ethylene glycol is steady, the focus of discussion is on the high side, and the polyester bottle chip market has formed a good support.

 

On February 2, the rubber and plastic index was 720 points, up 3 points from yesterday, down 32.08% from 1060 points (2012-03-14), the highest point in the cycle, and up 36.36% from 528 points, the lowest point on April 6, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

 

Business community pet analysts believe that: in the short term, the pet market remains strong. (the above prices are provided by major pet manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by business pet analysts. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more details.)

sulphamic acid

From the trend chart, it can be seen that the domestic price of Dy 2.31 million yuan / ton, Dy 2.29 million yuan / ton, Dy 2.775 million yuan / ton, and TB 2.825 million yuan / ton in the domestic market.

 

There are several reasons for the sharp rise of domestic heavy rare earth market prices. First, Myanmar’s political situation is turbulent, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products. The import source has decreased significantly. The sharp contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic heavy rare earth market has led to a sharp rise in the price of heavy rare earth. Second, the domestic rare earth purchase and storage plan is a good support for domestic heavy rare earth prices. In the purchase and storage plan, medium and heavy rare earth accounts for a large proportion of annual output, which is expected to have a greater impact on the supply, demand and price of medium and heavy rare earth. Third, in recent years, the downstream demand has been rising, the application of new energy has been growing rapidly, and the demand for permanent magnet has increased significantly, which has brought the greatest positive support to the heavy rare earth market. The price of heavy rare earth market has been rising continuously. Due to the tight supply of terbium market and the imbalance between supply and demand, the price of terbium market has reached a high level.

 

According to the monitoring of the business society, the price index of the domestic rare earth market rose. According to the rare earth plate index of the business society, the rare earth index on February 1 was 473 points, which was the same as yesterday. Compared with the highest 1000 points in the cycle (2011-12-06), it decreased by 52.70%, and increased by 74.54% compared with the lowest 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

 

The domestic rare earth index began to rise in November 2020. In the past three months, the rare earth index of business community has risen by about 100 points, and the price trend of domestic light rare earth market can not be ignored. Domestic sales of new energy vehicles have increased, and terminal industries such as wind power and electronic products have developed rapidly. As the epidemic situation slows down, the capacity utilization rate of downstream manufacturers continues, and demand is mainly based on demand procurement. The demand for NdFeB is still high. The high prosperity of new energy vehicles and consumer electronics industry also promotes the rise of rare earth prices. According to the data, the global demand for high-performance NdFeB is mainly concentrated in the automotive sector (nearly 40% for traditional vehicles and 12% for new energy vehicles), while the rest, such as wind power, consumer electronics, variable frequency air conditioning and energy-saving electrical appliances, account for 8% – 10%. Downstream demand rose, and domestic light rare earth market prices continued to rise. Recently, the price of terbium Series in domestic heavy rare earth market has reached a 10-year high, and the price of its own series continues to rise.

 

On January 15, 2021, the Ministry of industry and information technology openly solicited opinions on the rare earth management regulations (Draft), releasing the signal of standardizing the management of the rare earth industry and promoting the high-quality development of the industry. There are 29 pieces in the draft, which clarify the division of responsibilities of rare earth management, the approval system of rare earth mining and smelting separation investment projects, and the total amount index management system. It also emphasizes strengthening the management of the whole industry chain of rare earth, strengthening supervision and management. The state has made corresponding adjustments to the development of rare earth industry. The rare earth industry is developing towards high quality, and the policies are favorable to support the development of rare earth industry The local market price rose sharply.

 

With the continuous volume of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, the demand for rare earth will continue to increase, which is expected to drive the further growth of demand. The global supply gap of rare earth is expected to continue to expand, the domestic demand for rare earth will remain high, the domestic supply of rare earth is still tight, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the rare earth market is sharp. Business analysts expect the price of rare earth market in the later period Or will continue to rise.

sulphamic acid

1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic market price of mixed xylene showed an upward trend this week. The price of xylene was 4230 yuan / ton on January 24 and 4350 yuan / ton on this Sunday (January 31), up 120 yuan / ton or 2.84% from last week.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

Within the week, Sinopec’s mixed xylene increased by 100-200 yuan / ton. Xylene supply was stable in the week, and the dealers had a good attitude of supporting the price. In terms of external market, as of January 29, the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was 599 US dollars / ton, up 21.5 US dollars / ton or 3.72% on January 22, and the reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 613 US dollars / ton, up 20.5 US dollars / ton or 3.46% on January 22. Xylene inventory in East China ports this week was about 76900 tons, down 11000 tons from last week.

 

In terms of crude oil, the news of Iraq’s decision to make compensatory production cuts at the beginning of this week supported the crude oil market, but the epidemic situation was still severe, curbing the demand of the crude oil market. On January 22, Brent fell 0.095 USD / barrel, or 0.17%; WTI fell 0.19 USD / barrel, or 0.36%.

 

Downstream, PX market, domestic PX prices stabilized this week, the weekend average price at 5200 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decline of 24.64%. The domestic PX operating rate is about 60%. This week, the operation rate of p-xylene plant in Asia dropped to 60%, the supply of PX in Asia decreased, and the external price of PX remained volatile this week. As of the end of the week, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia was US $665-667 / T FOB Korea and US $683-685 / t CFR China.

 

In terms of PTA market, PTA in East China rebounded after a slight decline this week. On January 31, the price was 3856.67 yuan / ton, up 0.41% compared with last week and down 21.06% year on year. The domestic PTA start-up rate is above 87%. The planned overhaul of Ningbo Yisheng 2 million ton plant will be carried out from January 24.

 

In terms of ox market, the price of ox remained stable this week, with the price of ox in East China at 4700 yuan / ton. Sinopec’s o-benzene price was temporarily stable, the external quotation was adjusted in a volatile manner, and the supply of o-benzene was stable; at the end of the month, the price of phthalic anhydride rebounded, the demand for o-benzene rose, the rising power of o-benzene was released, the rising power of o-benzene increased, and it was expected that o-benzene would hit the bottom and rebound.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

 

The downstream terminals are shut down one after another, the logistics is reduced, and the mixed xylene market is expected to enter a stable price consolidation period. Continue to pay attention to the downstream purchasing situation, as well as the impact of crude oil and external market on the price of mixed xylene.

Sulfamic acid

1、 Price data

 

As of January 29, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic refining naphtha was 5550.00 yuan / ton, down 0.13% from 5557.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The actual transaction price of refining naphtha was about 5500 yuan / ton.

 

On January 29, the naphtha commodity index was 68.50, unchanged from yesterday, down 33.25% from 102.62 (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 62.17% from 42.24, the lowest point on July 19, 2016. (Note: period refers to from September 1, 2012 to now)

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

This week, the price of naphtha from local refineries dropped slightly. Refineries were active in shipping, mainly in destocking.

 

Upstream: U.S. crude oil stocks are declining, the U.S. dollar is weakening, and the global epidemic is still serious. The market is more concerned about the delay of vaccination and new travel restrictions that may depress demand. This week, WTI crude oil prices rose 0.13% and Brent crude oil prices fell 0.56%.

 

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, toluene continued to rise in China this week. On January 25, the price of toluene was 4150 yuan / ton; on January 29, the price of toluene was 4225 yuan / ton, up 75 yuan / ton, or 1.81%. This week, the domestic market price of mixed xylene showed an upward trend. On January 25, xylene price was 4230 yuan / ton; on January 29, xylene price was 4320 yuan / ton, up 90 yuan / ton, up 2.13%. In terms of PX market, the trend of domestic p-xylene ex factory price was temporarily stable this week. The domestic PX operating rate was about 60%. The average price at the weekend was 5200 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the price at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decline of 24.64%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to the energy analysts of business society, the naphtha market is supported by the international crude oil and domestic terminal market in the near future, but affected by the domestic epidemic, the logistics is limited, and refineries are actively de stocking at the end of the year. It is expected that the price of locally refined hydrogenated naphtha will be stable in the near future, at about 5500 yuan / ton.

sulphamic acid