According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on November 8th, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal # 441 market was 12120 yuan/ton. Compared with November 3rd (silicon metal # 441 market price of 12070 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41%; Compared with October 1st (market price of 11960 yuan/ton for silicon metal # 441), the price has increased by 160 yuan/ton, a 1.34% increase.

From the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week (11.3-11.8), the overall market price of domestic silicon metal # 441 showed a slight increase and then remained stable. At the beginning of the week, some regions in China saw an upward trend in the market for silicon metal # 441. The overall focus of negotiations for silicon metal # 441 has shifted upwards, with an increase of 50-100 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the overall stability of the silicon metal market remained dominant.

Market Price Trends of Metal Silicon

Brand number/ Region/ November 8th

#441./Tianjin area/ Around 11900~12100 yuan/ton

#441./Huangpu Port area/ Around 12000~12200 yuan/ton

#441./Kunming area/ Around 12200~12400 yuan/ton

#553 (oxygen supply)/ Kunming area/ Around 11700~11900 yuan/ton

#553 (without oxygen)/ Sichuan region/ Around 11200~11400 yuan/ton

In terms of construction: Currently, the overall construction rate of metal silicon enterprises in northern China has not changed much, while the construction rate of metal silicon enterprises in southwestern China remains relatively weak.

In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the overall supply side of the silicon metal market has narrowed, and the phenomenon of accumulated inventory in the market has eased. The overall circulation of the silicon metal spot market is tight, and some silicon companies’ quotations are mainly firm. In terms of demand, currently, the downstream market for metallic silicon mainly focuses on on-demand procurement and small transactions.

In terms of inventory: According to incomplete statistics, on November 1st, the estimated social inventory of domestic silicon metal was 502000 tons. Compared with the previous week, the inventory increased by about 4000 tons, with the growth part coming from on-site factory inventory, an increase of 5000 tons, and a decrease of 1000 tons in delivery inventory.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is slightly light, and downstream users are cautious in purchasing, mainly based on orders and quantities. The overall supply and demand of the metal silicon market are weakly balanced. The metal silicon data analyst of Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be paid more attention to.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market rose and then fell back in October, and the price levels of various brand products basically fell back to the beginning of the month. As of October 31st, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic manufacturers and traders is around 7585.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.09% compared to the price level on October 1st.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of international crude oil, there was a significant surge during the National Day holiday, and the market was booming. But as consumption becomes increasingly weak, the market is turning into a weak pressure. At the end of the month, international crude oil futures fell sharply, and the upstream support of PP fell back. On the other hand, the contraction of propylene supply is favorable for the market, but with the gradual caution in chasing high consumption, there will be a slowdown in the increase at the end of the month accompanied by a narrow correction. Domestic supply of methanol has recovered in the early stage, but there is a lack of strong support on the supply and demand side, and prices are running at a stalemate. Previously, the price of propane was relatively stable due to internal low and external high pulling each other. Overall, the prices of PP raw materials fluctuated in October, with moderate support on the cost side.

Supply side:

Since October, the load level of domestic PP enterprises has been reduced due to the implementation of equipment maintenance plans by some enterprises. In the first half of the month, companies such as Guangzhou Petrochemical, Hainan Refining and Chemical, and Daxie Petrochemical all had equipment maintenance plans. In the second half of the month, companies such as Jinergy Chemical and Zhongjing Petrochemical also had some equipment undergoing maintenance. The maintenance production lines were concentrated in the southern region of China, and the overall industry load fluctuated from 77% at the beginning of the month to around 76.5%. At present, the inventory of two barrels of PP oil in China is stable at around 765000 tons, which has decreased compared to the previous period. But the supply is still at a sufficient level. Overall, the supply side provides sufficient support for PP spot prices.

In terms of demand:

The demand for PP has only slightly increased in October, and the load on end enterprises has slightly risen. The consumption of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice continues to increase, while the storage capacity of plastic weaving enterprises generally decreases, and the willingness to build warehouses has increased. In terms of fiber materials, due to the cooling weather, downstream consumption of PP non-woven fabrics has also rebounded, which has to some extent boosted the demand for this type of PP material. However, with the improvement of macro commodity market sentiment and the exhaustion of positive factors, chasing high orders has returned to caution, and the market momentum has stopped heating up due to its impact. The demand side’s support for PP spot goods is not outstanding.

Future forecast

The domestic PP market price rose in October and then fell back. Fundamentally speaking, the comprehensive support of upstream raw materials for PP is average, and the demand side is slowly heating up. However, the increase in the first half of the month to some extent suppressed market trading in the second half, coupled with the weakening of the impact of loose funding policies and the negative impact of industry expansion in the fourth quarter. In the short term, the recent positive news is focused on the increase in e-commerce consumption, and it is expected that PP prices may be able to stabilize and enter a consolidation operation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been weak and declining since October. As of October 31, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 16868 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.99% from 17942 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The weather in the main production areas of natural rubber continues to improve, and the supply of raw materials from domestic and foreign production areas is gradually increasing, resulting in a decline in natural rubber raw material prices. As of October 31st, the price of Thai glue was 69.00 baht/kg, a decrease of 11.54% from the price of 78.00 baht/kg at the end of September; The purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production areas in China is 17900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.76% from 18600 yuan/ton at the end of September.

Natural rubber inventory increased slightly at the end of the month, with a slightly bearish impact on the natural rubber market. As of October 27, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 408200 tons, an increase of 5700 tons compared to the previous period and a slight decrease from 411800 tons at the end of September.

Since October, downstream tire production has remained stable with slight fluctuations, and demand is facing the urgent support of the natural rubber market. As of October 25th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.9%.

Market forecast: Currently, domestic and international raw material supply is increasing, and prices are falling; Under the policy of promoting consumption, all tire enterprises are operating steadily, which provides certain support for natural rubber; Overall, there is currently a significant cost disadvantage in the short term, and it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly experience range fluctuations in the near future.

In October 2024, the market trend of the upstream main raw material for adhesive short fiber dissolution slurry remained strong and stable, while the auxiliary material market continued to rise in price. The cost performance was good, and some sources of goods were tight and inventory was low. At the same time, downstream markets were concentrated in signing orders, and the flow of goods was stable. Market favorable factors dominated, and the market focus of the adhesive short fiber market shifted upward. The downstream cotton yarn market has a flat trading atmosphere, with prices rising narrowly with the raw material viscose staple fiber.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 30th, the domestic ex factory price of 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber was 13820 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan/ton or 1.32% from the beginning of the month, and an increase of 7.13% from the beginning of the year.

Cost side support remains firm and stable

The market price of the main raw material dissolution slurry on the upstream side remains firm and stable. As of the end of the month, the price of domestically produced dissolution slurry is around 7800 yuan/ton, the price of broad-leaved slurry on the outer side is around 960 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous slurry is around 1040 US dollars/ton. The prices of auxiliary materials in the market have both shown an upward trend. As of the end of the month, the average price of 32% liquid caustic soda in the domestic market was 917.77 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.51% compared to the beginning of the month; The average market price of 98% sulfuric acid is 331 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.16% compared to the beginning of the month. Overall, the upstream main raw material dissolution slurry market has seen a narrow upward trend, while the auxiliary material sulfuric acid market and liquid alkali market have both shown an upward trend. The cost side support for the adhesive short fiber market has strengthened.

Low inventory level

Most of the adhesive short fiber market devices are operating stably, with high market supply and a daily operating rate of around 85.8% in the industry. Due to the increase in downstream demand, the overall inventory level of the adhesive short fiber market continues to decline, and some models in the market are experiencing tight shipments. The supply side still has positive support.

Demand side support is still limited

The trading atmosphere in the downstream cotton yarn market is flat, with prices rising narrowly. As of October 30th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class) was 17700 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.71% from the beginning of the month. Although the demand in the terminal market is still weak, the downstream vortex spinning market equipment continues to increase, and yarn mills are holding onto the demand for essential orders, resulting in an increase in demand for adhesive short fibers. However, the new round of orders in the market is still expected to last for about a month, with limited support from the demand side.

Future forecast

The upstream raw material market prices may continue to show a strong trend, while the on-site supply is tight. Downstream yarn factories are following up as needed, and the market has entered a new round of order delivery period. Many adhesive short fiber manufacturers are queuing up to ship, and coupled with the lack of significant improvement in the end market, it may be difficult for the demand side to improve. Therefore, it is expected that the demand side of adhesive short fiber will perform averagely in the later stage. Business analysts predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will maintain stable prices in the short term, with limited price fluctuations, and prices are expected to be between 13700-13900 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method gold red stone titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Shengyi Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market fell in October. On October 1st, the average price of titanium dioxide was 15700 yuan/ton, and on October 29th, it was 15316.67 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 2.44%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market experienced a decline in October, with a light market trend. The price of raw material titanium concentrate continues to decline, and the price of sulfuric acid in domestic regions is fluctuating, with average cost support. The price of titanium dioxide was lowered in the first ten days. In the second half of the year, the overall market trend did not show substantial improvement, and there was significant pressure on the shipment of titanium dioxide. In addition, due to environmental inspections and other factors, some companies began to reduce or stop production. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid method pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 15000-16100 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14000 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

According to customs data, the import volume of titanium dioxide in China in September 2024 was 8310.02 tons, a year-on-year increase of 22.62% and a month on month increase of 29.27%. From January to September 2024, China imported approximately 71500 tons of titanium dioxide, a year-on-year increase of 27.19% compared to last year, with an increase of approximately 15300 tons in import volume. In September, the import of sulfuric acid titanium dioxide was 3718.82 tons, a month on month increase of 42.97%. The cumulative import of sulfuric acid titanium dioxide from January to September was 23400 tons. In September, the import of chlorinated titanium dioxide was 4591.20 tons, an increase of 19.95% compared to the previous month. The cumulative import of chlorinated titanium dioxide from January to September was 48100 tons.

According to customs data, China’s titanium dioxide exports in September 2024 were 146800 tons, a decrease of 8.67% compared to the previous month and an increase of 1.23% compared to the same period last year. From January to September, China’s cumulative export of titanium dioxide was about 1.4397 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.76%, and the export volume increased by about 185100 tons. In September 2024, the export of sulfuric acid titanium dioxide was 119700 tons, a decrease of 10.82% compared to the previous month. The cumulative export of sulfuric acid titanium dioxide from January to September was 1177900 tons. In September 2024, the export of chlorinated titanium dioxide was 27000 tons, a month on month increase of 2.30%. The cumulative export of chlorinated titanium dioxide from January to September was 261700 tons.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate continued to decline in October. At present, the spot prices in the market are relatively stagnant. Due to the impact of the central environmental protection team’s entry into Sichuan Province’s environmental protection inspection, the supply of titanium ore has decreased, and the quotes from beneficiation plants have remained firm. Downstream titanium dioxide enterprises have a weak market and are more cautious about titanium concentrate, with strong pressure on prices and cautious procurement. As of now, the price of 38-42 grade titanium ore without tax is around 1500-1550 yuan/ton, 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate without tax is around 2100-2150 yuan/ton, and 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2250-2350 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price of Panxi titanium concentrate continues to rise, and the specific transaction price will be discussed on a case by case basis.

According to customs data, China imported 267700 tons of titanium ore in September 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.21% and a month on month decrease of 57.17%, with a monthly average price of $306.32 per ton; From January to September 2024, China imported approximately 3.5837 million tons of titanium ore, a year-on-year increase of 8.51%, with an increase of approximately 280900 tons in import volume.

In September 2024, China exported 5216.80 tons of titanium ore, a year-on-year increase of 738.71% and a month on month decrease of 17.40%; From January to September 2024, China’s cumulative export of titanium ore was about 57700 tons, an increase of 193.52% year-on-year, and the export volume increased by about 38000 tons.

3、 Future forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the price of titanium concentrate has declined this month, while the price of sulfuric acid has fluctuated, and the cost support is average. Downstream market demand remains weak, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment and low buying sentiment. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will operate weakly and steadily in the short term, depending on downstream market demand. The actual transaction price will be negotiated on a case by case basis.