1、 Price data
As of January 29, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic refining naphtha was 5550.00 yuan / ton, down 0.13% from 5557.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The actual transaction price of refining naphtha was about 5500 yuan / ton.
On January 29, the naphtha commodity index was 68.50, unchanged from yesterday, down 33.25% from 102.62 (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 62.17% from 42.24, the lowest point on July 19, 2016. (Note: period refers to from September 1, 2012 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
This week, the price of naphtha from local refineries dropped slightly. Refineries were active in shipping, mainly in destocking.
Upstream: U.S. crude oil stocks are declining, the U.S. dollar is weakening, and the global epidemic is still serious. The market is more concerned about the delay of vaccination and new travel restrictions that may depress demand. This week, WTI crude oil prices rose 0.13% and Brent crude oil prices fell 0.56%.
Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, toluene continued to rise in China this week. On January 25, the price of toluene was 4150 yuan / ton; on January 29, the price of toluene was 4225 yuan / ton, up 75 yuan / ton, or 1.81%. This week, the domestic market price of mixed xylene showed an upward trend. On January 25, xylene price was 4230 yuan / ton; on January 29, xylene price was 4320 yuan / ton, up 90 yuan / ton, up 2.13%. In terms of PX market, the trend of domestic p-xylene ex factory price was temporarily stable this week. The domestic PX operating rate was about 60%. The average price at the weekend was 5200 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the price at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decline of 24.64%.
3、 Future forecast
According to the energy analysts of business society, the naphtha market is supported by the international crude oil and domestic terminal market in the near future, but affected by the domestic epidemic, the logistics is limited, and refineries are actively de stocking at the end of the year. It is expected that the price of locally refined hydrogenated naphtha will be stable in the near future, at about 5500 yuan / ton.
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